It was not a great start to the week. We still remain in that range and what we want to avoid is a low volume breakdown of that range. I do not think it would signal a clear breakdown if that were to occur, but it would put the sector teetering on the edge. Ideally, […]
December 14th Biotech Update
The market is doing OK with the CPI number. You would have preferred not to have seen the fade but given the previous history with trading on CPI numbers, I still count this as a win. It helps that the number was close to expectations and that it seems to have peaked. In other words, […]
December 6th Biotech Update
The year seems to be winding down as we stay in this little range. I am not convinced that this is a bad thing (as long as we end up breaking to the upside as this will be nice strong support). I think the Fed and rates has faded to the background a little but […]
December 1st Biotech Update
Not surprised by the positive day given the news. Positive clinical data. M&A interests. Add in seasonality and it was a nice constellation of events. I wonder what happens later in the month as we get closer to tax loss selling. This is a sector that certainly has its share of tax loss selling potential […]
November 22nd Biotech Update
Not the greatest start to the week but I have a hard time reading too much into this week’s trading. I did notice that large caps outperformed SMID and that has been my theme for a little bit. I still think investors come back into biotech first through large caps and in some ways the […]
October 31st Biotech Update
A slow start to the week. It is not a bad start but a little weakness after a nice little run last week is a little disappointing. That being said we ran right up to the upper end of the range that seems to have developed and so it is not crazy that we struggle […]
October 17th Biotech Update
Another week and another set of worries but the macro environment is about the same. We have the Fed and interest rates (and tied into that are the inflation numbers and potential recession caused by the rising rates). We also have the international political risks and this includes the war in Ukraine and do not […]
October 13th Biotech Update
We firmly remain in do not fight the Fed mode. They have been quite clear and consistent that they will be focused on bringing down inflation through rate increases and that the job is not done. I remain convinced that inflation has peaked and is rolling over in real time. The problem is that in […]
October 10th Biotech Update
Last week was an odd one of sorts. It started off quite strong but ended a weak. Overall it ended up being a slightly positive week but the way it ended did not feel great. The Fed speakers continue to push the narrative of rate hikes and I do not see that ended anytime in […]
September 14th Biotech Update
Well, that was not a great day. Interest rates and risk off are not kind to the sector. As long as we can hold support I think we will be fine. I am not convinced that this is going to be a large and sustained sell off as opposed to a quick adjustment. I get […]
September 13th Biotech Update
Today is going to be a macro day. The CPI data was a little too hot for the market. While I think we have likely seen peak inflation, it probably takes time for it to really cool down and likely involves more rate hikes and a slowing down of the economy (if not recession). The […]
September 8th Biotech Update
Sorry for the little break. I am hopefully back and at it. The sector has not done great but it does not look too bad either. There have been lower lows and lower highs, which signals a clear downtrend but it seems to have been pretty orderly and we are now back to the old […]
August 15th Biotech Update
A slow start to the week but that is not necessarily bad. The sector has been strong and there has been nothing to change it. I think the biggest news has been outside the sector with the decline in the Empire State index, but I imagine that might not been a massive surprise (perhaps the […]
August 8th Biotech Update
A good start to the week and it should continue the momentum for the sector. While I think we still can move on the news, it is also the case that the sector has had a nice run recently. Nothing goes up (or down forever) and the longer the run, the better the news has […]
July 21st Biotech Update
A slow week but a good week for the sector. We are entering earnings and that might provide a little boost or drag but it has been awhile since an earnings season really seemed to impact the sector. They can affect individual stocks but the quarters where you have broad read throughs seem to have […]
July 14th Biotech Update
The sector seems to be doing ok as we inch closer to earnings season. It will be interesting to see how the sector moves on earnings as there is nothing that should really surprise anyone. There are still some issues outside the companies that could impact trading. There is some drug pricing reforms being discussed […]
July 12th Biotech Update
No real news to start the week the juice the sector and so far we have simply followed the broader market lower. This could/should be the pullback that refreshes as we have had a nice run higher and a pullback to the $78 level makes sense. Of course that needs to hold and we need […]
July 8th Biotech Update
I am not sure if we end up green today or not but I think we are finally in a decent position for the sector. There is a virtuous position where a sector has outperformed but investor are underweighted it and so they are underperforming the market. They need to get into the sector to […]
July 7th Biotech Update
Are we going to get the deal? It looks like it and it looks like the sector is responding well. To be fair the sector was already doing well before the report, so this looks like a continuation of that move. I think it is relatively safe to say that the sector finally has created […]
July 5th Biotech Update
Not the ideal return from vacation for me or the end of a holiday extended weekend for everyone else. It would have been really nice to have started this week with a buyout but there really is not a ton of news to start the week. Ideally we can reverse this early weakness and build […]
