The sector is not looking that great. We are at the level that could have been the support for a range bound market but we are marginally below it. It makes me think that we are heading down to the $72.5 area but the move has been more or less straight down and so are […]
September 18th Biotech Update
So we stopped the clear downtrend when we made the move to $81 but all that did was stop us from having a lower high (we basically made it to the previous high of the downtrend). I think it is pretty clear that we are not able to start an uptrend and we are going […]
September 11th Biotech Update
Not a ton has changed. We are setting up the potential to establish a higher low but that probably needs to be done this week and I still think there is a potential to revisit the lows as opposed to stay well above them. As I noted last week, I sort of lean towards more […]
July 18th Biotech Update
So far so good this week. We definitely need to continue the strength. I would have ideally preferred to finish closer to the highs but a nice strong green to start the week is good. We are above the $85 level and not messing around this level and moving higher adds to the initial strength. […]
July 17th Biotech Update
Last week was a weird week. It looked good but there was one strong day and a lot of days that could not build on it. To be fair, those days did not look bad as the sector held up to some selling pressure as well but I would not look at them as positive […]
July 11th Biotech Update
It was a very nice start to the week, but I sort of feel like we are in a strange spot. I am not convinced that the sector is now clear of breaking down. I can easily see a couple days of weakness that puts us under the lows of yesterday. I can also see […]
June 27th Biotech Update
This is it. We either bounce from these levels or we are setup for a much larger selloff as we set a lower low. I strongly suspect that we rally as we have basically gone straight down. Even if this level ultimately fails in the next week or so, I think the selling has been […]
June 26th Biotech Update
We are running out of chances. We desperately need to find a higher low and cannot fall below $82.5 area as that would look like a lower low. On the positive, we are looking oversold after last week and so I think it would be difficult to continue the selloff and break below that level […]
June 21st Biotech Update
The trading did not start well but it ended up fine. That is quite important. We are at an area that should act as support (at least somewhere around these levels) and so not falling any further is not more important that moving higher, but it certainly is up there. It was good that we […]
June 20th Biotech Update
Not the best way to end a week but we are at what could be a level of support and I talked about this possibility. It was not the less stressful version of setting up a bullish trend but heading down to these current levels and using it as a support to a move to […]
May 23rd Biotech Update
A nice little rally yesterday and hopefully we can continue that momentum. Obviously the ideal scenario is that the sector can break out and go to a higher high after having set a higher low. To be fair, we have been in this situation before and even had a mini upward trend established only to […]
May 16th Biotech Update
The sector absolutely cannot catch a break. Everything was looking good and solid and now the proverbial rug has been pulled out. There is no recovering today. It will be red but the broader move is not done (at least it does not have to be). I think as long as this pullback stays above […]
May the 4th Biotech Update Be With You
We seem to be finally breaking out of the range especially if the broader market can at least hold up. The news continues to be good for the sector and that seems to be bring more investors and interest. As long as these new investors can make money there should be a nice momentum that […]
May 1st Biotech Update
After taking a one week break from a merger Monday we are back at it. The lack of M&A was an explanation in previous years for the sector underperformance but that cannot be said this year as it has accelerated. Yes, there could be other reasons for underperformance but bull markets climb walls of worry […]
April 17th Biotech Update
Last week I wanted to see a nice move above the $80 level on the XBI as a way to perhaps setup a little bull run. It failed but today is certainly different. The move today was sort of what I was looking for last week and we need to stay above the $80 level. […]
March 15th Biotech Update
Not the best start to the day. It seems like banks are taking a hit (and not just the regionals but even the too big to fail variety) and as long as the market perceives a banking crisis, it will be difficult for the market to rally. To be fair when you have two of […]
March 14th Biotech Update
Inflation came within expectations (with expectations that it continues to slowly cool although it still remains high). I think the 50 bps hike is completely off the table at this point and I would lean towards a pause over the 25 bps hike. I am not as aggressive in thinking that the Fed pauses but […]
March 13th Biotech Update
Quite the start to the week and it would be quite disappointing if all the news does not get at least a snap back rally in the sector but there are a lot of moving parts. We have both major macro news as well as sector (and portfolio) news and I will cover them on […]
March 3rd Biotech Update
I am a little torn by the market and sector at this point. Part of me sees the recent weakness and pullback as a natural consolidation and part of me sees it the start of the last major downside related to the rate hike cycle. Expectations of rates have increased and I keep going back […]
March 1st Biotech (and Energy) Update
Well, well, well. A lot happened in the neuro space where there was concerns that it would become significantly more restrictive but I think that is off the table. Is the sector in a better place? I think so as there are a set of broader overhangs that I think it has to work through. […]
