March 25th Biotech Update

I am still trying to get setup at home.  I order a new desktop because I cannot stand writing on a laptop (I know I am a grumpy old man already).  In any case, I will try and get more notes out on this laptop even though it drives me a little crazy typing on […]

March 17 Biotech Update

Do we get our turn around Tuesday?  Timing is about right in terms of the oversold conditions and that they are almost historically oversold.  A true dead cat bounce would be absolutely epic in the short squeeze.  I am not talk a couple of percent or even 5%.  When the bounce happens it should be […]

March 16th Biotech Update

It seems like the market and country is starting to come to terms with the scale of the epidemic and its economic impact but the trend remains until it is broken.  The trend is crash at this point.  I will be putting stink bids in trying to catch flash crashes as I still think those […]

March 12 Biotech Update

Was going to do the chat but it seemed to not work.  Will perhaps try again tomorrow.  I am sure bandwidth right now on the interest is not great as demand has increased.  In any case, my bearish lean has unfortunately been accurate.  All of the negatives for the market remain.  The President had an […]

March 11 Biotech Update

We remain in a macro world but even that remains difficult to trade.  The large intra-day moves puts pressure on trades as it could hit stop-loss levels or convince you that the trade is moving too far away from you.  In addition, the administration is talking about stimulus and help but it cannot help everyone.  […]

March 10th Biotech Update

We open green, which I am not sure is the best to start a counter trend rally.  Keep in mind that with volatility this high, a 3% move is not actually that big or meaningful.  Usually one would see a 3% move in a day as a strong signal but at these levels of volatility, […]

March 9th Biotech Update

We remain in a macro world with the twin barrels of COVID and an oil price war hitting the market.  This is the first time this entire selloff that I sense there is real panic.  That being said I still think we entire a bear market which would be $271 on the SPY but keep […]

March 6th Biotech Update

We remain (obviously) in a macro market and that means correlations remain very high.  Interesting that today the sector seems to be a relative outperformer and seems to be the case this week.  The sector is probably one of the least exposed to the economic impacts (at least at first), so it is not surprising […]

March 4th Biotech Update

Who would have thought that a Joe Biden Super Tuesday victory would cure the corona virus?  The market is rallying on the election as it seems to put Biden back in as the democrat frontrunner.  I suspect that the market would strongly prefer Biden over Sanders as the economy and market actually did pretty well […]

March 3rd Biotech Update

I sure hope that yesterday was not the best that the bulls could do.  We need that bounce to continue for a couple of days and I suspect that will be the case.  There remains a window of opportunity to rally before we start seeing school and work closures in the US, which I believe […]

March 2nd Biotech Update

It seems like this week is setup for a nice counter trend rally.  We might actually get a face ripping rally.  Why?  While the virus continues to spread, a lot of spread is now priced into expectations.  The market is oversold.  We are likely to see continued spread but nothing to put the epidemic to […]

February 28th Biotech Update

We in a macro market.  COVID days up and COVID days down.  I think it is going to be difficult to find stocks that run counter to the macro moves, ie there will be days when the market moves higher and COIVD names lower and vice versa.  I think the only way to avoid that […]

February 26th Biotech Update

First, I apologize for the emails last night. We all received them as well and no one understands why quite yet. We are looking into it right now and hopefully it was a simple one time glitch. We now have had two big down days in a row and is starting to put some fear […]

February 25 Biotech Update

Today will be interesting for the markets. As I noted, the market has trained most to buy the dips and big sell-offs are followed by new highs. The gap up this morning could all but confirm that we are no longer in that type of market. If the gap turns into a gap and go, […]

February 24th Biotech Update

As I have been saying COVID risk will re-enter the market when (if) it expands outside of China and we now have 4 potential non-China epidemics in the works with Japan, South Korea, Italy and Iran. The weekend did not see any of these potential risks decrease and so we open the week lower. Traders […]

February 21st Biotech Update

I am back and the sector has barely changed. I do feel, however, that we are closer to a move lower than before. The market seems to be revising both the scale of the COVID epidemic as well as its economic impact. If that is true then the next move will very likely be lower […]

February 19th Biotech Update

The curious case of the flat market continues. At this point, I would call it a clear trend (with the trend being sideways). I know I have been waiting for the move out of this sideways actions and thought it was imminent but at this point perhaps we treat it like any other trend and […]

February 18th Biotech Update

What an odd market. Fundamentally it should be struggling. It was overbought and PE stretched and we are now starting to see earnings warnings from the corona virus and yet it is likely to continue to move higher. Biotechs had the worst JPM in terms of tepid news flow and a slew of secondaries since […]

February 14th Biotech Update

You remember how I believed that the sector was at a decision point and was unlikely to hang out close to the recent highs without breaking out or breaking down? Yes, I remember too and of course that is exactly what seems to have happened. While I remain surprised this happened, it does not change […]

February 11 Biotech Update

The sector seems to be in decision mode. It is hanging right around the recent highs and it is almost as if the market is trying to make up its mind as to whether or not it wants to bust through the recent highs. I doubt we simply hang at these levels for long. A […]