The XBI – A Short Term Outlook

Many are asking if the XBI is done with the bounce and will drop back to test the 52-week low around $61, or it is still in a consolidation mode and will continue the recovery and move upward again! Here is my outlook for the biotech sector these days. The XBI used as a leading […]

August 1st Biotech Update

  We have some more earnings this week but the lack of exciting launches to track make them a little less exciting.  Of course, there could be some unexpected misses (see below) but I generally expect earnings to be more or less in than with expectations.  The sector has been essentially rangebound the entire month […]

July 29th Biotech Update

I have had family in town that has changed my schedule and so it has been slow on the updates this week.  There is growing optimism in the sector and I suspect that we could outperform the rest of the year.  Maybe I am crazy but as long as the fundamentals do not crash in […]

July 21st Biotech Update

A slow week but a good week for the sector.  We are entering earnings and that might provide a little boost or drag but it has been awhile since an earnings season really seemed to impact the sector.  They can affect individual stocks but the quarters where you have broad read throughs seem to have […]

July 14th Biotech Update

The sector seems to be doing ok as we inch closer to earnings season.  It will be interesting to see how the sector moves on earnings as there is nothing that should really surprise anyone.  There are still some issues outside the companies that could impact trading.  There is some drug pricing reforms being discussed […]

July 12th Biotech Update

No real news to start the week the juice the sector and so far we have simply followed the broader market lower.  This could/should be the pullback that refreshes as we have had a nice run higher and a pullback to the $78 level makes sense.  Of course that needs to hold and we need […]

July 8th Biotech Update

I am not sure if we end up green today or not but I think we are finally in a decent position for the sector.  There is a virtuous position where a sector has outperformed but investor are underweighted it and so they are underperforming the market.  They need to get into the sector to […]

July 7th Biotech Update

Are we going to get the deal?  It looks like it and it looks like the sector is responding well.  To be fair the sector was already doing well before the report, so this looks like a continuation of that move.  I think it is relatively safe to say that the sector finally has created […]

July 5th Biotech Update

Not the ideal return from vacation for me or the end of a holiday extended weekend for everyone else.  It would have been really nice to have started this week with a buyout but there really is not a ton of news to start the week.  Ideally we can reverse this early weakness and build […]

June 21st Biotech Update

Are we finally getting some love in the sector?  The market and sector were very oversold and we were due for a bounce in both.  We seem to be getting some nice momentum in both (and I would add cryptocurrency which adds to my belief that it really might be a proxy now for risk […]

June 15th Biotech Update

So it is a good start to the morning and yesterday was OK in that we did not crash more. I would not really pay any attention to the morning moves as the more important trading action will be after the Fed announcement.  Obviously expectations are for a rate hike and speculation is that it […]

June 14th Biotech Update

The market is a mess.  We had treasuries invert on Friday, which is a favorite signal of an impending recession.  To be fair the treasury inversion over predicts recessions and so there have been many instances where nothing happened after an inversion.  All that being said rising rates and high inflation is probably bound to […]

June 8th Biotech Update

I guess I brought some good vibes back from my vacation.  I still would say that we are not ever close to saying that an uptrend is in play but these strong days are the necessary condition to start that trend.  We are at a level where additional upside gets us starting to think more […]

June 7th Biotech Update

I am back from my little vacation and have some catching up to do.  The sector seems to be looking for direction as it bounced around from my perspective.  I did not follow its movements closely but from the distance of the beach it looks as if the sector has not made a decision to […]

May 27th Biotech Update

This week has been a little disappointing.  Not in the typical we crashed to new lows disappointing but the general market has done well but the sector has lagged.  As disappointing as the week has been, we are still sort of setup to make a higher low and potentially a higher high.  So I understand […]

May 25th Biotech Update

It looked as though the sector tried to reverse a couple of times but it ended up being a red day.  It would have been nice to get a good red to green reversal with follow through today but at least we are starting green today.  It is important to have a good day today […]

May 24th Biotech Update

It was a good start to the week but the yo-yo continues.  I think if the broader market was not weak that the sector would be forming an uptrend.  For the first time in a long time it feels like the sector wants to outperform the broader market.  Our issue is that the broader market […]

May 20th Biotech Update

This will just be a quick note as I have to go to an event at my kid’s school.  We had a nice day yesterday and hopefully we can build on that and get some real momentum.  Ideally we want to set that higher low and then make that higher high.  It has been awhile […]

May 19th Biotech Update

A little pullback to consolidate is fine.  The absolutely semi-crash the other day is something else.  The market is clearly on edge and the sector is included.  The nice thing is that we did not breakdown to new lows and so if we can somehow recover then perhaps we establish a higher low.  I would […]

May 18th Biotech Update

The sector had been strong and that is nice to see.  It was especially interesting to see the sector strength (and market for that matter) when the Fed is talking.   Usually those are guaranteed red days.  Perhaps the sector is becoming a little more immunized against Fed talk.  Of course, just when you think the […]