We are finally starting to see the snap back rally and the question at this point is going to be the sustainability. Ideally we would like to see increasing volume and closing near the highs and at this point my base case is that this has some legs over the near term. What I find […]
October 2 Biotech Update
Surprise, surprise but the markets a not great (again). While we are not seeing the selling (yet), there is still not a lot of buying going on. We did get that additional move down I was expecting but I still have the sense that the path of least resistance is lower but we are probably […]
October 1 Biotech Update
The market is weak again and that is starting to sound like a broken record. At this point, it seems like we should be closer to the end of this correction than the beginning as the internal indicators that I have seen are indicating oversold conditions and we are at good levels of support. That […]
September 29 Biotech Update
A crappy start to the weak but perhaps we will get a wash out followed by a rally. Despite the selling, the sector is doing OK but clearly everything is being hit. There was a good amount of news this morning and I want to focus on two of them and follow up with additional […]
September 26 Biotech Update
Well, we have some more news today but still not a ton. I wanted to get out a quick and early note because I will be busy the rest of the day. The market seems to have no memory from day and day and is really trying to find a direction. I still lean towards […]
September 25 Biotech Update
It was a quiet news day on the biotech front and the market was quite weak early. Going into that environment I would expect a continued selling of biotechs but they seemed to hold up rather well. Perhaps I am focusing too much on the strength in GILD but even without that performance, biotechs seemed […]
September 24 Biotech Update
After a fairly weak start to the week, the sector seemed a little stronger this morning but the markets are teetering on a much larger correction. At this point, however, the markets may be oversold enough to get a near term bounce. The key is whether that bounce will be significant enough to push the […]
September 22 Biotech Update
The sector really seems bifurcated at this point. While the large caps have been pretty reliable winners the past couple of months, it seems like they are taking a break. Obviously, they are still close to their highs but more often than not they appear to struggle to gain and when they do the gains […]
September 18 Biotech Update
Seems like a mixed day for the sector with the broader markets offering a nice background for gains but the biotech sector is not really rallying as you would expect. It is still early and I am not sure there is too much to read into this but one would prefer to see a more […]
September 17 Biotech Update
The sector rallied yesterday and seems to be trying to continue the move this morning. I think we are in no man’s land at this point as a lot of stocks are getting close to lines of resistance (for instance, GILD and CELG are both approaching the 20 day SMA). Will we pause and breakout […]
September 15 Biotech Update
We have a very weak start to the week as biotech buyers appear to have stepped aside. At this point, I think it is safe to say that we are in the midst of a correction and now the question is a matter of degree. We should be approaching an area of support, so it […]
September 12 Biotech Update
Another day and another bit of weakness in the sector and market. The longer that we churn along at these levels the more it looks like stocks are resting for a continuation of the main trend (higher). It is not a high conviction view but unless the market breaks to the downside soon, it looks […]
September 11 Biotech Update
The market was pretty benign but biotechs seemed to really be taking it on the chin early. There does not seem to be a strong fundamental reason for the weakness as far as I can tell (unless you think the CELG selling is creating a larger pin action), so it looks more like profit taking […]
September 10 Biotech Update
Market seems a little heavy as does the sector. This is not to say that we cannot rally further from here but my base case is that the next move is likely to be a consolidation. While it is possible that this occurs through time, I expect it is more likely to occur through price. […]
September 8 Biotech Update
A slow start to a week, which I guess should have been expected given that last week was not exceptionally news filled. Without any real catalysts, it is likely the sector will track the broader market. The one advantage is that we have a series of investor conferences in September. While these usually do not […]
September 5 Biotech Update
It was an interesting day in the markets with NFP coming in under expectations. Rumors of a new ceasefire in the Ukraine and flash crashes in mega-cap companies. What is sort of interesting is that despite all of these events the market itself is basically flat, although I doubt it will stay flat and expect […]
September 4 Biotech Update
Markets are generally moving higher again this morning likely on the back of quantitative easing making its entrance into Europe. I expect a slightly stronger reaction to this news but it is still early, so I would not be surprised if the market strengthened throughout the day. Debates over the utility of QE aside, they […]
September 3 Biotech Update
So the market continues to make marginal highs and essentially is drifting higher as the path of least resistance remains slightly higher each day. At his point, however, we cannot discount the possibility of a correction as a lot of stocks have had good runs. Trying to time when these corrections occur is losing game […]
Quick Update
I have been out of the office all day and so have not had a chance to write anything. I wanted to write a brief note on the TTPH data given that I have been following it. I will have a lot more tomorrow on this and other stocks. Tetraphase released data from the lead […]
August 29 Biotech Update
It has been a little bit of a crazy week for me but thankfully there was not a ton of news as we head into the long holiday weekend. The sector seemed to be consolidating (or looking for a direction) and this also seems to be the case for the broader market. This is not […]
