August 11th Biotech Update

Low key, I think the sector might be turning the corner.  I am not convinced and there is work to be done but the XBI looks like it could be setting up higher lows and, if we get above $130, higher highs.  I think at the very least the clear downtrend has become a lot […]

August 9th Biotech Update

A sort of flat opening for the week, which is not ideal but it certainly could be worse.  We have earnings this week but there is not anything this week that should be thesis changing for the sector.  Obviously earnings can be important for individual stocks but I do not foresee anything coming out of […]

August 6th Biotech Update

The sector has a real chance to change the narrative and sentiment.  Yesterday we broke above the recent lower high (just barely but we were above it for a little).  That breaks the clear downtrend but obviously does not mean that it is over.  If we can reverse higher today and build off of that […]

August 5th Biotech Update

Things got a little better for the sector with some green but we really need to get some momentum and accelerate to the upside.  It is too easy for the bears to sell any rally and short without any real fear that the sector might move against a short position (or move against it more […]

August 4th Biotech Update

I have to say yesterday was pretty disappointing.  We finally get some M&A and while it is not massive it is in a hot therapeutic modality and the sector trades lower.  One would have thought that would have been enough to at least get a little rally if not something more meaningful.  Perhaps it is […]

August 2nd Biotech Update

With another big week of earnings, we have another potential to get some interest in the sector but last week was a good week of earnings and another bad week for the sector.  Everyone is still waiting on the big exciting thesis changing news and/or M&A, which has been notably lacking in the sector this […]

July 30th Biotech Update

Unfortunately we were unable to string together some momentum for the sector.  It could have be worse but ideally we would have built on some of our earlier strength this week as opposed to bounce around with some weakness mixed with the strength.  It is not surprising given the downtrend we have established but there […]

July 29th Biotech Update

The sector got the bounce yesterday and we really need it to continue for at least a couple of days.  It is not clear if this was simply a technical bounce or related to the generally positive earnings but it is certainly nice to see and will be better if it is not a single […]

July 28th Biotech Update

I think we should at the point where we can start to expect at least a dead cat bounce (and perhaps if we are lucky an actual reversal but I would not hold my breadth for that).  I would have thought a turnaround Tuesday would have been in order but not quite.  We are entering […]

July 26th Biotech Update

It should be a busy week with some earnings and the Fed meeting.  Of course there is nothing to start the week so we are back to the negative bias in the sector, which is not surprising.  I still think the path of least resistance at this point is lower but with the potential of […]

July 23rd Biotech Update

There is nothing yesterday that has dissuaded me of my negative view of the sector.  It is always possible that the downtrend ends but my mantra is always that assume trends remain until proven otherwise.  As such my base case (until shown otherwise) is that the sector is going to making its way to a […]

July 22nd Biotech Update

I am back and it is going to take a little bit of time for me to catch up and get a sense of what the sector has been doing.  It seems like I took vacation at the right time as I did not have to see the downtrend that appears to have developed.  When […]

July 9th Biotech Update

I would have thought the sector would have provided us with a more clear signal as to its next move but I look at the sector right now and see both upside and downside potential.   Clearly we broke below the recent lows and potentially ruined a clear uptrend but if we are able to set […]

July 7th Biotech Update

The broader market did not help yesterday but we certainly did not ruin the potential uptrend but we did nothing to confirm it either.  I think another decent sized down day today would be a problem but we have almost been straight down the past week so a snap back rally would not be a […]

July 6th Biotech Update

Hey, guess what?  A long weekend and still no deals.  We should not be surprised at this point but it remains disappointing.  I believe that most of us are at the acceptance level of the situation and no longer think that M&A is going to happen but it is not a situation that is sustainable.  […]

July 1st Biotech Update

So one could look at the trading this week and be discouraged.  I look at it (so far) and see a bad week but one that does not actually point to an imminent break to the downside.  This is not to say that everything is sunshine but the intraday low yesterday looks like it could […]

June 28th Biotech Update

I was thinking we might have had a little more momentum this morning with the data this past weekend but it is pretty muted so far.  Perhaps the lack of M&A was disappointing or perhaps there is not a broader read-through from the data or perhaps the momentum is going to build throughout the day.  […]

June 25th Biotech Update

The sector might be getting some momentum and working its way to the $142 level in the near term.  I think we need to at least get to that level (which I think is likely) and ideally make a move above it (possible).  I think if you stare closely enough at the chart you could […]

June 24th Biotech Update

The sector is hot today and it is not precisely clear as to why.  There has been some news that seems to be read as positive but this still looks to me like a sector that lacks a clear conviction.  Usually you could see a day like this and then expect some positive momentum for […]

June 23rd Biotech Update

Listless.  That might not be the right word but that is how the sector feels.  On a given day it does not feel that way as the daily moves seem like there is some conviction behind them but the daily moves do not seem connected and do not seem to follow through from one day […]