August 15 Biotech Update

While the macro has been major the past couple of days, the sector specific news has been pretty sparse. I was hoping something interesting would happen to write about but there really is nothing major. It does make it a little easier to trade in that we will be sucked up in the macro maelstrom […]

August 7 Biotech Update

Are we in the process of bottoming? Perhaps. The sector still cannot get the moves it deserves based on the fundamental news that has come the past couple of weeks. What will be most telling is when the macro fades and market rallies, does the sector outperform? In other words, have people noticed the good […]

August 5 Biotech Update

We live in a sea of macro right now. Take your pick. China and trade. China currency. China and the protest in Hong Kong. India and Pakistan over Kashimir. Iran seized another tanker in the Middle East. Russia and US existing from a nuclear arms control treaty. This move lower has been fast and violent […]

July 24 Biotech Update

I am a little surprised that there was not more movement from the Senate drug pricing plan (which was later supported by the president). We finally have the outlines of what drug pricing reform will look like over the next couple years and it is generally good for the sector but there was limited reaction. […]

April 9 Biotech Update

A pretty slow start to the week. The sector underperformed yesterday and is red today but doing a little better than the broader market. We are at an interesting spot. It is not clear whether we broke through the upper end of a range last week or whether we have hit resistance and will reverse […]

October 25 Biotech Update

Yesterday was brutal and there is really little to say about it as we are clearly in the middle of a massive correction if not outright bear market. I suspect that we are closer to the end than the beginning but that does not mean we could not see another 10% lower from these levels […]

August 16th Biotech Update

The sector was pretty weak yesterday but remained in its range. While there is nothing to dissuade me from the summer chop, there are some warning signs. First, we are close to breaking through the support on both the XBI and IBB. Second, the early morning bounce was quickly sold. Obviously it remains early but […]

August 6 Biotech Update

A slow start to the week in which there are a lot of earnings calls but likely nothing to change the course of the sector. That has already been set by the large caps and we still need them to stay within striking distance of news highs if not break through them this week. It […]

June 6 Biotech Update

The sector did a little better yesterday but given the strength of the market, it is not a great performance. That being said another couple days in the green and perhaps this year will be different and we will not see the post-ASCO selloff. Obviously it is early but something to keep an eye on […]

March 12 Biotech Update

An interesting start to the week thanks to the weekend news. I thought there would be a little more price action after the news but it is still early and perhaps this just signals how far PCSK9 has moved from investor interest. In any case, there are some interesting pin actions from the news. 1. […]

March 9 Biotech Update

The market is certainly providing a better backdrop and the sector is doing well in response. At this point the trend is your friend, although as I noted the other day there is some froth in certain portions of the market. 1. The big news coming is the REGN PCSK9 outcomes trial data this weekend. […]

November 27 Biotech Update

Perhaps we are in the calm before the storm or people are still recovering from their Thanksgiving meals but the sector is off to a slow start to the week. Trading last week was not too bad even it was on low volume. We have one last potential catalyst this year with ASH coming soon […]

November 7 Biotech Update

Some news to start the day but nothing particularly thesis changing. The sector seemed to hold onto to some of its gains yesterday but more or less a treading water day. The next real sentiment test with perhaps fundamental news would be ASH in early December and perhaps we simply drift between now and then. […]

September 11 Biotech Update

It is a strong start to the week (broader market) with the sector trudging along higher. There are some very strong moves under the surface but those are both higher and lower, so the net impact is a more modest move in the indices. A small move higher after a medical conference is a win […]

July 19 Biotech Update

The sector got a big boost from VRTX last night. If it cannot rally off of this news, then buckle your seatbelts and hedge your positions as there is unlikely to be better news anytime soon. The only large catalyst that could match this impact would be a home run for MYSTIC or AXON crushing […]

June 22 Biotech Update

The sector continues to rocket higher as clearly sentiment has reversed. This run likely has more legs than anyone thinks. The sector has been in a massive bear market and churned sideways for about 18 months. We were barely 5% above the upper end of the range and I saw comments about the sector looking […]

June 21 Biotech Update

Biotech is clearly back. We appear to be breaking out of the range with perhaps broadening participation and increasing volume. I am not a technician but this is looking good. There is not a lot of news but I wanted to touch on a couple of quick points and make this a relatively short note. […]

June 12 Biotech Update

Another slow start to the week with little news and no M&A. The sector did end last week outperforming a falling market and that is continuing today (weak market with relative strength in biotech). That is a good sign but there is very little chance that the sector could hold up in a more severe […]

May 31 Biotech Update

No news continues this week and now we are in a low volume bounce mode. It is unclear if it will hold but it might as it was not as if there was a ton of selling pressure that moved stocks lower. It seems more of a buyer strike than a real concerted effort to […]

May 17 Biotech Update

We have an interesting morning and likely next couple days of trading. The proximate cause of the selling is the continuing and escalating crisis with the Trump administration. While predicting what happens next is a fool’s errand with this administration, it really is starting the look like the endgame is either impeachment, war (started to […]