The sector is ripping higher the past couple days, which makes sense given the news flow. I thought the XBI could hit $80 and it did. This is an area of some resistance and the question is whether or not this momentum could actually carry it to the $85 area. Over the near term I […]
January 4 Biotech Update
The broader market is finally supportive of the sector and barring a reversal we should start to see a nice run up into JPM next week. At the very least I can see the XBI making it to $74 with a decent chance it break that next week and retests the $80 level. An inability […]
January 3 Biotech Update
Holy crap, BMY is buying CELG. This is one hell of a way to start the XLRN is aNew Year and JPM week. It is unfortunate for the sector that the broader markets are so weak otherwise this would likely have had a bigger positive impact. Hopefully the AAPL related weakness is fleeting and we […]
December 17 Biotech Update
It really is looking like we are entering a bear market and those sharp rallies that we have seen are simply the sharp counter trend rallies one sees in bear markets. I am not completely convinced that a bear market is coming but I think we are close. As long as the economy remains out […]
December 13 Biotech Update
Not a ton of news as the year closes down. It seems like the market wants to whiplash investors as we bounce around with no clear trends. It does not matter how strong or weak a day is as it seems to have no impact on trading the next day. We should be approaching a […]
April 24 Biotech Update
There is a decent amount of news flow today, which makes sense given that I have little time to cover it all this morning. I will try and go through the main news and touch on the most important aspects. Overall, it is not feeling like this earning season will be enough to change sentiment, […]
Dave Trading – May 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
April 9 Biotech Update
I picked the wrong day to be out of the office. I thought the news will be in a lull before AACR picked up later this week. I guess I was wrong (on multiple fronts). The trading leading into AACR and during AACR will be key to the sector getting a more sustained move higher. […]
March 26 Biotech Update
The market is going to bounce today and there are a number or proximate reasons. It could be the Stormy bottom. A dead cat, oversold bounce. A “maybe there will not be a trade war” bounce. Maybe a little of each or none of them. Bottoms on Fridays are a little rare, so the gap […]
Dave Trading – April 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
March 14 Biotech Update
The trend is your friend barring anything new in the sector. It seems like we at least want to test recent highs if not break through them, although the sector is at an odd position with both seemingly significantly over valued and undervalued stocks at the same time. This actually gives a nice tell for […]
March 5 Biotech Update
Not a ton of sector moving news to start the week but some big data sets. I will touch on one as it seems to have been an often discussed stock. 1. DERM missed. There seemed to be some worry that they would hit 3 of 4 on the endpoints but they missed them all. […]
March 2 Biotech Update
Between continued hawkish fed speak and a potential trade war, the market is going to have trouble getting its feet, which includes the sector. The market has been able to shake off a lot of issues the past year or so and perhaps this will be yet another wall of worry to climb but at […]
Dave Trading – March 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
February 13 Biotech Update
The market had a nice follow through yesterday, although for some reason I do not really trust this rally (yet). It would be nice to see a couple days of flat trading but clearly we are in a different regime with volatility this high. Expect more wild intra-day moves even on the days that end […]
January 11 Biotech Update
While we still have two trading days left this week, it looks like we will end up with a decent performance for the sector. Given the lack of news at JPM, this appears to be a win (assuming it continues) and seems to support the argument that the Monday selling was fast money getting out […]
December 4 Biotech Update
The sector is tied to macro but given the macro events (tax bill status and Flynn flipping) it is not surprising to see this. Ultimately, it is more likely that the fate of the tax bill will drive the market even if longer term the Flynn news might be more impactful but it is more […]
October 25 Biotech Update
ALXN managed to hold onto its gains yesterday, which was a positive but the sector just feels heavy. I am not sure if this is simply related to nervousness over earnings plus the negative news last week or is it more macro related. The broader markets have been weakening and high volatility sectors like biotech […]
October 13 Biotech Update
More of the same with winners drifting higher in the sector and losers drifting lower. I had hoped that volume and interest would have picked up this week but it is looking more and more like we will need earning season and the conferences to drive any sort of interest. Luckily both are fast approaching. […]
August 31 Biotech Update
The good news and move for the sector continues. In isolation the move higher seems a stretch in terms of the fundamental news that we have seen the past week. The news has been good but we have had weeks with better news and did not have this reaction. Clearly sentiment has changed in the […]
