January 14th Biotech Update

It is not going well for the sector.  There just seem to be no buyers at any levels.  I am not sure what will bring the buyers back.  Obviously the biggest component is M&A but keep in mind the sector reaction after MRK bought XLRN.  I have a hard time thinking through big risks.  Drug […]

January 13th Biotech (and Energy) Update

The sector cannot help itself and stress investors.  We are back at the critical level of support and if it breaks then I think there is significantly more downside.  My view is that support will hold until proven otherwise (just as resistance will hold until proven otherwise).  Given the lack of really positive news or […]

January 4th Biotech Update

Yesterday ended up being a good day but we have seen this before and to really turn the page we need to have multiple good days in a row. So while it was nice to see and was a good start to the new year, it will take more than a single day to convince […]

January 3rd Biotech Update

2021 is finally over and 2022 enters with hopes of a better year but we all are probably scarred from the year that was 2021.  JPM is coming and that brings with it hopes of M&A, positive guidance, and perhaps positive data.  Last year it was not great and that ended up being a signal […]

December 1st Biotech Update

It is hard to be optimistic with the sector.  We are well overdue for a bounce and if we assume that we are in a bear market these rallies can be significant.  I have been looking at the sector as being in a large range and now that has been clearly broken.  Is there a […]

November 5th Biotech Update

We have an interesting setup for the sector.  It looked for a bit like the momentum was going to take it to the upper end of the end where it would stall.  It stalled yesterday fairly short of the upper end of the range.  The selloff yesterday and this morning are sort of resetting the […]

October 29th Biotech Update

It was a good day for the sector yesterday and with generally positive earnings there is a chance we could build some momentum.  Add to that the removal of the drug pricing reform threat (it came out yesterday that was removed as a source of funding) and you have the potential to develop momentum.  Of […]

October 14th Biotech Update

A good morning so far.  It is certainly nice to see and ideally this is where we start to build some momentum.  We seem to have had countless false starts but if you take a step back it almost looks as if this entire year (since about March) has been a range between $120 and […]

October 4th Biotech Update

The sector is at an odd sort of place.  It seemed to catch a break and had a reversal off of some support late last week and today we are back to the selling.  It does not help that the broader market is not doing well either but at some point the sector has to […]

October 1st Biotech Update

The sector cannot catch a break as we get great clinical news this morning and it will likely end up hurting the sector more than helping.  The question in my mind now is whether the support for the sector is $122 or $118 ranges as one cannot ignore the selling in response to positive news.  […]

September 30th Biotech Update

What seemed like long rumored has come to pass with a decently sized deal in the sector.  The reaction yesterday was quite negative and I think expectations on price got too high.  I firmly believe that if this deal was announced last Monday (before the runup in XLRN started) at this exact same price the […]

September 29th Biotech Update

The sector is hostage to the broader market at this point.  I think if there was at least a neutral broader market environment then the sector would look and feel a lot better.  Between the Evergrande issue and now what is probably fears over the debt ceiling (yet again we have to talk about this), […]

August 27th Biotech Update

Still not a lot of news in the sector.  The XBI basically pushed up to the upper end of the range and is now pausing/retracing.  The question is what happens after the pause?  Is it a pause that refreshes and allows for a breakout or is it the start of the retracement to the lower […]

August 19th Biotech Update

Yesterday did not end well but hopefully the recent lows hold and we get a bounce.  I still think as long as the lows hold we could work under the assumption that we are range bound, although I would certainly prefer if we were hanging out near the upper bound of the range as opposed […]

August 12th Biotech Update

I painted such a nice story yesterday with a setup that was going to move us higher into a long awaited uptrend and then the sector did what the sector has been doing all year.  I still think we are setup to get a bull market going but nothing is going to be easy for […]

July 7th Biotech Update

The broader market did not help yesterday but we certainly did not ruin the potential uptrend but we did nothing to confirm it either.  I think another decent sized down day today would be a problem but we have almost been straight down the past week so a snap back rally would not be a […]

July 6th Biotech Update

Hey, guess what?  A long weekend and still no deals.  We should not be surprised at this point but it remains disappointing.  I believe that most of us are at the acceptance level of the situation and no longer think that M&A is going to happen but it is not a situation that is sustainable.  […]

June 21st Biotech (and MLP) Update

We has some M&A to start the week but not in the sector.  Deals have been happening to a certain extent but they have been partnerships and not M&A.  Is that the wave of the future?  Buying private companies and partnerships when it is public.  That has been the pattern so far this year and […]

April 29th Biotech (and MLP) Update

There certainly seems to be a trend in earnings.  The impact of the pandemic is still being felt and if we think about it, the 1Q21 was basically peak cases in the third wave and so it should also mark the peak impact.  All that being said I suspect most investors are going to want […]