September 14th Biotech Update

We are back baby!  This is the M&A that the sector has been wanting.  If this cannot break the sector out of the downtrend and push it back to highs (if not higher) then not much else could.  The ideal scenario would be a push above the recent lower high today but we were pretty […]

June 17th Biotech Update

In a couple of days we are near the upper end of the range for the XBI.  There have been some spikes above this level and one to around $108 that marks the toppity top of the range but we are basically in a neutral space right now.  It is possible that momentum brings us […]

May 19th Biotech Update

What kills bulls runs in the sector?  News can but the floodgate of secondaries opening is also a sure why these end.  Yesterday saw the opening of the secondary window and while the first wave of secondaries does not always kill bull runs, it seems like we are at the beginning of the end.  We […]

May 1st Biotech Update

We finally get two days in a row of the same move but unfortunately it is down.  This is not completely surprising as it is completely reasonable that the sharp move higher in the market needs to pause and/or retrench a little.  Of course, the tension and worry will be whether or not this is […]

April 29th Biotech Update

Yesterday was a retracement day and seemed almost like a rotation out of what was working (biotech) into lagging sectors (banking).  Given the strength in the sector it should be able to handle the retracement before continuing the move higher.  The only worry is the XBI compared to the IBB.  The IBB had made new […]

March 3rd Biotech Update

I sure hope that yesterday was not the best that the bulls could do.  We need that bounce to continue for a couple of days and I suspect that will be the case.  There remains a window of opportunity to rally before we start seeing school and work closures in the US, which I believe […]

February 7th Biotech Update

The sector seems to be in an odd spot. Fundamentals look fine and the trading is not awful but the chart looks precarious. We might have 3 lower highs and 3 lower lows right now. It almost looks like a broadening top but that usually sees higher highs as well as lower lowers. The chart […]

February 5 Biotech Update

So the sell off last week seemed like the market looking for news to sell off on and today it seems the opposite. Corona virus fears continue to decline and we see a market rally and even oil is rallying today. I think market expectations are now that the epidemic will continue to grow in […]

January 17 Biotech Update

I suspect that the sector is setting up for a run at $100 on the XBI if not breaking above it. People expecting a JPM selloff on the lack of news (me included) were wrong and now the fear of missing out (FOMO) of a breakout to new highs might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The […]

January 16 Biotech Video Update

So today I did a chat on Twitch. If you go to the page there should be a video recording that you can watch. Rest assured quality will improve over time but I sort of like the ability to talk through the issues. Let me know if you have any questions or comments. I […]

January 14 Biotech Update

It is all but confirmed that this is going to be the worse JPM in my memory on the deal front. I knew without CELG and AGN you had fewer companies to be buyers but this is still oddly weak for the remaining large caps. I honestly think the sector is holding up better than […]

January 10th Biotech Update

We are now ramping up the news with the peak coming Monday. Not many deals announced so far and I suspect we need more for us to get a decent rally next week but it is still early in the JPM news cycle. That being said if Monday morning arrives without more deals (and larger […]

December 9th Biotech Update

We have our answer as to the strength of the trend. Positive data are being rewarded (so far) and the perfect storm continues for the sector with not only good data but more M&A. So not only do we need to think about the trend but also whether this is a major breakout as the […]

November 5th Biotech Update

Let us see if the trend is our friend. We hit what should be some resistance and have stalled. Previously, this led to a day or two of a shallow pullback followed by a push to new highs. We are in the second day of a potential pullback so we should be setting up for […]

October 29 Biotech Update

There is nothing that should stop the sector from running higher. Fundamentals look good and it has perhaps the best set of earnings among all sector this quarter. Of course, what it should do and what it does do not always correlate. Sentiment is still negative and could hold it down but fundamentals look good. […]

October 22 Biotech Update

I believe it is safe to say that we have some news today. I strongly suspect the news will be viewed as positive and should drive the sector higher. Let us dive into this news. Aducanumab work! Sort of. Perhaps. I cannot think of a drug that failed futility only to come back later and […]

September 30 Biotech Update

The sector continued to underperform. I suspect part of this is a continuation of the overall underperformance and part is increasing fear around Warren’s rise in the polls. That is not going away anytime soon. Warren is not going to suddenly fall off a cliff and it is not as if she is the only […]

September 24 Biotech Update

News remains slow but the macro remains in the background. There is a chance that China trade tensions ease (only before rising again) and Iran is fading into the memory (but this is not over yet). Unfortunately, the market is rallying a little but the sector seems stuck in the mud. It is a little […]

August 12th Biotech Update

Another week with another set of macro concerns. I was waiting to see if there would be any interesting biotech news but I guess not. There was some late last week but this morning seems driven by macro (your choice between Argentina and/or Hong Kong and/or China trade). I see little on the horizon that […]

July 30 Biotech Update

Tell me if you heard this before. Good news in the sector that moves individual stocks and yet little effect on the broader sector. We have yet another day with good news (clinical and earnings) and yet the sector is barely green. Granted the broader market is red but this has become a trend. I […]