We still wait on the Middle East to see if we need to add another layer of macro worry to the markets. The longer we go on the more likely tension settle but it still seems to rest on the scale of the Israeli response and whether it compels Iran to respond. A tit-for-tat spiral […]
April 8th Biotech Update
And we are once again dependent on rates and inflation. Rates are moving higher regardless of what the Fed has been saying as the economy remains stronger than expected. I think we started the year with the thought that we could see upwards of seven rate cuts, but it has generally been around three to […]
March 18th Biotech Update
Not a lot of news to start the week. Ideally we need to get some positive momentum going in the sector but there is not a ton of fundamentals to get it going this week. It would not be bad to see the sector get some upside movement without a lot of fundamental news but […]
March 14th Biotech Update
Support held yesterday and perhaps that is an early positive sign that we have reached the bottom of this little selloff. One day does not make a successful test of support but it was nice to see and ideally we can build on that green and even accelerate it into the end of the week. […]
March 13th Biotech Update
Well, we are no longer hanging at the higher levels and my original thought that we would test the upper end of the previous range was correct. We are getting close and perhaps the intraday low the other day was the test, but we are pretty close. It is probably a reasonable time to be […]
November 20th Biotech Update
It was a good end to the week and let us see how we start. I do not know how to really read the moves this week as I suspect it is going to be pretty slow on the news and the volume front. This morning is probably pretty indicative as to what we would […]
October 30th Biotech Update
It was not a great end to last week and it looks like we are going to be getting to that $62 level sooner rather than later. I still sort of worry that we have not had a panic move but perhaps we are setting ourselves up that move this week. In any case, $62 […]
October 19th Biotech Update
And just like that the potential relief rally is over. We are breaking new lows and the little rally looks like another lower high. I had at least one day of potential hope for the sector but my long-standing view that we are heading to the $62 area seems unfortunately accurate. Of course, there is […]
October 10th Biotech Update
Not an awful start to the week all things considered. I still worry that this is simply reset the chart for the next move lower but I still definitely prefer being wrong on that ultimate move and that we find a way put in a bottom at this level. In order to have any confidence […]
July 6th Biotech Update
We are bouncing around support and while it is good that it holds, it is dangerous for the sector. If we wanted to be positive, then we are grinding out some volume adding more strength to this support and providing a nice base from which to move higher. Given that we have all experienced the […]
April 20th Biotech Update
This week has been pretty tame in the sense that we have not really built on the move higher but have not broken below that $80 level that I think is key to hold. I think we are all a little impatient with the sector given its recent performance but grinding right above the $80 […]
April 18th Biotech Update
Would you believe it if I said another day and another buyout with a large premium? I think the lack of M&A had been blamed for some of the previous years of underperforming for the sector and I believe that was a fair point. That is certainly not the case this year. While the sector […]
January 27th Biotech Update
The sector is teasing us. I thought this week had the potential to see a breakout and we are right at the levels. It would be nice to see a clear move above resistance and then a back test in the next week or two to confirm. We have earnings upcoming and that will either […]
November 30th Biotech Update
Are we setting up for the Santa rally? It would be a nice way to end the year and perhaps kick off early next year with a strong JPM. I think we are getting closer to the end of the rate hike cycle and if we think the market is typically 6 months ahead then […]
April 8th Biotech Update
While it looked like today was going to be a flat week of consolidation, the last couple of days have been a disappointment and this is more of a pullback sort of week. Pullbacks are not bad per se as long as it stays above support and I think if we stay above $90 and […]
January 27th Biotech Update
Yesterday had all the setup to signal a turning of the tide for the sector but it fell apart. Of course, the Fed was the cause and the sector does not like increasing costs of capital. There was nothing really that new in the Fed news but it seems like the reminder that rates will […]
December 13th Biotech Update
We finally got a merger Monday and this should boost the sector. So far the sector is doing well in a generally bad market environment and hope this continues. There are certainly some non-sector related risks to the market that would hit biotech but as long as they remain muted, we should be able to […]
November 12th Biotech Update
More of the same for the sector and nothing that compelling is coming out of SITC to spark interest. Without anything that could really change broad sentiment I expect continued grinding in the range. Obviously the range will not last forever but as long as we remain in the range we should assume that will […]
November 8th Biotech Update
We remain range bound with some weakness to end last week and some indecision to start this week. I still think we make a move to the upper end of this range at some point and I do not think the first attempt to breakout will be successful. It is possible but my running assumption […]
August 25th Biotech Update
We lost a little bit of the momentum yesterday but we have had a short strong move and so a little pause is not crazy. Of course a little pause to refresh is different than a move back towards the lower end of the range. Yes, my assumption will remain that we are in that […]
