I guess that is my bad for writing on a Tuesday when I usually do not write. The sector and market did not seem to like that at all, so my bad. In all seriousness, that was certainly not a good day but actually might be good. We now have a clear upside resistance level […]
January 27th Biotech Update
The market is a little odd right now. We are near or at highs and markets at these levels tend to continue higher. Ultimately they will correct and while the moves higher tend to look like grinds, the corrections are fast. What makes the market odd to interpret right now is that we are getting […]
January 20th Biotech Update
So the page has turned from JPM and next is earnings and the usual rush of secondaries. Remember, however, that we had lot of secondaries to end the year, so perhaps the end of January will not be as flush with cash raising as in previous years. Earnings will likely be a little anti-climatic as […]
January 13th Biotech Update
So I think JPM is a complete failure in terms of news. It is obviously a dud in terms of M&A. I do not remember the last time we had a JPM with zero mergers. There have been some with minor deals but it has been awhile since there have not been any. This actually […]
November 13th Biotech Update
So its been a decent week and hopefully we can end on a strong note. Not a lot of news to move the market or sector and perhaps that means we get a decent look at the underlying sentiment of the market. We are past the major catalysts of November and there is really not […]
November 6th Biotech Update
It seems like the election is all but over. The votes have turned and clearly point to a Bide victory and as of writing speculation is that Trump will admit defeat. Of course, Trump does not have to concede for Biden to win but it would assuage investors and remove the last bit of risk […]
November 4th Biotech Update
The election is (sort of) over. While it ended up being closer than the polls indicated, it appears that Biden will win barring some unprecedented court decision to invalidate large numbers of legally cast votes. The closeness of the election, however, makes the Senate now lean Republican. I suspect both Georgia contests will have to […]
October 14th Biotech Update
Not much is actually happening in terms of news and yet the sector continues to move higher. We are getting multiple days of green in a row and breaking out into new highs. I do not think there is anything fundamental driving this move and it seems to simply be momentum and technical. Clearly we […]
September 1st, Biotech Update
Positive news that happens near support levels tends to have a positive effect on the sector and that was what we saw yesterday. The broader sector moved higher throughout the day and I suspect it was not simply a one day move and that we will move towards the upper end of the range that […]
August 11 Biotech Update
It looks like we are getting an answer to the direction this morning. There is a sharp drop for reasons that are not immediately clear to me. The sector has been hanging out treading water for awhile and I thought that meant when the move happened it would be fast. I guess I was correct. […]
August 5th Biotech Update
We are really close to breaking above the recent high and that would be very positive as it stops a lower high from being formed. It has not happened yet and we could still fail but if the momentum continues it would be even more positive as it would have been done without M&A being […]
August 3rd Biotech Update
It looked grim Friday for the sector. It simply could not catch a bid. I am sure most (all) of use tried not to think about the price action this weekend and were resigned to more selling. Today, however, we get a bounce. What is interesting is that having being a couple days removed from […]
June 22nd Biotech Update
The sector is trying to break out of its range to the upside. Not only did it trade above the range on Friday but close above it. The ultimate confirmation would be a run above the range and then come back and test of the old resistance for support. So at this point I see […]
June 4th Biotech (and MLP) Update
I would like to say something really interesting is happening in the sector or there is some great opportunity but the fundamental news is sort of like the sector- flat. It seems to me there is a dual whammy hitting the sector that is acting as some headwinds that are holding it back. First, MRNA […]
May 7th Biotech Update
Earnings continue and the themes are basically the same. They are generally good if not better than expectations but they remain cautious for the rest of the year. The sector is certainly rebounding from the selling late last week but there seems to be this odd late day selling despite strength during most of the […]
April 20th Biotech (and MLP) Update
So it looked like last week finally decided the next move would be higher but this morning we start with some weakness. I would not be surprised, however, to see the market to reverse during the day. I saw an analysis that showed almost all of the downside on the selloff the past couple months […]
April 7 Biotech Update
So the crisis is over! Or at least that is the way the markets are behaving. It is pretty clear that we are having a reversal of the COVID sell-offs. The market is moving higher including and perhaps being led by regional banks and all those COVID related names (whether it be treatments, PPE, or […]
April 3rd Biotech Update
Guess what? Job market sucks. The market dipped a little on that news which I find a little surprising as nothing about it should have surprised. What was interesting was that the US indicated that its oil producers were willing to cut production as a carrot to get Russia on board. I do not remember […]
March 17 Biotech Update
Do we get our turn around Tuesday? Timing is about right in terms of the oversold conditions and that they are almost historically oversold. A true dead cat bounce would be absolutely epic in the short squeeze. I am not talk a couple of percent or even 5%. When the bounce happens it should be […]
March 12 Biotech Update
Was going to do the chat but it seemed to not work. Will perhaps try again tomorrow. I am sure bandwidth right now on the interest is not great as demand has increased. In any case, my bearish lean has unfortunately been accurate. All of the negatives for the market remain. The President had an […]
