March 18th Biotech Update

It has been quite the week for the sector.  We have been fooled before but I hesitate to say that this feels different.  There was bad news in terms of the interest rate increase as well as signaling for more.  There has not been really good company news this week and we still have a […]

March 17th Biotech Update

The stalemate in Ukraine likely remains good for the market.  I am not convinced that the stalemate can last for months but it is more likely a week or two hiatus.  As long as it looks like escalation is not happening or at risk of happening then the market looks the other way.  Of course, […]

March 14th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update

Not much has changed in the Ukraine.  This is probably a positive for the market but this stalemate cannot last indefinitely.  If the Ukrainians are successfully hitting the Russian supply lines (as it appears) then the Russian forces will soon (another week or so) have very little supplies left that they will be unable to […]

March 11th Biotech (and Ukraine and Energy) Update

The market and conflict in the Ukraine tough to read right now.  Things have more or less settled into a stalemate in the Ukraine and the market is probably OK with that but this stalemate is not sustainable.  The Ukrainians have been degrading the Russia supplies and this degrades Russian capabilities and increases the chance […]

March 9 Biotech (and Energy) Update

Has the market adjusted to the conflict in the Ukraine?  Commodities are cooling off, VIX is going down and risk assets (and the market) are going higher.  As I noted, I think the market decline has passed if the conflict does not expand or escalate.  The situation has been simmering at the current levels for […]

February 18th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update

We have more of the same today.  The crisis in Ukraine is only escalating as we head into a long weekend and there are no indications that this escalation will decrease.  I have the feeling that as we get closer to the end of trading that investors will think less and less favorably about being […]

February 17th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update

We are getting more of the same this morning with general weakness but some small pockets of outperformance.  I suspect that if the broader market continues to weaken those pockets of strength will be less green and more not red as the general market.  Today seems like the previous days only amplified to a certain […]

February 14th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update

I think the market and sector is in a holding pattern until we see what happens with Russia and the Ukraine.  US intelligence indicates an attack this week (with some details indicating a false flag on Tuesday and attack on Wednesday).  If we can get through this week without an attack then perhaps some of […]

February 10th Biotech Update

The sector had been doing well but the inflation data this morning was worse than expected both year on year and month on month.  This increases rate increase expectations and higher rates has been lowering the sector.  At some point, however, one has to think that rate increases would be priced into the market.  How […]

Feb9th Biotech Update

The sector is doing well this week and hopefully we can keep it up.  Not a lot of sector changing news but there is enough news that if one was looking for a reason to buy there are reasons.  I still think it is less about the fundamentals at this point and more about the […]

February 7th Biotech Update

A good start to the week and we are still in the middle of earnings.  Obviously the sector has been oversold and it is at least due for a dead cat bounce.  It is also possible that last week was the start of the messy bottoming process.  I am not sure even the market knows.  […]

February 4th Biotech Update

So we have not broken down which leaves the messy bottoming process still the potential pattern.  Today will be sort of interesting from a market and sector perspective with the strong jobs report.  The jobs report was unexpectedly strong and I assume that will increase rates and rate hike expectations.  We know that the sector […]

February 2nd Biotech Update

The sector actually put together a couple of good days in a row but today is back to its underperformance. I would not give up on the sector given that it is still early in the day and the general market seems a little supportive of a reversal.  Also even if the sector has changed […]

January 31st Biotech Update

I may have bottomed the sector.  I do not remember what day it was but I talked about the sector possibly needing a sort of crash to bottom and get that seller exhaustion that would mark a bottom. The sector has done OK since then but of course this pattern has happened before.  There as […]