April 20th Biotech Update

This week has been pretty tame in the sense that we have not really built on the move higher but have not broken below that $80 level that I think is key to hold.  I think we are all a little impatient with the sector given its recent performance but grinding right above the $80 […]

April 18th Biotech Update

Would you believe it if I said another day and another buyout with a large premium?  I think the lack of M&A had been blamed for some of the previous years of underperforming for the sector and I believe that was a fair point.  That is certainly not the case this year.  While the sector […]

April 17th Biotech Update

Last week I wanted to see a nice move above the $80 level on the XBI as a way to perhaps setup a little bull run.  It failed but today is certainly different.  The move today was sort of what I was looking for last week and we need to stay above the $80 level.  […]

April 14th Biotech Update

A sleepy week sort of flipped in one day with both drama and action.  We have pushed right up to the $80 level in the XBI which could act as some resistance but it will be interesting to see if the strength of yesterday can push through.  From the bullish perspective, the ideal scenario would […]

April 12th Biotech Update

Well, it does look like we are still in this mini range.  The market could be in rally mode today with the CPI coming in cooler than expected.  While I am not convinced that the CPI looks that much cooler than expected (0.1% MoM versus 0.2% expectations), it seems to be enough for some significant […]

April 10th Biotech Update

Treading water?  While it might not seem like it, the sector could be bouncing around support levels and perhaps even setting up a new range between $75 and $78.  If that looks like a pretty tight range to you, I think you are right and the upper end might be closer to $80 and the […]

April 4th Biotech Update

Not a ton of news so far this week and so it seems like the sector is trading on sentiment and technical.  I think we have more or less made a round trip to where we started the week.  I still think there is room to eventually move to the moving averages but it does […]

April 3rd Biotech Update

A nice little continuation and it is nice to see the XBI above $75 but there is a lot of work to do.  To put it in perspective, the 50 day MA is $82.43 and the 200 day MA is $82.22.  On the positive, even after the nice little run the RSI is still under […]

March 31st Biotech Update

Yesterday was a disappointment in many ways.  To see the sector underperform yet again was frustrating.  As frustrating as it was it does not take the move to $78 off the table and it’s good that we are rebounding today.  I still think that a move to the $78 area is most likely in the […]

March 30th Biotech Update

We have so far avoiding the worst case scenario by having a nice little rally this week.  The next big test is going to be whether or not we can get above $78.  That looks like some significant resistance and a place where a lower high can be established that would start to paint a […]

March 29th Biotech Update

I sort of expected a stronger start to the week but perhaps there was more caution than relief buying.  We might now be building some momentum assuming investors become less concerned about a pending banking collapse.  In other words, rather than the early week strong relief rally, we simply needed a couple days of calm […]

March 27th Biotech Update

Last week ended on a good note that has so far continued.  We need a lot more than a couple day bounce to persuade anyone that the tide has changed but it is a start.  We re probably starting a rally to the $78 area on the XBI but that really is likely the next […]

March 23rd Biotech Update

Are we heading to $60 on the XBI or not?  We sort of broke below the last bit of support yesterday that seemed to clear the way for another 20% or so decline.  It could also have been a head fake that then leads to a reversal.  I would not look too positively on the […]

March 22 Biotech Update

I believe today is Fed day and my expectation is that there is a 66% chance of a 25 basis point hike and 33% chance of a pause (and 1% of some other action).  I think regardless of the action the tone will certainly shift more dovish or at least more cautious given the recent […]

March 21st Biotech Update

The markets are holding in there, which is probably not awful at this point.  While most probably expected larger moves, a slow grind at these levels and a steady move higher is probably a healthier sign for the future of the market.  Of course, the banking crisis moves fast and events could once again spiral […]

March 20th Biotech Update

An interesting weekend that leads to a basically flat opening?  I do not know anyone who would have placed bets on a relatively flat opening given that the global banking crisis seems to have accelerated with CS being bought by UBS.  If this was the culmination of the banking crisis, then you would have expected […]

March 17th Biotech Update

Volatility continues as questions around banks both at home and abroad remain.  The actions to support a number of banks has also been met with a lukewarm response.  There were initially a positive reaction but that has seen tapered off as questions remain both on the individual banks, the banking system, the economy, and the […]

March 16th Biotech Update

The banking crisis continues as CS looks to be the latest bank in the crosshairs.  To be fair, there seems to have been questions around CS for years and so it is not necessarily something new but it obviously has become acute.  I think it is difficult to see CS going under as one of […]

March 15th Biotech Update

Not the best start to the day.  It seems like banks are taking a hit (and not just the regionals but even the too big to fail variety) and as long as the market perceives a banking crisis, it will be difficult for the market to rally.  To be fair when you have two of […]

March 14th Biotech Update

Inflation came within expectations (with expectations that it continues to slowly cool although it still remains high).  I think the 50 bps hike is completely off the table at this point and I would lean towards a pause over the 25 bps hike.  I am not as aggressive in thinking that the Fed pauses but […]