Not a good day today (seems like rising rates freak out). I may not have been paying very close attention to the market but this seems like a drop on no meaningful market data or information (market tends to throw periodic fits when they increase the odds of a rate hike). The broader market seems […]
September 7 Biotech Update
It sort of feels like people are still on vacation. No volume. No price action. The sector is holding up in this environment and perhaps grinding higher but I am not reading much into the price action at all given the lack of any conviction. 1. The only real conviction move today is AGIO going […]
September 6 Biotech Update
A modest start to the week for the sector but let us wait to see more of the week as more traders get back from vacation before claiming victory or bemoaning defeat. We got the KPTI data and that is what I will focus on today. 1. OK. Let us start big picture with KPTI. […]
September 2 Biotech Update
While usually the last Friday before the long Labor Day weekend is not meaningful, today might be critical for the sector. We are sitting at support and Clinton released a plan to curtail high drug prices. If we hold support with this news, then it sends a strong signal that the sector is not going […]
August 31 Biotech Update
More of the same in terms of the trading for the sector. We remain hostage of sentiment and low volume. Hopefully the pace of both news and volume will pick up next week after the Labor Day holiday. 1. MDCO sort of blew the APO-A1-Milano data. The interim results are essentially no news and yet […]
August 30 Biotech Update
I asked for some positive news as a test case to see how the sector reacts. We sort of got it last night but I do not think that is the best test case. I suspect we continue to trade heavy with the drug price anchor holding us back as we wait for either more […]
August 29 Biotech Update
Not much to talk about today aside from continued underperformance of the sector. I think it is safe to say that the free fall is likely over (at least the first leg of it) but it does not seem like buyers are willing to step in. Obviously there is not much one can draw from […]
August 26 Biotech Update
There is really nothing new, so this will be relatively short. We had some more follow through from the selling that started with the Clinton comment and are now at some critical support levels. If this is going to be a quick blip, then we need to rally (in a sustained manner) soon but even […]
August 25 Biotech Update
It’s déjà vu all over again. The sector was doing well until a certain presidential candidate makes a comment about a company and the bottom falls out. So what does all of this mean? 1. Obviously the talk is MYL and both the Senate letter as well as Clinton’s statement. While I think it is […]
August 24 Biotech Update
Sector is doing well in essentially a flat market, although volumes generally remain low. It is the summer doldrums so the sector is not unique for low volumes. We have some interesting news to talk about and while I am not sure they are moving the sector, they certainly could be contributing. 1. CLVS reported […]
August 23 Biotech Update
Well, as much as I thought my routine would return to normal next week, we learned the schools are not going to open until September 6th at the earliest meaning that my kids will be spending a lot of time at work with their parents. At least we are still in the summer doldrums in […]
August 22 Biotech Update
The sector is doing well on the consummation of the long courtship of MDVN. I will be back with my commentary this week but am still not quite back to the usual routine. The kids still do not have school, so these will be shorter than usual this week but next week when everything is […]
August 18 Biotech Update
I am sorry to not have been writing but it has been busy here in Louisiana with the floods. My house was close to the leading each (about 50 yards) but we luckily stayed dry. With about 70% of the houses around me taking water, I have a lot of friends who were not so […]
August 11 Biotech Update
We now seem to be stuck in a small rut with the near term trend being slightly negative and nothing really to break it. Perhaps value investors step in at support levels or we get unexpected news (M&A or data) that can change the trend but until then it looks like a low volume drift […]
August 10 Biotech Update
The market continues to consolidate and I expect this trend to continue over the near term. If I am correct that this is simply a consolidation in a new bull market for the sector (and it is difficult to make that claim given how bad the sector has been but at this point I am […]
August 9 Biotech Update
We certainly have seen some recent under-performance by the sector but given recent strength and run of bad news (trial failures, secondaries, and so on) this is not stunning. So I do not read anything meaningful into this weakness as long as we maintain a higher low and given the recent price action that would […]
August 8 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be struggling a little but it would not be stunning to see some underperformance and consolidation after the recent run. We continue to get earnings headlines but the vast majority of sector moving calls and earnings are passed. 1. EPZM reported earnings and there is nothing new in it, so it […]
August 5 Biotech Update
I was not going to write today but snuck into office with my kids in tow for a quick note on BMY. 1. This was a major surprise and critically important for BMY. ISI wrote that they believed the first line NSCLC market was $7B-$8B of the $12B 2021 opdivo estimates. That is pure speculation […]
August 4 Biotech Update
Today is actually an interesting day as we have had a lot of small cap reports that offered nothing really new except continued progress that was well known and should have already been incorporated into expectations. For the most part, these stocks are higher, which I think signals that this run continues to have some […]
August 3 Biotech Update
It is more of the same but we had a nice late day rumor yesterday that triggered a reversal higher. Outside of that rumor not much in the way of news. While these rumors tend to be a nice source of intraday moves, these are generally not sustainable as even if they are true, the […]
