Well, I think it was more of the same in the sector writ large with the biggest news obviously being SRPT, which I will touch on below. I was surprised to see the small caps hold up as well as they did on the news and that is a slight positive for the sector going […]
Catalyst Watch – Vol. 1, Edition 7 (11/12/13)
Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date of publishing (or are noted) and are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision: Catalyst Watch List – Update: VNDA: The stock is up 80% on better than expected briefing […]
ONTX – Looking For The Reversal Pattern
Onconova Therapeutics, Inc. (ONTX) -Nasdaq Onconova has recently plunged about $19 from the 52-week high at $31.13, reached just a month ago to the current level in mid-$13s and reaching the low of $12.03 today. Surprising given the Phase 3 readout coming up and final results from the Phase-II trial of oral rigosertib in 1st-line Low-Risk […]
November 11- EOD
I am gone for a little while and the market goes crazy, bounces, and then we have today which has both sell offs and rallies. To be honest, it is difficult to get a good read on the sector sentiment writ large at this point and at those times it seems the best bet is […]
Quick take on Geron’s Imetelstat abstract
Today we finally got a glimpse at the ongoing investigator sponsored study of Geron (GERN) imetelstat in myelofibrosis. We have previously discussed this program here. The abstract can be found here. An oral presentation is scheduled for Monday, December 9th at 4:45 PM. The study was carried out by Dr. Tefferi at the Mayo Clinic. […]
TSRO – A look at Tesaro
Following additional information released at ASCO 2013 and their recent quarterly updated, we wanted to take a moment to talk about Tesaro (TSRO). Since their IPO, Tesaro’s stock is up roughly 186% at a fully diluted marketcap of $1.22 billion (@ $35 per share) based on roughly 35 million shares outstanding. Tesaro’s pipeline consists of […]
Horizon Pharma continues cash burn and dilution
We last wrote on Horizon Pharma (NASDAQ: HZNP) following their FDA approval of RAYOS, but seems not much has changed. However, the stock has risen roughly 60% year to date with no apparent change in fundamentals. We view this company as overvalued given their products exorbitant price, no data to support superiority claims over cheap […]
ASH 2013 Preview on ALL/CML/MDS/AML
This year’s annual meeting of the American Society of Hematology (ASH13) is highly anticipated for a number of reasons. The first series in our preview covered what to expect in multiple myeloma. Today’s preview will focus on some of the moves going in acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), acute myeloid leukemia (AML), chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), […]
ASH 2013 Preview on Myelofibrosis
This year’s annual meeting of the American Society of Hematology (ASH13) is highly anticipated for a number of reasons. With the general market for the healthcare/biotech sector at all-time highs on the backs of Pharmacyclic’s Ibrutinib (stock is up 1000% since ASH11), Celgene’s Revlimid (~67% of their $6.3B 2013 revenue) and Amgen’s $10.6B deal for […]
Week’s Option Activity (10/31~11/4)
The following stocks had notable activity in their options during the past week(s): $VNDA (10/31): Lots of activity – we will stick to the bigger trades. 1,000 NOV 4.0 strike Puts were sold (stock at $6.74) to buy 1,000 NOV 11.0 strike Calls for a net debit of 0.65 or $65,000 – buyer makes money […]
ASH 2013 Preview on Lymphoid Malignancies
This year’s annual meeting of the American Society of Hematology(ASH13) is highly anticipated for a number of reasons. Pharmacyclic’s Ibrutinib could be viewed as one of the several catalysts sparking the biotech sector’s run the past 2 years. They are now within months of receiving approval for 2 indications where they could benefit patient lives […]
November 5- EOD
The morning looked bad but the sector came back a little. There was some sporadic buying of oncology names but nothing major. It will be very interesting to see how the sector responds to the ASH abstracts. Obviously there will be winners and losers but the question in my mind is how will the PPS […]
ASH 2013 Preview on rare blood disorders
This year’s annual meeting of the American Society of Hematology (ASH13) is highly anticipated for a number of reasons. Orphan diseases has been a key element in the bull market in biotech over the past 2-3 years. Consider that the market for hemophilia A treatments in 2011 was over $5 billion alone. Today’s preview will […]
November 4- EOD
(This was from yesterday. Due to the server issues, I am not sure many of you saw it, so I am reposting.) I take one day to not write an EOD and biotechs sell off. Well, they have been weak for awhile so no real surprise but at least the selling does not seemed related […]
ASH 2013 Preview on Multiple Myeloma
This year’s annual meeting of the American Society of Hematology (ASH13) is highly anticipated for a number of reasons. With the general market for the healthcare/biotech sector at all-time highs on the backs of Pharmacyclic’s Ibrutinib (stock is up 1000% since ASH11), Celgene’s Revlimid (~67% of their $6.3B 2013 revenue) and Amgen’s $10.6B deal for […]
CLDX – A look at CDX-1127
Celldex Therapeutics (CLDX) has one of the most anticipated data releases amongst small biotech companies this fall. They are scheduled to present data from their Phase 1 dose-escalation trial of a CDX-1127 (CD27, a T-cell stimulator) at the annual meeting of the Society for ImmunoTherapy of Cancer(SITC), November 7-10th. We will also likely see some […]
October 31- EOD
ARIA is doing its best to single handedly crush biotech sentiment and grind it into a bloody pulp. As I have said before, if this is the bursting of a real speculative bubble then we have another five to ten years of selling (I think it took tulip prices over a century to recover and […]
Catalyst Watch – Vol. 1, Edition 6 (10/30/13)
Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date of publishing (or are noted) and are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision: Catalyst Watch List – Update: VNDA: The stock has sold off substantially, from $13 to $7, […]
October 30- EOD
The sector seems almost perilously balanced between putting in a solid base for the next leg higher and setting up for another leg lower. The freefall that we have seen in recent weeks has slowed but volumes remain pathetic (especially in the small cap space), which means buyers are not quite interested. Of course, when […]
October 29- EOD
Well, it seemed like an odd day for the sector in that it was almost directionless. This is not to say that there were not moves among individual stocks but we are finally starting to see them move on merit and less on sector sentiment. I think this is a good sign and hopefully we […]
