Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date of publishing (or are noted) and are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision: Catalyst Watch List – Update: VNDA: The stock has sold off substantially, from $13 to $7, […]
October 30- EOD
The sector seems almost perilously balanced between putting in a solid base for the next leg higher and setting up for another leg lower. The freefall that we have seen in recent weeks has slowed but volumes remain pathetic (especially in the small cap space), which means buyers are not quite interested. Of course, when […]
October 29- EOD
Well, it seemed like an odd day for the sector in that it was almost directionless. This is not to say that there were not moves among individual stocks but we are finally starting to see them move on merit and less on sector sentiment. I think this is a good sign and hopefully we […]
Ariad- Where Do They Go From Here
Following the FDA’s clinical hold, then discontinuation of the Phase III trial in front line CML for Ariad’s only marketed drug, Iclusig, the most pressing issue comes down to are finances. Ariad is a big spender, burning through $69 million in the second quarter of this year with $83 million in operating expenses. It will […]
October 28- Mid day
I have not followed the biotech market very close the end of last week but it seems like more of the same. There is a number of issues that I could touch on today but I have been getting the most questions about ONTX, so I will focus on it today. I am also publishing […]
Datasets in focus at IASLC this weekend
This weekend is the 15th annual World Conference on Lung Cancer, sponsored by tge International Assoc. for The Study Of Lung Cancer (IASLC). It takes place Sunday October 27th through Wednesday 30th (Site). Abstracts can be found here. In particular, we want to speak briefly about 7 presentations. PD1 inhibitors Bristol-Myers (BMY), Merck (MRK) and Roche (RHHBY) […]
Merck – Quick Chart Review
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) -NYSE For the first time since March 1st, MRK’s price dropped below its 200-Day Moving Average. This is worth a deeper look at the price action and the indicators are showing a “Bullish Divergence” and within the oversold zone. Merck will take part at the (IASLC) the 15th World Conference on […]
Biocryst up on hope(hype) for HAE prophylaxis
In a previous post, Jason Chew provided some background and analysis on Biocryst (BCRX) BCX4161, an oral drug candidate for the treatment of hereditary angioedema (HAE). Biocryst’s stock is up 300%+ since July of this year on the back’s of Phase 1 trial of BCX4161 in healthy volunteers. With that said, we do question some […]
October 24-EOD
I want to be cautiously optimistic on the recent performance of biotechs. Yesterday ending up being a decent day and today started off okay. The sector is not burning it up with outperformance but seems to taking a pause in the selling. I have been warning that this is a busy week and it continues […]
MDVN – Confusion over PREVAIL data explained in a single graph
On Tuesday, the market was rather confused on what to make of the PREVAIL news. To be clear, this wasn’t entirely the market’s fault: Medivation released a poorly worded press release that did not convey the whole story. A little extra detail would have gone a long way. From the press release, we know that […]
October 23-EOD
Not a lot of news in terms of data, although we saw BMY, AMGN, and LLY report earnings. The biotech sector was not as much of a relative underperformer today. Of course, it was still red and weak but today it was red and weak in the context of a broader market selloff. Volumes seemed […]
Catalyst Watch – Vol. 1, Edition 5 (10/22/13)
Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date of publishing (or are noted) and are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision: (1) Catalyst Watch List – Updates: VNDA: No change in strategy (See Vol. 1, Edition 2). […]
October 22-EOD
This is going to be another early and quick note as I have another afternoon of meetings. Biotechs, in general, continue to underperform and I suspect there is still more downside but some individual stocks are getting interesting. It looks like small and mid caps are most challenged. Once the large cap space finds a […]
October 18-EOD
It is a little early but the week seems to be winding down (as with most biotechs going down), so I am sending this out a little sooner than usual. Got some continuation news from the two bigger news story of the past week. There were some other events but did not generate nearly the […]
October 17- EOD
A mixed day in the market which was nice to see a day in which not all stocks were moving in the same direction. Obviously had some stock specific news with AMRN and the PSDV PDUFA and some more general biotech news. 1. AMRN was the stock of the day with about a 67% haircut […]
Week’s Option Activity (10/10~10/16)
The following stocks had notable activity in their options during the past week(s): $XOMA (10/10): 3,000 OCT 5.0 strike Calls were bought (stock at $4.69) for 0.50 or $150,000. This appears to be an opening trade (thus highly speculative given proximity to expiration). Buyer makes money if stock trades above $5.50 by expiration. $PATH (10/10): […]
October 16- EOD
With the approach of an end (as temporary as it is likely to be) of the stalemate in Washington you thought we would be approaching the end of the macro driven market. While I think that is likely true, we still are going to have a knee jerk relief rally before it settles back down […]
October 15- EOD
While this may surprise you (not) but it was another macro driven day (I know you are probably getting as tired of reading that as I am of writing it). Volume also seems to be drying up as investor simply sit on their hands and wait for Washington to get off of their hands. Despite […]
PSDV ALIM – Analysis of Iluvien for DME
On Thursday, Alimera (ALIM) and Psivida (PSDV) are expected to hear from the FDA on the status of their new drug application(NDA) for Iluvien(fluocinolone acetonide intravitreal implant) to treat chronic diabetic macular edema. With it’s third attempt, one could say Iluvien has taken the long and winding road to approval. The PDUFA date is October […]
October 14- EOD
It was another macro day and will be until the mess in Washington is cleared (to a certain extent) but even when that happens will we likely still be in a macro world but with a tail wind instead of a head wind. That being said, the sector seemed to ne relatively heavy today even […]
