We are up against it. Either these mid-$70s hold on the XBI or we are heading down to around $60. This is not a technical issue at work but two brutal fundamental issues that came to the fore the past couple of days. I will talk through them as opposed to focusing on individual stocks. […]
February 6th Biotech Update
A relatively slow start to the week both in terms of news and trading. Last week we had a lot of large cap earnings and earing season continues but Mondays tend to be a little slow on the reports. We started the day red and are struggling to get to green. That would be a […]
February 3rd Biotech Update
I think I was right that we were entering a new uptrend but it still looked like we were in the range. It seems like we are in the process of breaking out but we still need to retest the old resistance and make sure it is new support. Whether we need to run higher […]
January 25th Biotech Update
Are we setting up for that breakout? Just like last week we are in the position to do so but remember last week we ended up failing. While I am not sure there is any fundamental reason for us to breakout as there is not a ton of new, I do get the sense that […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
It is a New Year and two paths diverge in the sector. One would be an unprecedented third year in a row of decline and the second would be the first up year after back to back declines. I am going to use the next couple days to delineate my predictions for 2023. LLY […]
December 29th Biotech Update (Prediction reviews)
We end the year hopefully on an up note but nothing has really changed about the sector. We are range bound and a drifting in the range. The length of time spent in this range really makes it into really strong support or resistance for the move. It makes me think that when we do […]
December 29th Biotech Update (Review of my first 5 2022 predictions)
As the year wraps up it might be time to go back through my predictions for 2022 as I get the 10 ready for 2023. It can be a little humbling as one is not always as right as one would have hoped but I will review 5 today and 5 tomorrow. Prediction 1 The […]
December 2nd Biotech Update
We remain in a range, although there certainly seems to be a pattern with the larger caps outperforming. As I have noted many times, I suspect that if generalists are going to enter the sector they will first do it through the large caps and then down the capital structure to SMID. We need generalists […]
November 30th Biotech Update
Are we setting up for the Santa rally? It would be a nice way to end the year and perhaps kick off early next year with a strong JPM. I think we are getting closer to the end of the rate hike cycle and if we think the market is typically 6 months ahead then […]
October 31st Biotech Update
A slow start to the week. It is not a bad start but a little weakness after a nice little run last week is a little disappointing. That being said we ran right up to the upper end of the range that seems to have developed and so it is not crazy that we struggle […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
2021 is finally over and 2022 enters with hopes of a better year but we all are probably scarred from the year that was 2021. JPM is coming and that brings with it hopes of M&A, positive guidance, and perhaps positive data. Last year it was not great and that ended up being a signal […]
August 23rd Biotech Update
What is happening? Do we actually have M&A that could be more broadly meaningful for the sector? I think we might actually have had one. Obviously we need to see how the sector ultimately reacts to the deal but it is setup as being really good for the sector and not just for one day […]
August 18th Biotech Update
Not a ton of more that is going on in the sector. It was certainly nice to see the green but we really need that momentum to continue. I still think the sector is best described as either range bound or potentially starting a new downtrend. I lean towards the range bound but it also […]
August 12th Biotech Update
I painted such a nice story yesterday with a setup that was going to move us higher into a long awaited uptrend and then the sector did what the sector has been doing all year. I still think we are setup to get a bull market going but nothing is going to be easy for […]
July 23rd Biotech Update
There is nothing yesterday that has dissuaded me of my negative view of the sector. It is always possible that the downtrend ends but my mantra is always that assume trends remain until proven otherwise. As such my base case (until shown otherwise) is that the sector is going to making its way to a […]
June 24th Biotech Update
The sector is hot today and it is not precisely clear as to why. There has been some news that seems to be read as positive but this still looks to me like a sector that lacks a clear conviction. Usually you could see a day like this and then expect some positive momentum for […]
June 19th Biotech Update
I think the sector is setting up well if we can break above the $138 level in the near term. Yes, we had a couple days of weakness earlier this week but the recent strength (modest as it has been) is setting up that weakness as a potential higher low. This become more likely if […]
June 9th Biotech Update
We had a nice little ramp to end yesterday and hopefully that is a sign of some building momentum in the sector. There are good reasons for us to get some positive momentum with the BIIB approval (it is probably the largest positive surprise this year) and the broader market is likely supportive as well […]
February 3rd Biotech Update
It seems like the reddit traders and the GME short squeeze neither broke the market or revolutionized it. They were unable to keep the price high and avoid the crash (I suspect the Robinhood restriction only hastened the crash) and the were unable to replicate it in their next target of SLV. So odds are […]
September 30th Biotech Update
Given the importance of the election in terms of the market, one would have expected that the debate last night would have an impact on the market. I have no idea how to interpret what happened last night in terms of who won or what they would actually do if elected. The markets last night […]
