The sector continues to plod along. I think there is some interesting news with the oral GLP launch and while it certainly has import for the companies involved, I think the sector does best when there is a big launch that creates buzz outside the sector. It is the generalists that really push bull markets […]
January 20th Biotech Update
Heading into JPM, the sector was navigating a transition from volatility toward selective strength. After a challenging 2025 for venture funding and IPO activity, investors showed cautious optimism driven by increased M&A and improved clinical pipelines. Large pharmas continued to balance patent cliffs with new launches, while emerging biotech companies emphasized differentiated platforms in oncology, […]
January 9th Biotech Update- Pre-JPM
Biotech enters the JPM with constructive but selective risk appetite: public equity windows are open intermittently, valuation dispersion remains wide, and financing is available for differentiated clinical assets while earlier or “me-too” stories still struggle to clear diligence and pricing. The macro backdrop is supportive relative to the prior two years, where markets are rewarding […]
December 8th Biotech Update
Over the past two weeks, the biotech market has been shaped by a mix of both supportive macro forces and pockets of volatility tied to shifting risk sentiment. Cooling inflation data and growing expectations for rate cuts have provided a constructive backdrop, improving access to capital and lifting appetite for higher-beta sectors such as biotech. […]
November 4th Biotech Update
The sector remains volatile even as it seems to have emerged from the recent depression in the sector. There will be periods of increase volatility and pullbacks but I still think we have emerged from the doldrums and the general movement going forward will be higher even if we do have some periods of negative […]
October 27th Biotech Update
Some fireworks to start the week, although the news came out yesterday about the large deal. The more we see deals with continued lower movement of rates and the more we get some regulatory consistency, the better for the sector. Ideally we would like to see the government re-open to get the FDA working again […]
October 16th Biotech Update
News continues to be generally positive for the sector and there is no reason to suspect that the broader trend for the sector will be higher. Obviously, there will be retrenchments and pullbacks but those will be opportunities to add to positions just as the rallies in the bear market were opportunities to trim positions. […]
October 14th Biotech Update
Over the past few days, biotech and pharmaceutical stocks have seen mixed but generally positive moves sparked by deal news and strong individual performers. This environment reinforces the more positive sentiment around the sector but with a preference now being placed on pipelines with strong differentiation, regulatory path clarity, or acquisition potential. It seems the […]
October 10th Biotech Update
There is a lot still to summarize and talk about and I will be slowly chipping away at what I see are key developments for the broader market as well as those companies I have followed in the past. This has a little bit of both to end the week. BTIG hosted a webcast with […]
October 8th Biotech Update
Biotech sentiment is cautiously constructive: the XBI is up about 15% year-to-date which is outpacing the broader health sector. While we have seen deals, the next stage would be the IPO window creaking open again—2025 has logged ~165 U.S. IPOs across sectors and fresh biopharma filings like BillionToOne point to improving risk appetite, even if […]
October 6th Biotech Update
It has been a little while but my job has been quite busy but I am going to get back into a rhythm of putting out notes. To be fair, the market has done better without me and it finally seems like sentiment has turned. Deals, data, rates, and reduced uncertainty have all either moved […]
July 22nd Biotech Update
There has been a lot of movement in the market, but I would rather focus on the bigger picture and news that could really have larger implications. I think M&A has picked up and will continue to be a story but that has not been the news recently. SRPT has been the most dramatic […]
June 24th Biotech Update
Looks like events are settling down in the Middle East and while there are still risks, it looks like everyone is taking the offramps (for now). This should decrease the price of oil and increase the risk tolerance of the market. Of course, the sector did not do great when it appeared to settle down […]
June 18th Biotech Update
I feel worried saying this but the sector is doing well at least when one looks at the chart. This certainly does not mean that the headwinds and concerns are suddenly going away but bull markets are built on climbing a wall of worries and there are a lot of worries that could be climbed […]
June 16 Biotech Update
Despite all of the news in the market recently, we actually seem to be in a good place (at least as I look at the chart). If you take a step back, we are around 20% higher since the panic lows and there can be what looks like trend higher. There are higher highs and […]
May 22nd Biotech Update
Nothing is ever clean in the sector (at least over the past couple of years). What could have been a nice move to higher highs has been put on pause. This is not to say that is off the table or that the sector has broken down as that is not the case at all. […]
April 21st Biotech Update
It has been a little wild in the sector in terms of news (MFN pricing executive order) but if you take a step back and look at the chart, it does not look nearly as bad as it sounded when the announcement happened. Just imagine that you know nothing of the news and look at […]
April 5th Biotech Update
So, we are at the area where we have bounced off of what might be a major bottom and have basically closed a gap to the upside. The market is overbought and that is likely the case for the sector as well. All of this being said, it seem like a natural place for a […]
April 30th Biotech Update
The sector could be doing worse but even with bad economic numbers and the market down a little, the sector is not only holding up well it is actually green (marginally so but still green when the market is red). This lends credence to my belief that we may have put in a long term […]
April 29th Biotech Update
I see a lot more green on my screen than the XBI seems to indicate but I see this as generally a productive day for the sector. There is a lot of news to digest that just came out today and so some I may leave until tomorrow. Overall, I still think we have likely […]
