It is a New Year and two paths diverge in the sector. One would be an unprecedented third year in a row of decline and the second would be the first up year after back to back declines. I am going to use the next couple days to delineate my predictions for 2023. LLY […]
December 28th Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week but we remain in a range and rangebound. We are back at the bottom of that range and I do not see anything in the sector that should break us out one way or another. If anything, I think we start to drift a little higher as we […]
October 14th Biotech Update
I had a sneaking suspicion that we would reverse on that gap lower but in no way shape or form are we out of the woods. The Fed still will increase rates and risks to the financial markets remain high. It seemed that the doom and gloom had reached extreme levels and so a short […]
October 5th Biotech Update
Apparently all I need to do is put out a cautious note and the market takes off. I am going to goose the market even more as I am still not convinced we are out of the woods. I do not see us at the end of the interest rate hikes and the Fed wants […]
September 21st Biotech Update
The sector has managed to not breakdown and that is good. We are still in a precarious position with the macro still having the potential to drive us down regardless of the fundamentals. It really depends on the rate increase and how much the sector has priced in that action. We know that rates are […]
September 8th Biotech Update
Sorry for the little break. I am hopefully back and at it. The sector has not done great but it does not look too bad either. There have been lower lows and lower highs, which signals a clear downtrend but it seems to have been pretty orderly and we are now back to the old […]
August 15th Biotech Update
A slow start to the week but that is not necessarily bad. The sector has been strong and there has been nothing to change it. I think the biggest news has been outside the sector with the decline in the Empire State index, but I imagine that might not been a massive surprise (perhaps the […]
August 3rd Biotech Update
We started the week at the bottom of the range and within three days we are at the top of the range. I find days like this a little tough to judge. Big positive moves like this make it feel like there is very strong momentum but when they smack against the top of a […]
May 25th Biotech Update
It looked as though the sector tried to reverse a couple of times but it ended up being a red day. It would have been nice to get a good red to green reversal with follow through today but at least we are starting green today. It is important to have a good day today […]
May 2nd Biotech Update
The sector and market continue to do poorly. We are getting close to at least a short term bottom as the move lower has been pretty quick and relentless. Obviously the pattern is for these to be pauses before another move lower but the first thing we need is to at least stop the bleeding. […]
March 30th Biotech Update
The sector has had a good start to the week but we are not getting the big positive news that could really amp the move higher. As I noted the idea scenario would be this positive momentum to coincide with some sector meaningful positive news but not yet. This is not to say it is […]
February 7th Biotech Update
A good start to the week and we are still in the middle of earnings. Obviously the sector has been oversold and it is at least due for a dead cat bounce. It is also possible that last week was the start of the messy bottoming process. I am not sure even the market knows. […]
December 21st Biotech Update
The sector is really trying to confuse me. I thought the least likely scenario was going to be a green day for the sector and a red day for the market and the second least likely would be a red day for the sector and green for the market. It seemed to me that they […]
November 10th Biotech Update
Guess what, the sector remains range bound. We approached the upper end of the range and it was a pretty quick move to the upper end of the range but now we are pulling back. I thought there was a chance that the sector would get closer to the upper end of the range before […]
November 1st Biotech Update
A good start to the week but it is early in many ways. We would want to see this momentum build throughout the day and more importantly build across the days. The sector has had the occasional positive day but it has been a real struggle to string positive days together. Hopefully this is […]
October 7th Biotech Update
Shockingly the sector is rallying with the rest of the market. It seems like it has been awhile and a little morning rally in a broader market rally is nothing really to write home about but it is a start. I have been saying that we were at the bottom end of what seems like […]
September 17th Biotech Update
The sector sort of had that reversal yesterday but it honestly did not seem particularly strong. We are red this morning so perhaps we can get a stronger reversal today to really put in that higher low but the sector seems a little weak. I would have thought we would have at least gotten a […]
September 15th Biotech Update
The sector is in pullback mode. The past two weeks have been pretty frustrating as the sector has not been able to get any traction and every move higher is met by consistent selling pressure. I still think the base case at this point is that we are in a trend higher and if that […]
August 19th Biotech Update
Yesterday did not end well but hopefully the recent lows hold and we get a bounce. I still think as long as the lows hold we could work under the assumption that we are range bound, although I would certainly prefer if we were hanging out near the upper bound of the range as opposed […]
August 18th Biotech Update
Not a ton of more that is going on in the sector. It was certainly nice to see the green but we really need that momentum to continue. I still think the sector is best described as either range bound or potentially starting a new downtrend. I lean towards the range bound but it also […]
