It was a nice day yesterday not because of a massive rally but one where we started solidly red but rebounded into the green. It is always nice to see those reversals and it was not as if it was a quick dip into the red but one that was pretty sustained for most of […]
February 5th Biotech Update
I would not say that we are at the end of the chop for the sector but are probably closer to the end than the beginning. I saw some notes that blamed the lack of rate cuts on the market but I am not sure that is the issue. It is true that rates remain […]
January 30th Biotech Update
A mixed start to the week. Yesterday was quite positive and constructive and today we are giving up most of the gains. We seem to be in a choppy market for the sector and perhaps we are setting up for a more significant trend move (higher or lower) but I still think we are basically […]
November 27th Biotech Update
There is really not a lot to talk about. The news coming out of the holiday is pretty slow. I will keep this short as we continue to setup the end of the year. It will be interesting to see what happens with the competing pressure in the sector with some tailwinds as rates seem […]
November 6th Biotech Update
Well, that was quite the week and end to the week. Why the sudden strong end to the week on top of a good week? The economy was weaker than expected. We are not close to a recession, but the data came in weaker than expected, which means rates could have peaked and the rising […]
August 10th Biotech Update
I am back but my luggage is still on vacation. Hopefully, I will soon learn of its fate and it will find its way home. I need to catch up on the sector trading and will have more remarks on that later but there is more than enough news to keep me busy with reading […]
March 23rd Biotech Update
Are we heading to $60 on the XBI or not? We sort of broke below the last bit of support yesterday that seemed to clear the way for another 20% or so decline. It could also have been a head fake that then leads to a reversal. I would not look too positively on the […]
February 6th Biotech Update
A relatively slow start to the week both in terms of news and trading. Last week we had a lot of large cap earnings and earing season continues but Mondays tend to be a little slow on the reports. We started the day red and are struggling to get to green. That would be a […]
January 12th Biotech Update
The sector is setting up in an interesting manner. JPM weeks that have a red Monday tend to have a red week but we have been strong since then. Of course, there is a broader market strength that is probably helping the sector to a significant extend because the news has not been bad just […]
September 9th Biotech Update
The market did well yesterday and hopefully we can build on that into the weekend. The ideal scenario is that old level that we broke out of ends up being the support that we use to move higher. Yesterday was a good start for that process but we need continuation. GILD announced some more detailed […]
April 20th Biotech Update
The sector once again shows it brutal head and what seemed like a nice opportunity to build momentum and excitement to the upside gets reversed. While we have not broken to new lows we are certainly approaching the bottom of what could be seen as a channel. The $80s are going to be critical to […]
February 4th Biotech Update
So we have not broken down which leaves the messy bottoming process still the potential pattern. Today will be sort of interesting from a market and sector perspective with the strong jobs report. The jobs report was unexpectedly strong and I assume that will increase rates and rate hike expectations. We know that the sector […]
August 6th Biotech Update
The sector has a real chance to change the narrative and sentiment. Yesterday we broke above the recent lower high (just barely but we were above it for a little). That breaks the clear downtrend but obviously does not mean that it is over. If we can reverse higher today and build off of that […]
March 15 Biotech Update
Well, we have a chance this week to reverse (or continue the reversal) and send a strong signal that the bottom is in. I suspect we cannot do that unless the NASDAQ has also bottomed, which probably means the broader market is going higher. There continues to be little thesis changing news so we will […]
November 11th Biotech Update
Below are my comments on the guidelines that you can forward along. So it looks like the market has digested the outcome of the election for the most part. I still think there is going to be a tug of war in terms of COVID with the vaccine news pushing the post-COVID names but […]
October 8th Biotech Update
We are setting a trend higher in the sector with higher highs and higher lows. What is actually interesting is that we are getting this new trend higher and have not had back to back green days since the middle of September. We have alternated red and green since mid-September and despite that back and […]
July 29th Biotech Update
It has been a little while but I am back and it seems like I have not missed a ton of news despite it being earning season. The sector has more or less chugged along but seems a little heavy at this point. It is not clear to me whether it is the sector or […]
July 8th Biotech (and MLP) Update
We are getting some news as the week progresses but it still remains a little slow on the news. I suspect that this continues as we have the start of earning season at the end of the month and so unless there is really noteworthy news companies are going to likely wait until earnings to […]
May 26th Biotech Update
The week is off to an optimistic start and it is not clear to me the exact reason. Perhaps it is more optimism about vaccines or a belief (hope) that the re-opening will not lead to a new spike in cases. We do know that there seems to have been a massive increase in retail […]
May 19th Biotech Update
What kills bulls runs in the sector? News can but the floodgate of secondaries opening is also a sure why these end. Yesterday saw the opening of the secondary window and while the first wave of secondaries does not always kill bull runs, it seems like we are at the beginning of the end. We […]
