November 23 Biotech Update

The market dynamics remain the same.  We are entering what tends to be a seasonally positive period of the year, which might add some tailwind to the broader market.  While I still think the market is going to focus on the prospects of the vaccine coming next year as opposed to the out of control […]

November 11th Biotech Update

Below are my comments on the guidelines that you can forward along.   So it looks like the market has digested the outcome of the election for the most part.  I still think there is going to be a tug of war in terms of COVID with the vaccine news pushing the post-COVID names but […]

November 4th Biotech Update

The election is (sort of) over.  While it ended up being closer than the polls indicated, it appears that Biden will win barring some unprecedented court decision to invalidate large numbers of legally cast votes.  The closeness of the election, however, makes the Senate now lean Republican.  I suspect both Georgia contests will have to […]

October 29th Biotech Update

As awful as the day was yesterday, the sector is not quite broken.  This is not to say that things look great but a reversal and green close today could save it.  Another day lower and we can call the trend as it would be a potentially lower low establishing.  I am not very optimistic […]

October 26th Biotech Update

A mixed start to the week with the broader market and sector lower on the open.  Nothing dramatic on either and nothing really meaningful in news flow, so a sort of drifting would not be unexpected.  I think it is safe to say that we are in the calm before the storm with earnings really […]

October 22 Biotech Update

The past couple days have not been great but we still remain in the uptrend and that has to be the assumption until that trend is broken.  We are probably at an area where support should happen and a bounce develop.  If we continue downward and do not get any real support, it would raise […]

October 8th Biotech Update

We are setting a trend higher in the sector with higher highs and higher lows.  What is actually interesting is that we are getting this new trend higher and have not had back to back green days since the middle of September.  We have alternated red and green since mid-September and despite that back and […]

October 7th Biotech Update

Generally some good price action in the market and sector this week.  There was a slight sell off when stimulus talks were called off but the market now seems to have forgotten that news.  We are probably a month or so of way before the lack of new stimulus shows up in the economic data, […]

September 17th Biotech Update

The sector has been strong and today is the first real test of this move, although when I say test it is more to see how much stronger it can be.  Most of the days this week opened strong and that strength continued but today we open red and so we get to see if […]

August 21st Biotech Update

Nothing too exciting to end the week.  It seems like the $109 level on the XBI remains good support and now that we have bounced of that level we seem to be treading water.  So far $115 appears to be acting as resistance so a strong move higher probably needs to show a clear break […]

August 3rd Biotech Update

It looked grim Friday for the sector.  It simply could not catch a bid.  I am sure most (all) of use tried not to think about the price action this weekend and were resigned to more selling.  Today, however, we get a bounce.  What is interesting is that having being a couple days removed from […]

July 29th Biotech Update

It has been a little while but I am back and it seems like I have not missed a ton of news despite it being earning season.  The sector has more or less chugged along but seems a little heavy at this point.  It is not clear to me whether it is the sector or […]

July 1st Biotech Update

The market seems to be a little indecisive at this point.  We are getting some moves but nothing that seems sustained and only to be reversed to the other side.  At this point, it seems the sector has retested the breakout levels and all else being equal should be setup for a continued move higher.  […]

May 19th Biotech Update

What kills bulls runs in the sector?  News can but the floodgate of secondaries opening is also a sure why these end.  Yesterday saw the opening of the secondary window and while the first wave of secondaries does not always kill bull runs, it seems like we are at the beginning of the end.  We […]

May 1st Biotech Update

We finally get two days in a row of the same move but unfortunately it is down.  This is not completely surprising as it is completely reasonable that the sharp move higher in the market needs to pause and/or retrench a little.  Of course, the tension and worry will be whether or not this is […]

February 19th Biotech Update

The curious case of the flat market continues. At this point, I would call it a clear trend (with the trend being sideways). I know I have been waiting for the move out of this sideways actions and thought it was imminent but at this point perhaps we treat it like any other trend and […]

January 31 Biotech Update

The market seems on edge. It looks like people want to sell but have been so trained to be the dips that it is almost like muscle memory at this point. This sets up for a very quick and severe drop if it happens. In other words, if the market suddenly thinks this dip will […]

January 10th Biotech Update

We are now ramping up the news with the peak coming Monday. Not many deals announced so far and I suspect we need more for us to get a decent rally next week but it is still early in the JPM news cycle. That being said if Monday morning arrives without more deals (and larger […]

November 4 Biotech Update

Of course we get some meaningful news when I am unable to write but at least it was good news. And of course the sector does well when I am not here (but at least it did well). Looking at the chart there really seems like a nice little uptrend has developed with clear higher […]

October 30 Biotech Update

The price action has not been great the past couple of days despite continued positive fundamentals. This could simply be a consolidation of the recent move higher and setting up a higher low for the sector. I would lean towards the sector setting up a higher low at this point as the macro is fine […]