There is a recurring theme with excitement to end the week but no merger Monday. I continue to believe we are still too early for there to be a pick-up in M&A but it is coming later in the year. We are starting to get AACR data and it will be interesting to see how […]
SRPT – Final thoughts ahead of the AdCom
Reaching the decision point… Today is the day we have to make decisions in SRPT position. As has been explained several times in the forum and CRG twitter private feed, the date of the panel is 04/25 and the FDA BD comes two days before the preliminary panel (2 business days), it should be […]
April 15 Biotech Update
The generally trading in the sector seems indeterminate. Stocks that underperform one day outperform the next. One day large caps outperform and the next it is small caps. The only thing that seemed consistent is the abysmal volume. I read that as zero confidence in where the next move is going to happen. Perhaps investors […]
Dave-Trading – April Edition
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No positionPreview 2-3 […]
April 14 Biotech Update
Yesterday ended up being modestly better than it started but the sector still remains in a difficult spot. It was certainly positive to see some recovery and movements higher but I also think it would be hard to classify it as an outperformance. There is not a lot of news today, so I expect sentiment […]
April 13 Biotech Update
It has been a strange sort of trading. The sector did well last week but has been underperforming for a couple days now. Ideally this is simply back testing the move from the AGN/PFE breakup but we clearly need to turn it around soon. We seem to be stuck in the sell every rally environment […]
April 11 Biotech Update
I do not think the week is starting with the news everybody wants, i.e. buyouts, but I do think we are getting closer to that point. The sector has been searching for direction at the end of last week but it had a nice run after the AGN/PFE break, so a pause is not unexpected. […]
April 8 Biotech Update
While the sector did not do great on an absolute basis yesterday, it clearly outperformed the broader market. Given the relatively underperformance in the first quarter (the biggest underperformance for the NBI on record), it is not surprising to see it catch up especially with the positive news we have seen. I suspect this patter […]
April 7 Biotech Update
I think we can have more confidence that the bottom is in for the sector, although I am still of the belief that it will be volatile and the sector will still not be the leader of the market going forward. There certainly may be quarters of outperformance but not to the same frequency and […]
April 6 Biotech Update
The news is obviously the failed AGN and PFE deal, so I will focus on why the deal fell through and what it means for the companies and sector. I obviously underestimated both the desire and ability of treasury to kill this deal but it is now about dealing with the news and how to […]
April 4 Biotech Update
It is a pretty quiet start to the week (again) but a little less so than previous weeks. At least we have a GILD deal to think about, although not the one everyone was expecting (hoping for). While I certainly would like to see the sector rocket higher, there is something to be said for […]
April 1 Biotech Update
Yesterday was generally a good day for the sector but it is hard to feel particularly good about it. We certainly need more time to see if this is another rally that leads to additionally dumping of positions. We have been waiting for catalysts that would turn the sector but that is probably a false […]
March 31 Biotech Update
It has been an interesting week. We saw some continued strength yesterday morning only to roll over the rest of the day as sellers returned. The sector may have been saved by the MDVN news (which I will talk about below) but that is yet to be seen. 1. MDVN is the key stock to […]
Catatonic Economics
***”Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions. *** One contribution I make to the CRG team is my background in economics. I have a pervasive interest in macroeconomics and am close to getting my Masters in Economics. I have worked for an economic indicator at the US Census Bureau, and work as […]
March 30 Biotech Update
I am very surprised with the way yesterday turned out. Shrugging off the news to turn positive was impressive even if the sector underperformed the broader market. It seems to support my base case that we are in a bottoming process but also one that will not lead to the sector returning to leadership. We […]
March 28 Biotech Update
We start the week with some biotech news although not the M&A that many expect. I will be interested to see how MDVN trades given its takeover speculation at the end of last week. In any case, we got real news and for the most part it is positive, so the key now is for […]
March 24 Biotech Update
The week has not been ending how it started and this is always the risk with short covering rallies. Without real long term buyers, they are going to be susceptible to large swings. SMID biotechs that were up nicely from the lows are suddenly down 10%+ on a day on no news. While this is […]
March 22 Biotech Update
It looks like the sector did not fall off a cliff and perhaps has been finding some support. We still have the recurring question of whether this is real buying or simply short covering. As has been the case, I fall in the camp that this is short covering at least among the smaller caps. […]
Cup O' Joe – GILD Calls
***Joe Gantoss relies on knowing more, either through technical analysis & charts or DD & research.*** Thesis: GILD has been in a channel between ~87 and ~91. Joe already has Apr. GILD $100 calls. To finish in the money, Joe needs an 11% move upward in 28 days. The time decay on these options […]
March 18 Biotech Update
You are missing a lot of private interaction we are mostly using the private feed @CRGTrades to do so, the best way to be updated is to follow us through this link, please fill in all the info needed for easy confirmation! https://www.chimeraresearchgroup.com/twitter-page/ So the sector did not start another major leg down yesterday […]
