Just as we thought we were getting cleared of the Fed, they interjected themselves into the market again with perhaps longer rate hikes and perhaps even faster. Whether that comes to pass or not remains to be seen but the market did not quite have the more hawkish tone priced into the valuations. I do […]
January 20th Biotech Update
We had our chance but the trend has remained our friend and we remain stuck in the range. It was not unexpected but still a little disappointing as it would have been nice to get that breakout. I do not think it makes a breakdown more likely but the grind in the range continues and […]
January 10th Biotech Update
A rough start to the week. I suspect it was a combination of a little bit of underwhelming JPM news and worries about the Fed and Macro. Yes, there were deals and data and generally the news out of JPM was good but there was nothing that was ground breaking or thesis changing (in a […]
January 5th Biotech Update
A nice little recovery from a bad start to the year but I must sound like a broken record at this point- we remain in the range and we have to assume that we will until proven otherwise. We seem to be on our way to the upper end of the range and perhaps JPM […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
It is a New Year and two paths diverge in the sector. One would be an unprecedented third year in a row of decline and the second would be the first up year after back to back declines. I am going to use the next couple days to delineate my predictions for 2023. LLY […]
December 29th Biotech Update (Review of my first 5 2022 predictions)
As the year wraps up it might be time to go back through my predictions for 2022 as I get the 10 ready for 2023. It can be a little humbling as one is not always as right as one would have hoped but I will review 5 today and 5 tomorrow. Prediction 1 The […]
November 30th Biotech Update
Are we setting up for the Santa rally? It would be a nice way to end the year and perhaps kick off early next year with a strong JPM. I think we are getting closer to the end of the rate hike cycle and if we think the market is typically 6 months ahead then […]
November 22nd Biotech Update
Not the greatest start to the week but I have a hard time reading too much into this week’s trading. I did notice that large caps outperformed SMID and that has been my theme for a little bit. I still think investors come back into biotech first through large caps and in some ways the […]
November 15th Biotech Update
We had a nice little continuation yesterday and I would not be surprised if we do not run into a pause that refreshes (or at least it would be healthy to do so). There are a couple of different ways to think about the recent move. I would lean towards the focus on the Fed […]
November 14th Biotech Update
We had a nice little rally to end the week and while I would like to say it was related to strong fundamentals, I think it was more macro related. It certainly helped that the sector has generally had a strong earnings season (as compared to something like tech) but I suspect that the market […]
October 27th Biotech Update
A strong start yesterday but it weakened in the afternoon. We are near the top of the range that seems to have developed. It would not be surprising to see that upper end act as resistance. I am not sure there is anything that can happen today that could be definitive. Even if we break […]
September 23rd Biotech Update
It has not been a good week for the market or the sector. We have clearly broken down and interest rate concerns are probably going to at best keep a lid on the upside and at worst continue the downside. I do not think it was a coincidence that the sector seemed to get it […]
August 3rd Biotech Update
We started the week at the bottom of the range and within three days we are at the top of the range. I find days like this a little tough to judge. Big positive moves like this make it feel like there is very strong momentum but when they smack against the top of a […]
July 21st Biotech Update
A slow week but a good week for the sector. We are entering earnings and that might provide a little boost or drag but it has been awhile since an earnings season really seemed to impact the sector. They can affect individual stocks but the quarters where you have broad read throughs seem to have […]
May 3rd Biotech Update
So we had a late day rally yesterday and I am not sure what to think about it. I sort of prefer the weak Monday and gap down Tuesday morning to reverse green sort of setups. It was nice to see the sector rally on what was a group of bad news but with […]
April 8th Biotech Update
While it looked like today was going to be a flat week of consolidation, the last couple of days have been a disappointment and this is more of a pullback sort of week. Pullbacks are not bad per se as long as it stays above support and I think if we stay above $90 and […]
April 6th Biotech Update
We had a good day and then a bad day and hopefully we have another good day. The sector is doing well (or at least better than it has been for a long time). It has been awhile since the sector looked to be setting up an uptrend and while we have been disappointed before, […]
February 10th Biotech Update
The sector had been doing well but the inflation data this morning was worse than expected both year on year and month on month. This increases rate increase expectations and higher rates has been lowering the sector. At some point, however, one has to think that rate increases would be priced into the market. How […]
February 3rd Biotech (and MLP update)
I think we are at the point where it might not be about whether we break out of the downtrend and more at the point of whether or not this is part of a messy bottoming process or setting up a lower low. The broader markets are clearly not helping the sector and if the […]
February 2nd Biotech Update
The sector actually put together a couple of good days in a row but today is back to its underperformance. I would not give up on the sector given that it is still early in the day and the general market seems a little supportive of a reversal. Also even if the sector has changed […]
