An interesting start to the week thanks to the weekend news. I thought there would be a little more price action after the news but it is still early and perhaps this just signals how far PCSK9 has moved from investor interest. In any case, there are some interesting pin actions from the news. 1. […]
March 9 Biotech Update
The market is certainly providing a better backdrop and the sector is doing well in response. At this point the trend is your friend, although as I noted the other day there is some froth in certain portions of the market. 1. The big news coming is the REGN PCSK9 outcomes trial data this weekend. […]
February 12 Biotech Update
The rule of thumb is that markets never bottom on a Friday but we at least got a short term bottom as the market rallied into the close. Whether this was simply the bottom of a dead cat bounce or “the” bottom of this correction remains to be seen but given heavily oversold conditions, it […]
February 6 Biotech Update
There is not a ton of sector specific news but the broader markets are taking everything down. The XIV is closing, which might have unknown consequences. It is only a relatively small ETF but who knows if it will cause short covering and forced liquidation of other positions. It is possible that the collateral damage […]
February 2 Biotech Update
It looks like the correction continues. Fundamental news does not seem to be matter a lot this week, which seems like typical price action during a correction. This does not seem sector specific and I doubt that it becomes anything more than a correction in a larger bull market but that does not mean it […]
November 10 Biotech Update
We have our answer to what the sector wants to do as the number of large moves higher by the odd stock is over and the large days down continue. It certainly looks like the series of large positive moves were masking a much broader weakness as the trend now is to sell every SMID […]
October 27 Biotech Update
It has been an absolutely brutal earing season for the sector and for pretty good reason but you have also seen some babies being thrown out with the bathwater. Given the selling that has occurred, it is a natural reaction to assume these are buys or a bounce is coming but I prefer to sit […]
October 26 Biotech Update
A lot to discuss and I will do a couple quick hits and then focus on CELG as that seems the most fundamentally meaningful earnings report. This is going to take a couple days to really talk through all these reports but we will start with some high level points. 1. AMGN quarter was inline […]
October 10 Biotech Update
I was in my office yesterday to write but there is really nothing happening in the sector that is exceptionally newsworthy. I was hoping we would have some news today but it looks like we are in a bit of a lull. The good news is that it will not last too much longer as […]
September 11 Biotech Update
It is a strong start to the week (broader market) with the sector trudging along higher. There are some very strong moves under the surface but those are both higher and lower, so the net impact is a more modest move in the indices. A small move higher after a medical conference is a win […]
July 26 Biotech Update
If there has been a consistent theme to earnings this week it has been beat and raise but with stock underperformance. This is not great in the near term as you would prefer good news leading to positive price action but it is not stunning given the recent price action in the sector. If this […]
July 17 Biotech Update
A little bit of news to start the week but nothing dramatic and still none of the M&A that was supposed to explode this year leading the recovery of the sector. It is starting to look like the next big set of catalysts for the sector will be earnings that are actually starting this week […]
June 12 Biotech Update
Another slow start to the week with little news and no M&A. The sector did end last week outperforming a falling market and that is continuing today (weak market with relative strength in biotech). That is a good sign but there is very little chance that the sector could hold up in a more severe […]
June 1 Biotech Update
The sector sort of had some positive news yesterday with TSRO putting itself on the proverbial block. This obviously moved TSRO and sector as it reminded people that good things might happen as well. Given that this was meaningful for the sector (and the lack of other news) I want to focus on a couple […]
May 31 Biotech Update
No news continues this week and now we are in a low volume bounce mode. It is unclear if it will hold but it might as it was not as if there was a ton of selling pressure that moved stocks lower. It seems more of a buyer strike than a real concerted effort to […]
May 23 Biotech Update
So we have some news to discuss. I missed out yesterday as I was at an elementary school graduation ceremony that lasted longer than I expected. There is nothing thesis changing in any of the recent news but certainly some interesting information. The sector is trading awfully and could reasonably be attributed to the spate […]
April 28 Biotech Update
A lot has happened in terms of news in the sector, although there is nothing that was thesis changing. There are some new potential trends to watch but at this point I think most of the news was more or less incremental. I will flesh out more of the ideas in the coming days but […]
March 31 Biotech Update
The sector in general seems to be drifting if not a slight negative bias but we are still seeing good news move stocks higher, which is not a bad setup into AACR. This tends to be an earlier stage conference, so less fundamental thesis changing data and more incremental. I will be interested to see […]
March 20 Biotech Update
Another week and another attempt at the 300 level on the IBB and another week with no real M&A. We are still dealing with the aftermath of the AMGN data and while there seems to be some recovery, I want to spend today talking about a potential implication that seems to have been flying under […]
March 17 Biotech Update
Well, this is not going to be a good day for the sector and that wall at 300 in the IBB is likely safe for now. The key culprit is going to be the AMGN outcomes data, which is a massive disappointment (for anyone outside of AMGN who apparently think it is great). While one […]
