October 14th Biotech Update

Not much is actually happening in terms of news and yet the sector continues to move higher.  We are getting multiple days of green in a row and breaking out into new highs.  I do not think there is anything fundamental driving this move and it seems to simply be momentum and technical.  Clearly we […]

September 1st, Biotech Update

Positive news that happens near support levels tends to have a positive effect on the sector and that was what we saw yesterday.  The broader sector moved higher throughout the day and I suspect it was not simply a one day move and that we will move towards the upper end of the range that […]

August 11 Biotech Update

It looks like we are getting an answer to the direction this morning.  There is a sharp drop for reasons that are not immediately clear to me.  The sector has been hanging out treading water for awhile and I thought that meant when the move happened it would be fast.  I guess I was correct.  […]

August 5th Biotech Update

We are really close to breaking above the recent high and that would be very positive as it stops a lower high from being formed.  It has not happened yet and we could still fail but if the momentum continues it would be even more positive as it would have been done without M&A being […]

August 3rd Biotech Update

It looked grim Friday for the sector.  It simply could not catch a bid.  I am sure most (all) of use tried not to think about the price action this weekend and were resigned to more selling.  Today, however, we get a bounce.  What is interesting is that having being a couple days removed from […]

June 22nd Biotech Update

The sector is trying to break out of its range to the upside.  Not only did it trade above the range on Friday but close above it.  The ultimate confirmation would be a run above the range and then come back and test of the old resistance for support.  So at this point I see […]

June 4th Biotech (and MLP) Update

I would like to say something really interesting is happening in the sector or there is some great opportunity but the fundamental news is sort of like the sector- flat.  It seems to me there is a dual whammy hitting the sector that is acting as some headwinds that are holding it back.  First, MRNA […]

May 7th Biotech Update

Earnings continue and the themes are basically the same.  They are generally good if not better than expectations but they remain cautious for the rest of the year. The sector is certainly rebounding from the selling late last week but there seems to be this odd late day selling despite strength during most of the […]

April 20th Biotech (and MLP) Update

So it looked like last week finally decided the next move would be higher but this morning we start with some weakness.  I would not be surprised, however, to see the market to reverse during the day.  I saw an analysis that showed almost all of the downside on the selloff the past couple months […]

April 7 Biotech Update

So the crisis is over!  Or at least that is the way the markets are behaving.  It is pretty clear that we are having a reversal of the COVID sell-offs.  The market is moving higher including and perhaps being led by regional banks and all those COVID related names (whether it be treatments, PPE, or […]

April 3rd Biotech Update

Guess what?  Job market sucks.  The market dipped a little on that news which I find a little surprising as nothing about it should have surprised.  What was interesting was that the US indicated that its oil producers were willing to cut production as a carrot to get Russia on board.  I do not remember […]

March 17 Biotech Update

Do we get our turn around Tuesday?  Timing is about right in terms of the oversold conditions and that they are almost historically oversold.  A true dead cat bounce would be absolutely epic in the short squeeze.  I am not talk a couple of percent or even 5%.  When the bounce happens it should be […]

March 12 Biotech Update

Was going to do the chat but it seemed to not work.  Will perhaps try again tomorrow.  I am sure bandwidth right now on the interest is not great as demand has increased.  In any case, my bearish lean has unfortunately been accurate.  All of the negatives for the market remain.  The President had an […]

March 4th Biotech Update

Who would have thought that a Joe Biden Super Tuesday victory would cure the corona virus?  The market is rallying on the election as it seems to put Biden back in as the democrat frontrunner.  I suspect that the market would strongly prefer Biden over Sanders as the economy and market actually did pretty well […]

February 14th Biotech Update

You remember how I believed that the sector was at a decision point and was unlikely to hang out close to the recent highs without breaking out or breaking down? Yes, I remember too and of course that is exactly what seems to have happened. While I remain surprised this happened, it does not change […]

January 8th Biotech Update

Iran responded and it went about as well as we could have hoped. The administration has a chance to de-escalate today and given the limited damage done with the attack last night, it should be a day of slowly decreasing tensions. Of course, what should happen and what actually happens can be different. I would […]

July 19th Biotech Update

I am back and need to catch up on the overall market and some sector news. I do want to focus today on a stock we all know and will have more broader sector commentary next week. I do think the sector is set up for a major move as it looks to have been […]

July 10th Biotech Update

The market is in an odd position in that it is doing well with macro having faded into the background. I would keep an eye on the Iran situation flaring again as the Iranians are likely to respond to the British seizure of one of their oil vessels and now Trump is talking about more […]

May 7th Biotech Update

A good day for the sector despite a relatively bad day for the market. This is a rare occurrence for the sector to outperform (at least recently). One day does not make a trend but it was certainly encouraging to see the sector do well and if the market continues to slide it is unlikely […]

January 4 Biotech Update

The broader market is finally supportive of the sector and barring a reversal we should start to see a nice run up into JPM next week. At the very least I can see the XBI making it to $74 with a decent chance it break that next week and retests the $80 level. An inability […]