We finally get two days in a row of the same move but unfortunately it is down. This is not completely surprising as it is completely reasonable that the sharp move higher in the market needs to pause and/or retrench a little. Of course, the tension and worry will be whether or not this is […]
April 30th Biotech (and MLP) Update
We continue with a back and forth week. I think we have alternated up and down days this entire week. This continues day and clearly we have a week of indecision. This is not necessarily bullish. Yes, it is bullish to basically digest a move higher with sideways action but the news this week has […]
April 29th Biotech Update
Yesterday was a retracement day and seemed almost like a rotation out of what was working (biotech) into lagging sectors (banking). Given the strength in the sector it should be able to handle the retracement before continuing the move higher. The only worry is the XBI compared to the IBB. The IBB had made new […]
April 27th Biotech Update
A new week and it is off to a good start. One debate I often have with myself is whether or not the bottom is in. It is an important question but really unknowable at this point. If HCQ or remdisivr or some other drug comes out as a reasonable treatment for COVID between now […]
April 24th Biotech (and MLP) Update
It seems like the market is slowly getting back to some sort of normalcy. The daily massive moves are slowly becoming more measured moves. Yes, volatility is still elevated and we still get large moves but the days of daily 5%-10% moves higher or lower with even larger swings seems to be slowly moving into […]
April 23 Biotech (and MLP) Update
Good news for investors. Stocks have never been red when weekly jobless claims were over 3 million and with the 4+ million claims this week, we should be fine. Clearly we are in abnormal times but simply looking the at the price action and ignoring the broader economic fundamentals, the market is strong. That seems […]
April 21st Biotech (and MLP) Update
The pattern (losses after hours and gains during the day) held yesterday and we are testing it again today. It is odd and not like some kind of trend we see on a chart, so it is not clear to me what the signs would be that the pattern will end. Plus, I am not […]
April 20th Biotech (and MLP) Update
So it looked like last week finally decided the next move would be higher but this morning we start with some weakness. I would not be surprised, however, to see the market to reverse during the day. I saw an analysis that showed almost all of the downside on the selloff the past couple months […]
April 7 Biotech Update
So the crisis is over! Or at least that is the way the markets are behaving. It is pretty clear that we are having a reversal of the COVID sell-offs. The market is moving higher including and perhaps being led by regional banks and all those COVID related names (whether it be treatments, PPE, or […]
April 3rd Biotech Update
Guess what? Job market sucks. The market dipped a little on that news which I find a little surprising as nothing about it should have surprised. What was interesting was that the US indicated that its oil producers were willing to cut production as a carrot to get Russia on board. I do not remember […]
April 2nd Biotech Update
So it has been interesting the past couple days in the market. There was a lot of buying to end March but I think most saw that as the 60/40 (stock/bond) funds rebalancing. In other words, the move in the markets with stocks crashing and bonds flying meant that the 60/40 funds needed to sell […]
March 31st Biotech Update
A decent amount to talk about (some good some not so good). Yesterday I talked a little about the potential for the bottom to be in and data from China is actually supportive of that thesis. The PMI both bounced back in March and were better than expected. To be fair, a positive PMI survey […]
March 11 Biotech Update
We remain in a macro world but even that remains difficult to trade. The large intra-day moves puts pressure on trades as it could hit stop-loss levels or convince you that the trade is moving too far away from you. In addition, the administration is talking about stimulus and help but it cannot help everyone. […]
March 3rd Biotech Update
I sure hope that yesterday was not the best that the bulls could do. We need that bounce to continue for a couple of days and I suspect that will be the case. There remains a window of opportunity to rally before we start seeing school and work closures in the US, which I believe […]
February 26th Biotech Update
First, I apologize for the emails last night. We all received them as well and no one understands why quite yet. We are looking into it right now and hopefully it was a simple one time glitch. We now have had two big down days in a row and is starting to put some fear […]
February 25 Biotech Update
Today will be interesting for the markets. As I noted, the market has trained most to buy the dips and big sell-offs are followed by new highs. The gap up this morning could all but confirm that we are no longer in that type of market. If the gap turns into a gap and go, […]
February 24th Biotech Update
As I have been saying COVID risk will re-enter the market when (if) it expands outside of China and we now have 4 potential non-China epidemics in the works with Japan, South Korea, Italy and Iran. The weekend did not see any of these potential risks decrease and so we open the week lower. Traders […]
February 21st Biotech Update
I am back and the sector has barely changed. I do feel, however, that we are closer to a move lower than before. The market seems to be revising both the scale of the COVID epidemic as well as its economic impact. If that is true then the next move will very likely be lower […]
February 11 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be in decision mode. It is hanging right around the recent highs and it is almost as if the market is trying to make up its mind as to whether or not it wants to bust through the recent highs. I doubt we simply hang at these levels for long. A […]
February 10 Biotech Update
Last Monday we were following a weak end to the previous week and I expected that to continue early in the week but instead we had a pretty strong rally. Last Friday was another weak day and so one would expect follow through but given last Monday, perhaps not. I am still convinced that the […]
