I would like to say something really interesting is happening in the sector or there is some great opportunity but the fundamental news is sort of like the sector- flat. It seems to me there is a dual whammy hitting the sector that is acting as some headwinds that are holding it back. First, MRNA […]
June 2 Biotech Update
The market held up well yesterday and so far this morning. Perhaps I am alone in finding this an odd strength given all the issues and it leads to the question of who is buying the market at these level and fundamental context? Long term value investors? Unlikely as we know Buffet is not buying. […]
June 1st Biotech Update
With all that is going on in the country this weekend it seems odd that we are basically opening up flat. Riots. COVID. China tensions. Any of those you would think would be enough to weaken the market and yet the market open relatively resilient. Of course, it remains early and we could easily weaken […]
May 29th Biotech Update
We got a lot of ASCO data to sort through as well as stock reactions. It is going to take awhile just to look through all the data and probably weeks for the sector to digest all the news. I doubt we will see the data move the sector out of its range but sometimes […]
May 27th Biotech Update
The sector sells off as later in the morning yesterday and on the open today. This remains consistent with my contention that we could be in for a range bound market. It is going to take a couple more round trips between the highs and lows of the range to really convince me (and likely […]
May 26th Biotech Update
The week is off to an optimistic start and it is not clear to me the exact reason. Perhaps it is more optimism about vaccines or a belief (hope) that the re-opening will not lead to a new spike in cases. We do know that there seems to have been a massive increase in retail […]
May 22nd Biotech Update
The ups and downs continue as we remain in what could be the developing range. I could be wrong but I think a range bound market would be the most frustrating and money losing market for the largest number of people and hence is the likely outcome. Money might just rotate between sectors moving them […]
May 21st Biotech (and MLP) Update
The past two weeks or so has seen some large moves on a daily basis and yet there has basically been very little movement in the sector (or market writ large). There seems to be a continued bull versus bear debate ongoing in the market and the basic outlines (if you have seen these articles) […]
May 19th Biotech Update
What kills bulls runs in the sector? News can but the floodgate of secondaries opening is also a sure why these end. Yesterday saw the opening of the secondary window and while the first wave of secondaries does not always kill bull runs, it seems like we are at the beginning of the end. We […]
May 15th Biotech Update
I figured the sector was hoping for a merger Monday to really continue the push from Friday. Instead we got a Moderna Monday that is pushing not just the sector but the market. There is really not much more news that I can tell but the ultimately it looks like the old resistance level on […]
May 15th Biotech Update
It seems a fight/indecision in the sector right now. It remains right at the breakout level unable to move higher to confirm the breakout or move lower to reinforce the level as resistance. It still seems to be doing modestly better than the broader markets but there seems clear indecision at this level and at […]
May 14th Biotech Update
So we are in the pullback to the breakout levels and the sector has some decision making to do. Either this level holds and we confirm the breakout or we make our way lower and the “breakout” looks like a blow off top. A breakdown would not be a great signal (obviously) but this would […]
May 13th Biotech Update
Are we heading to the pullback that confirms the breakout? Perhaps but we could also be in the frustrating the bears phase of the move. Remember that the most common outcome of a market that makes a new all time high is to have another day that makes a marginal new high. In other words, […]
May 12th Biotech Update
We had our breakout and run yesterday and while there is little follow through today, I suspect that we get a continuation. It appears that the breakout is happening but the confirmation still needs to occur. The final signal would be to test the old resistance level with a selloff and to rally off the […]
May 11th Biotech Update
We were able to break above resistance last Friday but could not quite close above it and did not get the run on the breakout. This morning the sector is slightly weak as is the general market. It will be a real test of the sector as there is little news to drive it higher […]
May 8th Biotech Update
We keep smacking our heads against the resistance above and the more times we hit it the better the chance it breaks. The sector news has been positive and the broader market is still grinding higher, so the broader fundamentals appear supportive of a break. The flip side is that if we cannot breakout within […]
May 7th Biotech Update
Earnings continue and the themes are basically the same. They are generally good if not better than expectations but they remain cautious for the rest of the year. The sector is certainly rebounding from the selling late last week but there seems to be this odd late day selling despite strength during most of the […]
May 5th Biotech Update
So it is looking like the late last week selling was a pause that refreshes and the demand for the sector continues. We still likely have a wall of resistance at $100 on the XBI, so it is not stunning that we paused when we reached that level. A sustained move above that level would […]
May the Force Be With Biotech Update
The trend is you friend until it is not anymore. We had a nice strong uptrend that appears to have broken. This obviously does not mean that we are moving to the low but that the next direction is not precisely clear. We needed to digest that recent move as it was almost straight up […]
May 1st Biotech Update
We finally get two days in a row of the same move but unfortunately it is down. This is not completely surprising as it is completely reasonable that the sharp move higher in the market needs to pause and/or retrench a little. Of course, the tension and worry will be whether or not this is […]
