The question I keep asking myself is whether or not JPM really will be the positive catalyst that everyone is expecting (or really hoping for). We know that companies tend to save good news for JPM and good news should push stocks higher especially if they have been lagging. While I understand that logic, I […]
December 14 Biotech Update
Volume and news is starting to dry up but there were some interesting tidbits to talk about but they are more interesting than really game changing. In any case, we are quickly approach the holiday lull but on the positive side that means we are closer to the JPM rush of news. 1. CLLS reported […]
What Drives the Bitcoin Market?
What is Bitcoin? To answer that question we need a good analogy as to what bitcoin actually is or what it is supposed to do. Bitcoin as a Digital Currency This is actually a more difficult question to answer that you think and the answer has implications as to what the appreciation means and how […]
December 12 Biotech Update
The sector sort of held in there for the ASH hangover but was sort of hit or miss. With ASH winding down, we are seeing the winners selling shares and the losers trying to cut losses. At this point, it is either a wait for JPM or hope for some news out of nowhere. 1. […]
December 11 Biotech Update
There is no ASH hangover quite yet but it usually comes pretty quick after the conference. Perhaps this year will be different given that outside of a few good days, there was no real run up into the conference. There is a lot to talk about and so I will take the next couple days […]
December 8 Biotech Update
Finally, he sector responded well to good news and held those gains. That bodes well heading into ASH (assuming more positive news) but we obviously cannot give all the gains back today. There is not a lot of news heading into ASH but that is likely to change this weekend. 1. GILD bought a private […]
The Bitcoin Bubble
Bitcoin is a bubble. Bitcoin is overvalued. There is a lot of hysteria about bitcoin but that is from both those drinking the koolaid as well as those screaming bubble all the time. It is easy to look smart and snarky and call it a bubble but I refuse to believe the world is that […]
December 7 Biotech Update
I thought we would have to wait until ASH to get a good tell on the market but if the sector cannot hold onto gains today, then there is a real issue. There is good news across the board and different types of good news. These are the fundamental news days that are where investors […]
December 6 Biotech Update
The sector and stocks are going to give everyone whiplash. Despite their being some out performers, it seems like every move higher gets smashed later in the day. There are too many stocks to count that make a nice move higher only to end the day red. As I noted yesterday, it is unclear the […]
December 5 Biotech Update
I was quite wrong about the sector setting up well and it is not immediately clear to me why the sector did so poorly. I want to go through a couple of ideas today and there is probably no clear answer but it is something that is useful to think through. There is not a […]
December 4 Biotech Update
The sector is tied to macro but given the macro events (tax bill status and Flynn flipping) it is not surprising to see this. Ultimately, it is more likely that the fate of the tax bill will drive the market even if longer term the Flynn news might be more impactful but it is more […]
December 1 Biotech Update
It looks like the market and sector are going to be tied to the fate of the tax bill (at least that is how it seemed yesterday) and that makes sense given how many breaks it provides to businesses. The sector modestly outperformed the broader tech sector, which is likely some kind of catch up […]
November 29 Biotech Update
The sector seems to have gotten its footing a little and while that does not mean it will shoot higher, it does seem to have stopped the decline. As I noted before both ASH and JPM can be stock moving with JPM usually a very strong period for the sector as companies save good news […]
November 27 Biotech Update
Perhaps we are in the calm before the storm or people are still recovering from their Thanksgiving meals but the sector is off to a slow start to the week. Trading last week was not too bad even it was on low volume. We have one last potential catalyst this year with ASH coming soon […]
November 21 Biotech Update
Sentiment remains difficult in the sector but I think we are also close to the point that a reversal is due in that it is very difficult to get even more negative from these levels. For instance, JMP noted that in their index only 15 stocks gained last week versus 84 losing value and that […]
November 20 Biotech Update
The news is winding down as we get closer to the holidays but there is some news today. For the most part, I do not expect a lot of news but there could be an M&A push to end the year if bankers need more deals for their bonuses. That being said I think we […]
November 17 Biotech Update
We had a decent bounce yesterday and perhaps we will get a continuation. The sector is over sold as are a bunch of individual names. I am not convinced the bounce is the end of the selling but there were some names that I bought as even if this is not the bottom they are […]
Dave-Trading – December 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
November 15 Biotech Update
The sector continues to struggle and at least today we can blame the larger macro market but the fact is if the markets in general are going to correct, the sector is not going to hold up. I would not mind a broader correction as it likely would be the last leg in the biotech […]
November 13 Biotech Update
Another week and another noticeable lack of M&A. At this point, we are so use to nothing happening that it seems like a normal week (which it is). Even though I enter every week with the expectation that nothing will be done, it still surprises me that the large caps that are getting destroyed because […]
