March 13th Biotech Update

Quite the start to the week and it would be quite disappointing if all the news does not get at least a snap back rally in the sector but there are a lot of moving parts.  We have both major macro news as well as sector (and portfolio) news and I will cover them on […]

March 10th Biotech Update

We are up against it.  Either these mid-$70s hold on the XBI or we are heading down to around $60.  This is not a technical issue at work but two brutal fundamental issues that came to the fore the past couple of days.  I will talk through them as opposed to focusing on individual stocks.  […]

March 9th Biotech Update

I feel like we are in déjà vu all over again.  This year feels like last year where the sector underperforms when the market is weak and underperforms when it is strong.  Good news provides only a momentary boost only to be given back and bad news is punished severely.  All that being said we […]

March 8th Biotech Update

We remain at a precarious position for the sector and market in general.  We had a little bounce, but it was a disappointing ending to what could have been a nice day.  Those sorts of reversal do not signal strength.  To be fair, there was some more hawkish Fed talk and it is not necessarily […]

March 6th Biotech Update

The week ended on a positive note and it would be good to continue with that move as soon as possible this week.  I still sort of worry about the increased rates expectations and how that will ultimately play out in the market/sector.  Given the continued strength of the economy I think there is a […]

March 3rd Biotech Update

I am a little torn by the market and sector at this point.  Part of me sees the recent weakness and pullback as a natural consolidation and part of me sees it the start of the last major downside related to the rate hike cycle.  Expectations of rates have increased and I keep going back […]

March 1st Biotech (and Energy) Update

Well, well, well.  A lot happened in the neuro space where there was concerns that it would become significantly more restrictive but I think that is off the table.  Is the sector in a better place?  I think so as there are a set of broader overhangs that I think it has to work through.  […]

February 27th Biotech Update

It has gotten a little rough for the sector.  Where I thought we could ideally build on a potential breakout and setup a nice positive trend, the sector looks like it has failed to establish that new trend higher.  We are back to the old range and leaves it up in the air as to […]

February 17th Biotech Update

Just as we thought we were getting cleared of the Fed, they interjected themselves into the market again with perhaps longer rate hikes and perhaps even faster.  Whether that comes to pass or not remains to be seen but the market did not quite have the more hawkish tone priced into the valuations.  I do […]

February 15th Biotech Update

It is not the best start so far to the week but it certainly is not bad. We still have the chance to rally and I am a little encouraged by the market reaction to the hotter than expected CPI numbers.  It seems to me more signals that inflation and the Fed are losing their […]

February 13th Biotech Update

Not the greatest way to end the week as we clearly did not get that higher low that was the potential.  We still could get a nice little trend, but we cannot get any lower.  There is also a potential that we get back to the lower end of the old range, which would make […]

February 8th Biotech Update

It remains a slow week in terms of news and the sector has pulled back a little.  Given the Fed talk the other day, I can live with the little pullback and if take a larger view then yesterday could be another higher low.  Obviously we need to stay above it moving forward but there […]

February 6th Biotech Update

A relatively slow start to the week both in terms of news and trading.  Last week we had a lot of large cap earnings and earing season continues but Mondays tend to be a little slow on the reports.  We started the day red and are struggling to get to green.  That would be a […]

February 3rd Biotech Update

I think I was right that we were entering a new uptrend but it still looked like we were in the range.  It seems like we are in the process of breaking out but we still need to retest the old resistance and make sure it is new support.  Whether we need to run higher […]

February 1st Biotech Update

Yesterday was an interesting day.  I took a step back and looked at the chart and while you might think I am crazy, if you squint in the right way it looks like we have already broken out.  Maybe.  If we use $87 as the top of the range, then we broke above it on […]

January 30th Biotech Update

I feel like a broken record as we start yet another week with the potential to break out to the upside but not the best start in that attempt.  There is not a lot to cover today, so it will be quick but we do have earnings that could be an excuse for the move […]

January 27th Biotech Update

The sector is teasing us.  I thought this week had the potential to see a breakout and we are right at the levels.  It would be nice to see a clear move above resistance and then a back test in the next week or two to confirm.  We have earnings upcoming and that will either […]

January 25th Biotech Update

Are we setting up for that breakout?  Just like last week we are in the position to do so but remember last week we ended up failing.  While I am not sure there is any fundamental reason for us to breakout as there is not a ton of new, I do get the sense that […]

January 22nd Biotech Update

We might have another week where we can break out.  Last week we certainly had a chance but fell short.  The rally to end the week, however, put us in range to make another attempt.  We have been spending a lot of time at the top of the range recently and I tend to think […]

January 20th Biotech Update

We had our chance but the trend has remained our friend and we remain stuck in the range.  It was not unexpected but still a little disappointing as it would have been nice to get that breakout.  I do not think it makes a breakdown more likely but the grind in the range continues and […]