We are very close to breaking out. I think it would be a nice way to end the week to get that initial breakout and run higher but there is actually not a lot of news that could drive it. Rates expectations are a little less dovish with most now not expecting the first rate […]
February 22nd Biotech Update
Are we at the pullbacks that refresh stage? The past couple of days have not been great but we are still hanging out at the top end of the range. This bouncing around at these levels is resetting any overbought conditions and makes a breakout more likely to cause a run as opposed to being […]
February 20th Biotech Update
We are very close to breaking out on the XBI. One more very strong day or a couple days of strength would be enough. I think the charts are not that overbought and so we have a decent chance to sustain the breakout but one could also look at the chart and see a clear […]
February 16th Biotech Update
We seem to have quickly moved on from the rate and CPI scare. The sector bounced back from what looked to be the bottom of a range to the upper end of a range. I went from paying attention to $86 for a breakdown to now the $94.40 range for a potential breakout. I am […]
February 14th Biotech Update
Just when you think rates and inflation no longer matter as much to the sector and market they come back from the dead. Whether this is a one off event or something that matter longer term is still not known. We have not really broken support in any way and so we can still look […]
February 12th Biotech Update
I feel like the sector is in a better place to start this week than the start of last week. I have been thinking that we are closer to the end of the consolidation than the beginning and the trading last week reinforced that view. If we can build on that move early this week, […]
February 8th Biotech Update
Still in the choppy sort of market but we are at least holding up. I understand the annoyance that the broader market is doing well and the sector is really lagging from relative sense but when the sector runs it will make up a lot of this underperformance. January was a massive month for follow […]
February 6th Biotech Update
It was a nice day yesterday not because of a massive rally but one where we started solidly red but rebounded into the green. It is always nice to see those reversals and it was not as if it was a quick dip into the red but one that was pretty sustained for most of […]
February 5th Biotech Update
I would not say that we are at the end of the chop for the sector but are probably closer to the end than the beginning. I saw some notes that blamed the lack of rate cuts on the market but I am not sure that is the issue. It is true that rates remain […]
February 2nd Biotech Update
I guess we are not done with rates quite yet. We do seem to be a little sensitive (at least more so than I would have thought). Fed day was not great but as rates fell, the sector did better. I think we are all done with being so tightly correlated with interest rates but […]
January 31st Biotech Update
We seem to be doing a little better today but not really getting any momentum to the upside. We have an upcoming rate decision but I doubt that will be market moving unless the commentary comes out unexpectedly bullish or bearish on rates. I suspect it will be continue to follow the data and while […]
January 30th Biotech Update
A mixed start to the week. Yesterday was quite positive and constructive and today we are giving up most of the gains. We seem to be in a choppy market for the sector and perhaps we are setting up for a more significant trend move (higher or lower) but I still think we are basically […]
January 26th Biotech Update
The sector is bouncing along and while it is underperforming the broader markets, I still see it as digesting the large move at the end of last year. I think this is how the sector works. A long period of underperformance followed by a short burst of large outperformance. It would be less stressful to […]
January 24th Biotech Update
The sector has been dragging for a little. Not really bouncing from the recent selling but also not accelerating to the downside. I still have no real conviction whether or not the next move is another leg lower or a bounce from here. I do have the conviction that even another leg lower does not […]
January 22nd Biotech Update
My call of post-JPM weakness has been accurate and while expected, it is not a great feeling especially with the broader market doing so well. I think we are in a zone where we could find some support, but I am not convinced that this is the level from which we bounce. The post-JPM weakness […]
January 19th Biotech Update
I was expecting weakness and that is what we have. I am not that concerned about the selling and even if it accelerates, I would still see it as typical for this time of year (especially after the strength the sector showed to end the year). There is a large move higher that needs to […]
January 17th Biotech Update
A little bit of expected weakness to start the week. I am not sure how much of a pullback is coming but I still think we are due for one. As I noted yesterday, it is perfectly consistent with previous patterns and this weakness could be more than just a couple of days but weeks […]
January 16th Biotech Update
JPM is over and it was an OK conference. It was not the best with deals but there was a big group right before the conference and so all in it was a hefty amount of deals. The conference appeared one of the more upbeat in recent years and that bodes well. I think we […]
January 11th Biotech Update
JPM has been a little slow on the news front. There were a couple of small deals and some rumors of others, but it really looks like December was the real flood of M&A as opposed to JPM. If we look at the past month or so, then the deals have been quite robust, just […]
January 8th Biotech Update
I got dismissed early for the day from jury duty (have to be back bright and early tomorrow) and so I wanted to get some quick thoughts on the start of JPM week, so I do not get too far behind. The sector started off a little weak but came back strong in the afternoon. […]
