Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date published (or are noted), are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision and are not intended as investment recommendations. Please read our Disclaimer: (1) Catalyst Watch List – Update: CYTK: […]
February 11 Biotech Update- Some Positive Catalysts
It was a good day for the broader markets and a decent day for biotechs, although it seemed a little like a mixed bag with some stocks underperforming the rally. That being said simply following the broader market higher at this point is good for biotechs and likely means that this rally (relief or continuation) […]
Arrowhead Research (ARWR)– Great Technology, But is the Company Over-Promising on ARC-520?
Two billion people globally have been infected with hepatitis B (HBV), and approximately 350 million are chronic carriers, including approximately 750,000 persons in the US. Among the chronically infected, 15% – 40% will develop cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma. Each year approximately 5000 people in the US and 1 million worldwide die from cirrhosis, liver failure […]
February 10 Biotech Update- A Choppy Start to the Week
It was a choppy and mixed morning with the market and sector looking for direction. There were winners and losers across the sector and market caps. After a large up day, it is not necessarily bad for the market to settle down to digest the move. All of that being said, if I had to […]
February 7 Biotech Update- Recovery Edition
Despite the disappointing jobs report, the market held up fairly well and the biotech sector doing well (and seems to be getting relatively stronger as the day goes on). Large caps appeared to be a little stronger than the broader market, although perhaps that would have been more pronounce if it were not for GILD […]
CYTK – Will tirasemtiv BENEFIT ALS patients?
As Cytokinetics confirmed in its Q4 2013 conference call, it will report top-line data from the BENEFIT-ALS study in the second quarter of this year, precisely, at the American Academy of Neurology annual meeting in Philadelphia April 26-May 3. If the company can’t have the whole data ready for that meeting, they’ll present a […]
February 6 Biotech Update- A Mixed Day
It is good day in the market but a bad day for large cap biotechs as most underperformed (large cap pharma was a little different but still not great). Small and mid caps seemed to do better but I would not say that they clearly outperformed the market (but still did better than the large […]
February 5 Biotech Update- How Now Brown Cow?
I said yesterday that I was not convinced that the coast was clear and today shows why. My hunch is that the market is hurting both bulls and bears and the best play is to stay on the sidelines unless a stock comes to you. Forcing a trade or trading out of boredom in the […]
February 4 Biotech Update- A Breather
It was certainly a much better day in the market but after the selling days like today are more breathers than anything else. It all comes down to how the market performs the next week or so and not the day after a large down day. In some ways I am encouraged that the gap […]
Catalyst Watch – Vol. 2, Edition 3 (2/3/14)
Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date published (or are noted), are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision and are not intended as investment recommendations. Please read our Disclaimer: (1) Catalyst Watch List – Update: CYTK: […]
February 3 Biotech Update- The Bloodbath Edition
It was another rough day in the market with a familiar pattern- market weak, large cap biotechs outperforming the broader market and small cap biotechs underperforming. It makes sense in that risk off means selling biotechs but large cap biotechs have a valuation buffer in their growing free cash flow. This is not to say […]
January 31 Biotech Update- The Hep-C Competition Heats Up
The market was just a little weak this morning and biotechs responded as one would expect, although despite the sea of red I kept thinking that it could be have been worse. Today was certainly not a good day but the market is starting to provide us some good bargains. There could be a larger […]
January 30 Biotech Update- CELG and ONTX on the Move
Today was clearly a nice bounce back day and it remains to be seen whether this is a relief rally or the continuation of the larger trend. I have been talking about the large cap earning reports as being important indicators and you are generally seeing them being non-events in terms of price movements. Most […]
Prospects for Prana's PBT2
On the wildly speculative front, Prana Biotechnology (PRAN) is a developer of metal protein attenuating compounds(MPAC) for neurodegenerative disorders. Shares are up over 350% in the past year as the company has neared readouts from 2 Phase 2 studies of their lead product, PBT2. The first is a small, 12-month study in 40 patients with […]
January 29- Biotech Update
Would you believe another snow day in Louisiana, which is number three in the past couple of weeks (if you were counting). In general, despite a very weak market , biotechs did fairly well, although it was the large caps holding up the sector with the small caps more mixed. It was nice to see […]
Week’s Option Activity (1/13 ~ 1/28)
The following stocks had notable activity in their options during the past week(s): $XOMA (1/13): 2,550 JUN risk reversals were purchased (stock at $8.32) for 0.40 or $102,000. 2,550 JUN 15.0 strike Calls were purchased for 0.88 and 2,550 JUN 5.0 strike Puts were sold against for 0.48. Buyer expects substantial upside movement and makes […]
January 28- Biotech Update
Well, we are having a snow/winter storm day in Baton Rouge, so the kids have no school and I need to work around them as best I can (so I apologize for the poor editing). I will try to keep this short and to the point and get it out earlier than usual as I […]
January 27 Biotech Update
It is amazing how quickly sentiment can change. Last week I was noting the shifts and the expectations for a correction. This was certainly needed but I think the speed of the move has less to do with fundamentals and more to do with jittery investors. Nobody wants to be the last one to sell, […]
Catalyst Watch – Vol. 2, Edition 2 (1/24/14)
Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date published (or are noted), are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision and are not intended as investment recommendations. Please read our Disclaimer: (1) Catalyst Watch List – Update: CHTP: […]
Upcoming Phase 3 trials
With a fresh start to 2014 and the biotech market still very strong, we wanted to examine some upcoming Phase 3 results that will be in focus in the first quarter. Expectations for some of these trials varies widely. We have a blend of small biotech to big pharma. Company: Merck (MRK) and Amgen (AMGN) […]
