We continue with a back and forth week. I think we have alternated up and down days this entire week. This continues day and clearly we have a week of indecision. This is not necessarily bullish. Yes, it is bullish to basically digest a move higher with sideways action but the news this week has […]
April 29th Biotech Update
Yesterday was a retracement day and seemed almost like a rotation out of what was working (biotech) into lagging sectors (banking). Given the strength in the sector it should be able to handle the retracement before continuing the move higher. The only worry is the XBI compared to the IBB. The IBB had made new […]
April 27th Biotech Update
A new week and it is off to a good start. One debate I often have with myself is whether or not the bottom is in. It is an important question but really unknowable at this point. If HCQ or remdisivr or some other drug comes out as a reasonable treatment for COVID between now […]
April 24th Biotech (and MLP) Update
It seems like the market is slowly getting back to some sort of normalcy. The daily massive moves are slowly becoming more measured moves. Yes, volatility is still elevated and we still get large moves but the days of daily 5%-10% moves higher or lower with even larger swings seems to be slowly moving into […]
April 23 Biotech (and MLP) Update
Good news for investors. Stocks have never been red when weekly jobless claims were over 3 million and with the 4+ million claims this week, we should be fine. Clearly we are in abnormal times but simply looking the at the price action and ignoring the broader economic fundamentals, the market is strong. That seems […]
April 21st Biotech (and MLP) Update
The pattern (losses after hours and gains during the day) held yesterday and we are testing it again today. It is odd and not like some kind of trend we see on a chart, so it is not clear to me what the signs would be that the pattern will end. Plus, I am not […]
April 20th Biotech (and MLP) Update
So it looked like last week finally decided the next move would be higher but this morning we start with some weakness. I would not be surprised, however, to see the market to reverse during the day. I saw an analysis that showed almost all of the downside on the selloff the past couple months […]
April 17th Biotech (and some MLP) Update
It took the whole week but perhaps we are finally get the move out the of range. I say maybe even though we are having a strong move on what could be good fundamental macro news. That being said I would not assume that this is real until we see the close. It would certainly […]
April 16th Biotech Update
It is a week of indecision despite having thought it would be a week of decision. It happens I guess but we are whiplashing higher and lower but, honestly, if I ignored the larger macro context and just looked at the XBI the chart the past couple weeks, it seems clearly in an uptrend. We […]
April 15th Biotech Update
Well, today is a day where we should have turned off the alarmed, rolled over in bed, and went back to sleep. Certainly not a good start after what was a pretty strong Tuesday. Nothing has really changed fundamentally, so it seems investors are trying to figure out where the next move will and pile […]
April 13th Biotech Update
A mixed start to the week, which seems fitting given the technical analysis that Joe published last night. I highly recommend that you read it as it lays out the next move in the market and I agree that we seem to be at a decision point. Perhaps we do not get the decision this […]
April 9th Biotech Update
We live in a macro world for sure. Another strong day as FOMO is coming to the forefront driving the market higher and higher. Is the market mis-pricing risk at this point? Perhaps but looking at the FXI it bottomed pretty early into their epidemic and that is probably a good analogy for the US […]
April 8th Biotech Update
Yesterday was interesting in that we had that reversal from the morning highs but it did not seem to spook the bulls as much as I would have thought. Today we have another move higher in the morning but let us see if this one actually sticks. It seems like we might be at some […]
April 7 Biotech Update
So the crisis is over! Or at least that is the way the markets are behaving. It is pretty clear that we are having a reversal of the COVID sell-offs. The market is moving higher including and perhaps being led by regional banks and all those COVID related names (whether it be treatments, PPE, or […]
April 6th Biotech Update
A good start to the week for sure. While it is a nice move higher, we remains at critical levels that could be resistance. For instance $80 on the XBI will likely be important to break above. It would be something to move above today given that we only reached it on the big spike […]
April 3rd Biotech Update
Guess what? Job market sucks. The market dipped a little on that news which I find a little surprising as nothing about it should have surprised. What was interesting was that the US indicated that its oil producers were willing to cut production as a carrot to get Russia on board. I do not remember […]
April 2nd Biotech Update
So it has been interesting the past couple days in the market. There was a lot of buying to end March but I think most saw that as the 60/40 (stock/bond) funds rebalancing. In other words, the move in the markets with stocks crashing and bonds flying meant that the 60/40 funds needed to sell […]
March 31st Biotech Update
A decent amount to talk about (some good some not so good). Yesterday I talked a little about the potential for the bottom to be in and data from China is actually supportive of that thesis. The PMI both bounced back in March and were better than expected. To be fair, a positive PMI survey […]
March 30th Biotech Update
The market continues higher albeit at a slower pace. Clearly the epidemic is not getting any better so why is the market holding up relative well? First, it could simply be the dead cat bounce from oversold conditions. I suspect that most think that is the likely scenario and that is not necessarily wrong. Second, […]
March 27th Biotech Update
Today is going to be an interesting day. The news has not been good this week but the market has had a nice recovery. I would expect that the news does not get any better this week and Boris Johnson has actually tested positive for COVID. We open lower and it seems setup well for […]
