I said that a kick was possible for the sector and it could be pulling one off. Yesterday ended up better than I expected and was the start of that save but the market remains in a precarious position with anxiety over the election potentially overwhelming everything today. Of course, the consensus seems to be […]
October 29th Biotech Update
As awful as the day was yesterday, the sector is not quite broken. This is not to say that things look great but a reversal and green close today could save it. Another day lower and we can call the trend as it would be a potentially lower low establishing. I am not very optimistic […]
October 23rd Biotech (and MLP) Update
Yesterday, we had a nice follow through rally from the early morning move higher. That was nice to see and could possibly indicate that we are in the making new high phase of the uptrend. We still are in a limit news phase with earnings to start becoming a larger and larger story (at least […]
October 22 Biotech Update
The past couple days have not been great but we still remain in the uptrend and that has to be the assumption until that trend is broken. We are probably at an area where support should happen and a bounce develop. If we continue downward and do not get any real support, it would raise […]
October 16th Biotech (and MLP) Update
Looks like we are going to have a decent end to the week. I am still not sure if the sector is going to continue to push this higher high even higher or we get a pullback to establish a new higher low. It certainly looks like the sector wants to move at least nominally […]
September 24th Biotech Update
We are not quite in trouble with the sector despite the recent sell off and pain. Obviously the broader market is not helping but we have not broken below recent lows and still can reverse (needs to be soon) higher and make a higher high to start a new trend. Of course, nothing is guaranteed […]
September 23 Biotech Update
We could be setting ourselves up for moving to a higher high with the reversal yesterday. While it certainly seems possible, this would also be the potential start of a new trend so I would be cautious in putting too much stock in it until we see some real confirmation. In this case it would […]
September 21 Biotech Update
A weak start to the week and it is not immediately clear the cause. The sector certainly had a decent run last week and a little consolidative pullback is not crazy. The broader markets were weaker last week and so this could be a continuation of that move. I actually sort of like this setup […]
September 17th Biotech Update
The sector has been strong and today is the first real test of this move, although when I say test it is more to see how much stronger it can be. Most of the days this week opened strong and that strength continued but today we open red and so we get to see if […]
September 16 Biotech Update
The early week deals have set a nice rally in the sector which was expected. The positive is that we not only broke above the last lower high but also closed above it. As such, I think it is clear that we have broken the down trend and so the question now is whether we […]
September 14th Biotech Update
We are back baby! This is the M&A that the sector has been wanting. If this cannot break the sector out of the downtrend and push it back to highs (if not higher) then not much else could. The ideal scenario would be a push above the recent lower high today but we were pretty […]
August 19th Biotech Update
This has been quite the week with it starting by me stepping in dog vomit and then two days of outage of TD Ameritrade and not with that sorted out we get double CRLs for drugs that most probably thought would get approved. The XBI is more resilient to the new and stronger FDA than […]
July 31st Biotech Update
As much as I am worried about the market and sector, it is holding up so far and that support in the sector held as well. I think we lost the uptrend but we are not quite in a breakdown mode. It is possible that we transition from the uptrend into a consolidation/sideways trading for […]
July 10th Biotech Update
So the sector had its breakout above the old range. It was tested and held and now we seem to be establishing a new range or we could actually be setting up a trend move higher. It is hard to see anything really clear with the sector at this point. In some ways it depends […]
June 8th Biotech Update
An interesting start to the week in terms of news at least. The sector remains mired in its range, which with the news over the weekend seems a little surprising. My thought Sunday was that we would remain in the range but make a move to the higher end of the range as the news […]
May 27th Biotech Update
The sector sells off as later in the morning yesterday and on the open today. This remains consistent with my contention that we could be in for a range bound market. It is going to take a couple more round trips between the highs and lows of the range to really convince me (and likely […]
May 19th Biotech Update
What kills bulls runs in the sector? News can but the floodgate of secondaries opening is also a sure why these end. Yesterday saw the opening of the secondary window and while the first wave of secondaries does not always kill bull runs, it seems like we are at the beginning of the end. We […]
May 1st Biotech Update
We finally get two days in a row of the same move but unfortunately it is down. This is not completely surprising as it is completely reasonable that the sharp move higher in the market needs to pause and/or retrench a little. Of course, the tension and worry will be whether or not this is […]
April 30th Biotech (and MLP) Update
We continue with a back and forth week. I think we have alternated up and down days this entire week. This continues day and clearly we have a week of indecision. This is not necessarily bullish. Yes, it is bullish to basically digest a move higher with sideways action but the news this week has […]
April 29th Biotech Update
Yesterday was a retracement day and seemed almost like a rotation out of what was working (biotech) into lagging sectors (banking). Given the strength in the sector it should be able to handle the retracement before continuing the move higher. The only worry is the XBI compared to the IBB. The IBB had made new […]
