September 30 Biotech Update

Well, a couple days can make a difference. The sector has been hit by renewed pricing concerns (people suddenly realize that voters in California might vote to lower their drug prices), some negative biotech headlines, and a broader market that suddenly thinks we are having another Lehman moment (probably the 20th Lehman moment since the […]

September 28 Biotech Update

The sector continues to do well but there seems to be a bifurcation occurring where the SMID are outperforming the large caps. Usually when investors come back into a sector they start higher on the capital scale as those are typically cash flow positive, reasonable valuations, and a safer way to increase exposure. This does […]

September 27 Biotech Update

We got some interesting biotech news and I thought there would be only one to talk about but we have three I want to touch on so I will save general market commentary for another day as nothing has changed there. 1. The first news is the interim ZUMA-1 data that was reported by KITE. […]

September 26 Biotech Update

Nothing really to move the sector to start the week, so it looks like we sell off with the rest of the market. This price action does not change my thesis that the sector’s path of least resistance is higher for the rest of the year but given the run we do likely need news […]

September 23 Biotech Update

The sector seems to be quieting down a little and perhaps a little bit of consolidation of the recent move is in the cards. All in all, however, it seems like a productive week for the sector and confirms my base case that the likely path moving forward is higher (with the obvious pullbacks sprinkle […]

September 21 Biotech Update

The sector is certainly heating up and we still seem to be at the point where good news is rewarded and bad news is creating isolated damage. Not only do we have the tailwinds that I have been talking about but last week hedge funds were underweight the sector and continuing to sell. Every day […]

September 20 Biotech Update

A little but more news today and there are actually some interesting implications. Yesterday was actually not great in terms of trading given the weakening towards the end of the day but with more positive news today we should see the rally continue. Again, if it struggles on the back of positive news yesterday and […]

September 19 Biotech Update

Another slow news start to the week. Without anything positive or negative to drive trading, I suspect we generally move with the market with perhaps some modest outperformance. The trend for the sector has been positive and there is nothing since Friday that should change that underlying tailwind. {Note that is what I wrote before […]

September 16 Biotech Update

The rollercoaster ride continues but generally the sector has been an outperformer and even if there are occasional setbacks I expect that to continue. I take it as a positive sign that the Clinton discussion of pricing did not break us to new lows (we are probably far enough away that we can have confidence […]

September 14 Biotech Update

The market seems to reversing from the decline yesterday, although not to the same extent of the selloff. This is odd trading in terms of these large swings on little news but it does appear that the sector continues to outperform the market (perhaps more so in the up days than in the down days). […]

September 13 Biotech Update

I was a little late heading into the office this morning and had not been following the news and so I was a little surprised to see the market down so much. This is oddly schizophrenic on really little news. Down big on Friday on a rate hike tantrum (a little dramatic but understandable). Up […]

September 12 Biotech Update

An interesting start to the week. Stocks are starting off stronger than most expected (including me) with the sector slightly outperforming. We have some news to talk about but not a ton and I do not think either are sector moving. 1. We do have a merger Monday with HZNP buying RPTP. I think it […]

September 9 Biotech Update

Not a good day today (seems like rising rates freak out). I may not have been paying very close attention to the market but this seems like a drop on no meaningful market data or information (market tends to throw periodic fits when they increase the odds of a rate hike). The broader market seems […]

September 7 Biotech Update

It sort of feels like people are still on vacation. No volume. No price action. The sector is holding up in this environment and perhaps grinding higher but I am not reading much into the price action at all given the lack of any conviction. 1. The only real conviction move today is AGIO going […]

September 6 Biotech Update

A modest start to the week for the sector but let us wait to see more of the week as more traders get back from vacation before claiming victory or bemoaning defeat. We got the KPTI data and that is what I will focus on today. 1. OK. Let us start big picture with KPTI. […]

September 2 Biotech Update

While usually the last Friday before the long Labor Day weekend is not meaningful, today might be critical for the sector. We are sitting at support and Clinton released a plan to curtail high drug prices. If we hold support with this news, then it sends a strong signal that the sector is not going […]

August 31 Biotech Update

More of the same in terms of the trading for the sector. We remain hostage of sentiment and low volume. Hopefully the pace of both news and volume will pick up next week after the Labor Day holiday. 1. MDCO sort of blew the APO-A1-Milano data. The interim results are essentially no news and yet […]

August 30 Biotech Update

I asked for some positive news as a test case to see how the sector reacts. We sort of got it last night but I do not think that is the best test case. I suspect we continue to trade heavy with the drug price anchor holding us back as we wait for either more […]

August 29 Biotech Update

Not much to talk about today aside from continued underperformance of the sector. I think it is safe to say that the free fall is likely over (at least the first leg of it) but it does not seem like buyers are willing to step in. Obviously there is not much one can draw from […]

August 26 Biotech Update

There is really nothing new, so this will be relatively short. We had some more follow through from the selling that started with the Clinton comment and are now at some critical support levels. If this is going to be a quick blip, then we need to rally (in a sustained manner) soon but even […]