It was certainly a much better day in the market but after the selling days like today are more breathers than anything else. It all comes down to how the market performs the next week or so and not the day after a large down day. In some ways I am encouraged that the gap […]
Catalyst Watch – Vol. 2, Edition 3 (2/3/14)
Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date published (or are noted), are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision and are not intended as investment recommendations. Please read our Disclaimer: (1) Catalyst Watch List – Update: CYTK: […]
February 3 Biotech Update- The Bloodbath Edition
It was another rough day in the market with a familiar pattern- market weak, large cap biotechs outperforming the broader market and small cap biotechs underperforming. It makes sense in that risk off means selling biotechs but large cap biotechs have a valuation buffer in their growing free cash flow. This is not to say […]
January 31 Biotech Update- The Hep-C Competition Heats Up
The market was just a little weak this morning and biotechs responded as one would expect, although despite the sea of red I kept thinking that it could be have been worse. Today was certainly not a good day but the market is starting to provide us some good bargains. There could be a larger […]
January 30 Biotech Update- CELG and ONTX on the Move
Today was clearly a nice bounce back day and it remains to be seen whether this is a relief rally or the continuation of the larger trend. I have been talking about the large cap earning reports as being important indicators and you are generally seeing them being non-events in terms of price movements. Most […]
Prospects for Prana's PBT2
On the wildly speculative front, Prana Biotechnology (PRAN) is a developer of metal protein attenuating compounds(MPAC) for neurodegenerative disorders. Shares are up over 350% in the past year as the company has neared readouts from 2 Phase 2 studies of their lead product, PBT2. The first is a small, 12-month study in 40 patients with […]
January 29- Biotech Update
Would you believe another snow day in Louisiana, which is number three in the past couple of weeks (if you were counting). In general, despite a very weak market , biotechs did fairly well, although it was the large caps holding up the sector with the small caps more mixed. It was nice to see […]
Week’s Option Activity (1/13 ~ 1/28)
The following stocks had notable activity in their options during the past week(s): $XOMA (1/13): 2,550 JUN risk reversals were purchased (stock at $8.32) for 0.40 or $102,000. 2,550 JUN 15.0 strike Calls were purchased for 0.88 and 2,550 JUN 5.0 strike Puts were sold against for 0.48. Buyer expects substantial upside movement and makes […]
January 28- Biotech Update
Well, we are having a snow/winter storm day in Baton Rouge, so the kids have no school and I need to work around them as best I can (so I apologize for the poor editing). I will try to keep this short and to the point and get it out earlier than usual as I […]
January 27 Biotech Update
It is amazing how quickly sentiment can change. Last week I was noting the shifts and the expectations for a correction. This was certainly needed but I think the speed of the move has less to do with fundamentals and more to do with jittery investors. Nobody wants to be the last one to sell, […]
Catalyst Watch – Vol. 2, Edition 2 (1/24/14)
Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date published (or are noted), are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision and are not intended as investment recommendations. Please read our Disclaimer: (1) Catalyst Watch List – Update: CHTP: […]
Upcoming Phase 3 trials
With a fresh start to 2014 and the biotech market still very strong, we wanted to examine some upcoming Phase 3 results that will be in focus in the first quarter. Expectations for some of these trials varies widely. We have a blend of small biotech to big pharma. Company: Merck (MRK) and Amgen (AMGN) […]
January 23rd Biotech Update
The macro backdrop today was not great but the sector did better than I would have expected going into the day. That being said there is likely a correction coming so buying this dip might not be the best strategy. I am still mainly sitting on the sidelines on stocks I am watching waiting for […]
January 22nd Biotech Update
I feel like a record stuck skipping over the same part but there has not really been anything new in the market this week either from a macro sense or even at the individual level. The sector was strong in the morning basically on the backs of the large caps (see GILD later in the […]
GERN- A Speculative Trade
To be clear, I’m not a big fan of Geron. However, upcoming events provide an interesting, although somewhat risky trading opportunity. The telomerase inhibitor imetelstat has demonstrated activity in the myeloproliferative disorders essential thrombosis and myelofibrosis. Geron is now planning a company sponsored P2 in MF set to begin around June; data may become available […]
IBB – In The Decision Zone
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) -Nasdaq The best indicator for our biotech portfolios are biotechnology indices such as IBB, NBI, XBI or XLV. By looking at the IBB daily chart, we get the whole picture of the latest epic run in the biotech sector during 2013, with a whopping run from 134.21 to 227.06 points, gaining 69.2%, while […]
January 21st Biotech Update on GILD ECYT ONTX
The sector is looking a little tired at these levels but it seems like everyone is expecting a pullback, which makes the contrarian in me wonder if there is another leg higher. I am certainly not selling anything at this point but would be cautious about buying now. I would not be surprised to see catalyst stocks […]
January 17 Biotech Update- Building a Diagnostic Foundation
Today was more of the same in the sector and that is generally positive given the sentiment. I know it seems like biotech has been going up every day (we have certainly had a good run recently) but it seems to me like this is the only sector that is not warning on earnings as […]
January 16 Biotech Update- Back from the Circus
I am back from JPM and it was a busy couple of days. I need organize my thoughts and today was not a great day given that it is start of the semester. So I will keep this short and sweet with some broad comments and thoughts. Obviously the sector is doing well, which is […]
Catalyst Watch – Vol. 2, Edition 1 (1/14/14)
Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date published (or are noted), are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision and are not intended as investment recommendations. Please read our Disclaimer: (1) Catalyst Watch List – Update: KERX: […]
