The sector actually put together a couple of good days in a row but today is back to its underperformance. I would not give up on the sector given that it is still early in the day and the general market seems a little supportive of a reversal. Also even if the sector has changed […]
January 31st Biotech Update
I may have bottomed the sector. I do not remember what day it was but I talked about the sector possibly needing a sort of crash to bottom and get that seller exhaustion that would mark a bottom. The sector has done OK since then but of course this pattern has happened before. There as […]
January 28th Biotech Update
So it seems like the sector will not be building off of the reversals earlier in the week. We can point to a number of potential factors like the fed and interest rates, the correction in the broader markets, the risk of conflict in Europe, or the spate of clinical holds this week. I am […]
January 20th Biotech Update
Not much new is going on at this point. The sector does not look good and one should think there is more downside but it is already stretched to the downside. The selling just seems relentless so far and at some point one has to ask where the marginal sellers are coming from. The generalists […]
January 14th Biotech Update
It is not going well for the sector. There just seem to be no buyers at any levels. I am not sure what will bring the buyers back. Obviously the biggest component is M&A but keep in mind the sector reaction after MRK bought XLRN. I have a hard time thinking through big risks. Drug […]
January 12th Biotech Update
I think the big news that was going to drop this week has dropped. There are still a lot of companies I am going to be following up with so there is still plenty to write about but I do not big new news coming. Given the lack of M&A and some negative news the […]
January 10th Biotech Update
Well, if you thought JPM 2021 was a disappointment you had not seen JPM 2022. While there can still be individual stock news I think the lack of any significant deals means that M&A is not going to be a theme in this conference. I guess the one advantage we have this year is that […]
January 5th Biotech Update
Well, the New Year started off so well but it feels a lot like last year. To be fair that is not completely surprising as simply changing the calendar does not alter the fundamentals of the sector. Yesterday (and the early morning today) feels like rotation in the belief that Omicron will not crash the […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
2021 is finally over and 2022 enters with hopes of a better year but we all are probably scarred from the year that was 2021. JPM is coming and that brings with it hopes of M&A, positive guidance, and perhaps positive data. Last year it was not great and that ended up being a signal […]
December 20th Biotech Update
We had a good end to last week but we are really just bouncing around at the recent lows. I suspect we are going to be moving with the market in that if the market rallies the sector moves higher and perhaps outperforms but if the market breaks down we break the lows and likely […]
December 10th Biotech Update
We did not get the three days of momentum, which is disappointing. I understand we had two good days and perhaps in the immediate term we were overbought but one the way down it was relentless and so it is not crazy to think that if we are reversing there could be a long streak […]
December 6th Biotech Update
We started lower this morning which is not that bad. I think if we rallied off the start then we likely give it up but a dip to flush out the frustrated traders (and let us be honest that is all of us at this point) might clear the deck for a really rally later […]
November 17th Biotech Update
The sector is doing what it does. It is remaining in the range and aggravating investors with it continued under performance. This should be a seasonally strong period but we remain stuck in the range. Perhaps investors still have some lingering concerns about drug pricing reforms and the details that are being worked out. Or […]
October 20th Biotech Update
The sector feels like it is in a worse place than it actually is. I think the underperformance compared to the broader market is aggravating especially because this have been happening for awhile. All of that disappointment aside, the sector does not seem like it is going to breakdown but of course one worries what […]
October 18th Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week both in terms of news and trading. I think they are linked in that we had a series of bad news and that is impacting the sector. I do not think any of the news runs the risk of forcing a downside break but certainly it was not […]
September 24th Biotech Update
It really feels like the sector wants to continue the trend higher but the broader market is not going to let it. I think if the broader market sentiment were neutral, then the sector would be moving higher. I do not think the sector has a chance to move higher in the midst of a […]
September 9th Biotech Update
The low of yesterday got us into the $130 range on the XBI and this could be the place where the chart resets and we place that higher low. There is nothing that can happen today to definitively put in that higher low (well, I guess if we get above $137 and set a higher […]
August 2nd Biotech Update
With another big week of earnings, we have another potential to get some interest in the sector but last week was a good week of earnings and another bad week for the sector. Everyone is still waiting on the big exciting thesis changing news and/or M&A, which has been notably lacking in the sector this […]
July 23rd Biotech Update
There is nothing yesterday that has dissuaded me of my negative view of the sector. It is always possible that the downtrend ends but my mantra is always that assume trends remain until proven otherwise. As such my base case (until shown otherwise) is that the sector is going to making its way to a […]
July 9th Biotech Update
I would have thought the sector would have provided us with a more clear signal as to its next move but I look at the sector right now and see both upside and downside potential. Clearly we broke below the recent lows and potentially ruined a clear uptrend but if we are able to set […]
