I guess we are not done with rates quite yet. We do seem to be a little sensitive (at least more so than I would have thought). Fed day was not great but as rates fell, the sector did better. I think we are all done with being so tightly correlated with interest rates but […]
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January 16th Biotech Update
JPM is over and it was an OK conference. It was not the best with deals but there was a big group right before the conference and so all in it was a hefty amount of deals. The conference appeared one of the more upbeat in recent years and that bodes well. I think we […]
December 14th Biotech Update
News is going to start slowing as we get closer to the holiday and new year. That being said we are having some very nice momentum to end the year. This is probably the strongest we have been for a long time. It seems clear that rates have peaked, and the next move will be […]
October 23rd Biotech Update
The market is not doing well with rates moving higher still and we all know what that means for the sector. It looks like yet another day with generally positive news in the sector and yet we will not be able to move higher. I feel like we are at the stage where everyone is […]
October 20th Biotech Update
When the market zigs when the information zags, it sends a strong signal. That was why I think PFE put in a bottom when they massively cut revenue guidance but ended up green. Last night was a set of good news for the sector (not massively so but certainly important news) and so we should […]
September 22nd, Biotech Update
I thought we were heading to these levels and unfortunately we made it. This certainly needs to hold because the next real support ends up being around $62. The whole market is weak an so this is not necessarily an XBI issue but we have been in a bear market for multiple years and seemingly […]
August 23rd Biotech Update
Nothing is going to change my overall view on the market and the sector, where I think we need to touch that 52-week low to find significant longer-term support. We keep seeing rates going higher and while the cause of that does not matter, the increasing costs of capital always end up being a drag […]
August 17th Biotech Update
Well, the lower low seems to have been put into place as the sector is acting pretty heavy, which is no surprising given that the broader market appears weak as well. I think we end up get to the 52-week low area for the sector (around 72 on the XBI) before we likely get real […]
August 15th Biotech Update
The sector is not doing great nor is it really breaking down. We are perhaps in the post earnings, late summer malaise that drifts. Of course, that does not mean that we cannot have significant movements or price action in particular names but I suspect that we are going to be slow on the trading […]
May 18th Biotech Update
The FTC news with AMGN and HZNP was an awful way to start the week but in all honesty, the sector seems to have held up. The green day yesterday could be setting up a higher low, which assumes we make a higher high. I would not say the all clear has been signaled but […]
April 17th Biotech Update
Last week I wanted to see a nice move above the $80 level on the XBI as a way to perhaps setup a little bull run. It failed but today is certainly different. The move today was sort of what I was looking for last week and we need to stay above the $80 level. […]
April 12th Biotech Update
Well, it does look like we are still in this mini range. The market could be in rally mode today with the CPI coming in cooler than expected. While I am not convinced that the CPI looks that much cooler than expected (0.1% MoM versus 0.2% expectations), it seems to be enough for some significant […]
March 15th Biotech Update
Not the best start to the day. It seems like banks are taking a hit (and not just the regionals but even the too big to fail variety) and as long as the market perceives a banking crisis, it will be difficult for the market to rally. To be fair when you have two of […]
March 3rd Biotech Update
I am a little torn by the market and sector at this point. Part of me sees the recent weakness and pullback as a natural consolidation and part of me sees it the start of the last major downside related to the rate hike cycle. Expectations of rates have increased and I keep going back […]
March 1st Biotech (and Energy) Update
Well, well, well. A lot happened in the neuro space where there was concerns that it would become significantly more restrictive but I think that is off the table. Is the sector in a better place? I think so as there are a set of broader overhangs that I think it has to work through. […]
February 3rd Biotech Update
I think I was right that we were entering a new uptrend but it still looked like we were in the range. It seems like we are in the process of breaking out but we still need to retest the old resistance and make sure it is new support. Whether we need to run higher […]
January 22nd Biotech Update
We might have another week where we can break out. Last week we certainly had a chance but fell short. The rally to end the week, however, put us in range to make another attempt. We have been spending a lot of time at the top of the range recently and I tend to think […]
December 29th Biotech Update (Review of my first 5 2022 predictions)
As the year wraps up it might be time to go back through my predictions for 2022 as I get the 10 ready for 2023. It can be a little humbling as one is not always as right as one would have hoped but I will review 5 today and 5 tomorrow. Prediction 1 The […]
December 22nd Biotech Update
The sector has done well since we approached the lower end of the range as was expected. A bounce from the low end made perfect sense. We are basically in the middle of the range and I still suspect that the sector makes it way to the upper end around $86. It will not be […]
