March 13th Biotech Update

Well, we are no longer hanging at the higher levels and my original thought that we would test the upper end of the previous range was correct.  We are getting close and perhaps the intraday low the other day was the test, but we are pretty close.  It is probably a reasonable time to be looking at values that might have been too pricey more recently.  Of course, there is always risk that the test fails and we breakdown, but I see that as a less likely possibility than a success test of the support.


  1. Roche had their nuero day investor event and they confirmed an EMA filing for Elevidys in mid-2024 for DMD patients aged 4-7. It is positive for SRPT that Roche has taken their time to look at the data and the path forward and decided file later this year.  In addition, there is a clear path to expand the age groups with additional trials.  All in all, Roche sounds confident in the totality of the data and are charting a fairly aggrieve path forward in the EU and this should add some confidence in the commercial potential as well.


  1. Sticking with neurology Eisai has been painting a pretty good acceleration of growth in They have suggested up to $2B in 2026.  I understand that is still two years away but given the level from which it is starting (pretty marginal even this far into the launch), that is going to be significant growth starting no later than early 2025.  To be honest, I would think some of this acceleration would have to start later this year and if this ends up being true, it speaks well for BIIB shares into 2025.  That being said, I suspect that there is going to be some skepticism into that 2026 and it will require some evidence in quarterly numbers before the street gets any sort of confidence in it.



  1. There will be briefing documents released today and an AdCom on Friday for Carvykti (LGEN and JNJ) and Abcema (BMY and TSVT). The AdCom is for expansion into earlier lines of MM treatment and the focus should be on the OS data from the respective trials.  JNJ and LGEN have been aggressively adding manufacturing in the expectation of continued growth.  I suspect that both will get approved, and this might provide some room for Abcema to get some more growth but at this point it seems that Carvytki is the preferred treatment.  The AdCom has some room to change that if there is some curveball in the briefing documents but that is certainly not my expectation.


I will end it here as it has been a little bit of a slow week.  Even though the sector has been trading as if there was a lot of news, it actually has been pretty slow.  That is why I think it is more likely a technical move to a support level rather than a fundamental change.


Disclosure: Long BMY and TSVT

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