While the general trends have not changed much today, I do want to highlight one cautionary note. We are now through most earnings so that catalyst flow is going to slow and we all know that a biotech without a catalyst tends to underperform. The saving grace is that we are getting close to the […]
August 13 Biotech Update
It is really more of the same with the market drifting and large cap biotechs not really leading and the small caps having some nice moves. I know I have been talking about a potential scenario where small cap biotechs take over as the best performers in the space but it still seems up in […]
Recent Option Activity (8/6 ~ 8/12)
The following stocks had recent and notable activity in their options: $INFI (8/6): 3,822 SEP 10.0 strike Puts were sold (stock at $9.98) for 0.45 or total proceeds of $171,990. This is a bullish/neutral strategy where the seller makes money as long as the stock settles above $9.55 by September expiration. $FOLD (8/12): 1,100 SEP […]
Catalyst Watch – Vol. 2, Edition 24 (8/11/14)
Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date published (or are noted), are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision and are not intended as investment recommendations. Please read our Disclaimer: (1) Catalyst Watch List: AEZS: PDUFA is […]
August 12 Biotech Update
It was another mixed start to the day, which was worse than I would have thought given the ICPT data. Even the stocks that were moving seemed to have relatively muted moves and were giving back a substantial portion of the initial bounce. While small caps were not really outperforming large caps, it was another […]
August 11 Biotech Update
A relatively mixed early day in the market. The open was modestly positive and biotechs seemed to participate but not dramatically. Again it seemed like it was the small caps that had more of a bid but it was not anything spectacular. The morning seemed dominated by news more than anything else. 1. TKMR is […]
Merck – Preparing For The Next Move
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) -NYSE Lately, Merck was under the spot light after Idenix Pharmaceuticals deal, paying $3.85 Billion more than triple Idenix’s market capitalization before the deal , and to take part of the Hepatitis C battle, one of the hottest areas of drug development along with GILD, ABBV and BMY. But the […]
August 7 Biotech Update
A good start for the market but biotechs seemed to not be participating. While nothing in biotech stood out as particularly strong in the morning, it seems like small caps were slightly better than large caps. This was a trend I want to follow as it would mark a significant change in the sector as […]
August 6 Biotech Update
The market had some volatility yesterday and inversions seemed to be dealt a blow this morning. As such, I will focus on these two topics as they seem to be driving the majority of trading. 1. If you were watching the market yesterday, then you may have noticed what seemed like a random and significant […]
August 5 Biotech Update
It was an interesting morning in the market. The broader market was down but biotechs seemed to hold up pretty well but oddly it seemed like it was the small caps that did better. This is interesting because it is the large caps that tend to outperform as a flight to safety (if you can […]
August 4- Biotech Update
It was an interesting start to the week with Ebola and ASPIRE. It was strange that the sector was strong to start but seemed to hit a quick air pocket. Given how far the market has sold off, I would be very surprised not to see a bounce back this week but the market needs […]
Recent Option Activity (7/29 ~ 8/1)
The following stocks had recent and notable activity in their options: $EXAS (7/29): 8,000 OCT 20.0 Strike Calls were sold (stock at $15.78) for 0.50 or total proceeds of $400,000 against a 800,000 share position (this was a covered Call). Trade provides $0.50 of protection to the downside (and takes position out above $20). $DEPO […]
August 1 Biotech Update
Market was quite week in the pre-market and has recovered from those lows but has seemed to turn lower. Over the near term I think the upside is slightly higher than the downside, although I would not be surprised to see another leg lower before we get the bounce. Over the medium term, I think […]
SPY – A Quick Look at The Broader Market
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) –NYSE Yesterday we got a sharp turn in the SP-500 as the daily chart of the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) drops sharply and breaks down the uptrend channel for the first time after two months of uptrend within the channel. Breaking down the 50-Day moving average as well which was supposed be […]
July 31 Biotech Update
The market has certainly been pretty poor since the spike on the GDP print, which is not a great near term signal. As would be expected biotechs are following the broader market lower but not really underperforming more than one would expect for a highly volatile sector. Of course the small caps are getting hit […]
July 30 Biotech Update
The sector and market rallied nicely on the GDP but I am still not convinced that we have an all clear. It was especially disconcerting how quickly the market gave back a lot of the post GDP print gains. Of course, there are still values out there and no reason to sell and run for […]
Catalyst Watch – Vol. 2, Edition 23 (7/29/14)
Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date published (or are noted), are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision and are not intended as investment recommendations. Please read our Disclaimer: (1) Catalyst Watch List: AEZS: I continue […]
July 29 Biotech Update
I had a great email last night that asked me to compare FMI and ILMN and so today I will go a step further and have a day of rumbles with FMI vs ILMN, CNAT vs GALT, and MRK vs PFE. I would talk a little about the broader market and sector but at this […]
July 28 Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week but the sector seems to be tracking the broader market selloff. I am really of two minds in that there are many reasons to expect the broader market to hit a significant air pocket as it seems pricey by a number of traditional valuation methods (CAPE and so […]
July 25 Biotech Update
Market is pulling back a little and taking everything with it. I think we will get a much better sense of how the sector is reacting to the large cap earnings next week as the stocks either pullback further, consolidate, or grind higher. Today I want to follow up on a couple of issues of […]
