There is a lot to talk about today, so I will jump right into the most interesting and important news. 1. MYSTIC did not meet the primary PFS endpoint. There was no PFS benefit over chemo with either monotherapy or combination. This is disappointing but not necessarily the end of the story. While the details […]
July 26 Biotech Update
If there has been a consistent theme to earnings this week it has been beat and raise but with stock underperformance. This is not great in the near term as you would prefer good news leading to positive price action but it is not stunning given the recent price action in the sector. If this […]
July 24 Biotech Update
It should be a big week for news but it is starting a little slow, which is not unexpected as the earnings are clustered Tuesday through Thursday. There is some minor news to start the week but it is simply a small appetizer as to what should be a week of news. That being said […]
Dave-Trading August 2017
Dave Trading – August 2017 *** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard […]
July 21 Biotech Update
I am back and missed all the fireworks yesterday. This week has gone quite well for the sector in terms of fundamentals and the price action reflected it. We sort of dodge a bullet as continued weakness would have been a significant problem. News will continue next week with the start of the large cap […]
July 19 Biotech Update
The sector got a big boost from VRTX last night. If it cannot rally off of this news, then buckle your seatbelts and hedge your positions as there is unlikely to be better news anytime soon. The only large catalyst that could match this impact would be a home run for MYSTIC or AXON crushing […]
July 18 Biotech Update
There seems to be a negative pattern developing with strength early that gives way to weakness later in the day. This is not totally unexpected given the need to consolidate but it is certainly sending a signal. We have a set of good news last night and this morning and this should be the strongest […]
July 17 Biotech Update
A little bit of news to start the week but nothing dramatic and still none of the M&A that was supposed to explode this year leading the recovery of the sector. It is starting to look like the next big set of catalysts for the sector will be earnings that are actually starting this week […]
July 14 Biotech Update
Not a lot of news to end the week, so I will touch on a couple of quick longer term themes. The sector was a little stronger than I would have expected yesterday on the back of the news that medicare will not run out of money until 2029 meaning that IPAB will not be […]
July 13 Biotech Update
We have some news and perhaps additional news but unconfirmed as of yet. In general, however, the sector seems to be more or less treading water without a real upside or downside balance. This is potentially a longer term positive as we might be consolidating the breakout through time as opposed to price. I still […]
July 12 Biotech Update
Another day with little news (at least early as the NVS ad com is today). This is really the calm before the storm as we are inching closer to the end of the summer and the start of the fall brokerage conferences and we are actually only a couple weeks away from the start of […]
July 11 Biotech Update
We are getting some news at least but nothing that is thesis changing but perhaps just enough to move the needle for the sector but that is to be determined. I want to touch on some of the more broadly applicable news that happened in the past 24 hours. 1. Perhaps the most important news […]
July 10 Biotech Update
I think the summer doldrums have more than officially set into the market. There is little news to start the week so I expect today to be a low volume move with perhaps a slight bias to the upside as that has been the recent trend. Perhaps there will be some selling pressure in the […]
July 7 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be consolidating its previous move although the broader market does not necessarily look that strong. That being said the trend for the sector is higher and outperformance at least in the recent past. I still expect it to test the breakout level at which point everyone will be expecting the levels […]
July 6 Biotech Update
I am back from vacation and seem to have brought some selling with me. I did not follow the market closely at all so I need to catch up a little but it looks like it more or less was grinding around the recent highs if not drifting a little lower. I had some buy […]
June 23 Biotech Update
We are finally getting a break in the move higher but it has been quiet impressive. There was less excitement in the move than I would have thought, which I see as a sign that a lot were caught flat footed and felt under-invested (although gauging sentiment from twitter might not be the best idea). […]
June 22 Biotech Update
The sector continues to rocket higher as clearly sentiment has reversed. This run likely has more legs than anyone thinks. The sector has been in a massive bear market and churned sideways for about 18 months. We were barely 5% above the upper end of the range and I saw comments about the sector looking […]
June 21 Biotech Update
Biotech is clearly back. We appear to be breaking out of the range with perhaps broadening participation and increasing volume. I am not a technician but this is looking good. There is not a lot of news but I wanted to touch on a couple of quick points and make this a relatively short note. […]
June 20 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be breaking out of its range with another early show of strength. While it is still early and we have been here before, the background seems better for a breakout. We have yet to have a real negative catalyst (has been the pattern) and political overhang is leaving. As a side […]
June 19 Biotech Update
The sector finally does not have bad news this morning to undercut any momentum. We are still waiting on the M&A cycle to start but at this point I do not think anyone is investing in the sector on the expectation of M&A (that is good to see). We are still in the same old […]
