June 19th Biotech Update

The sector started the week looking like it might break under the range but has ended the week threatening to break out above the range.   All that being said I strongly suspect that the outcome is that we once again remain in the range.  At some point the range will fail but trying to time […]

May 26th Biotech Update

The week is off to an optimistic start and it is not clear to me the exact reason.  Perhaps it is more optimism about vaccines or a belief (hope) that the re-opening will not lead to a new spike in cases.  We do know that there seems to have been a massive increase in retail […]

May 19th Biotech Update

What kills bulls runs in the sector?  News can but the floodgate of secondaries opening is also a sure why these end.  Yesterday saw the opening of the secondary window and while the first wave of secondaries does not always kill bull runs, it seems like we are at the beginning of the end.  We […]

January 28 Biotech Update

The sector bounced right where you would expect, which is a positive sign. I am still not convinced that it is setting up well for the near term but you have to respect that it bounced right where support should have existed. This actually sets up for some clarity going forward. If those lows are […]

January 15th Biotech Update

The snorefest that is JPM continues with no deals and not particularly meaningful company updates. The sector was understandably weak yesterday morning but it had a pretty nice reversal during the day. I am honestly surprised at the strength of the sector given the lack of news. While perhaps strength is not the correct word […]

January 13 Biotech Update

It looks like JPM is going to be a dud. The only deal announced so far with the smallish LLY deal for DERM last week. This has to be one of the weakest news JPM I remember. Add the lack of news with Bernie Sanders recent spike in the political polls and this does not […]

The CNST Bull Case in a Single Slide

Constellation Pharmaceuticals presented some compelling data at ASH. In early results from 15 JAKi naive Myelofibrosis patients treated with a combination of BET inhibitor CPI-0610 and ruxolitinib, 12 (80%) achieved a Spleen Volume Response of at least 35% (SVR35). The numbers indicate 8/11 (73%) of the newly added patients had a response. This is a […]

Taking a BET on CNST

Constellation Pharmaceuticals is focused on the development of cancer therapeutics by targeting the epigenetic pathway. It has EZH2 and BET inhibitors in mid-stage clinical studies. Excitement in the stock is driven by the BET inhibitor CPI-0610. There is substantial interest in this class of compounds. While small biotechs often lead the way with novel targets, […]

Initiating: Turning Point Therapeutics

San Diego based Turning Point Therapeutics is an oncology focused biotech that completed a successful IPO in April this year, raising about $190M with pricing at $18/sh. As the stock continued to climb, TPTX quickly filed for a secondary on September 3rd, adding another $200M to its cash hoard. The company is now very well […]

February 15th Biotech Update

Not surprisingly we are in a post earnings lull. While there are still earnings being posted, the bulk of the major ones have been reported. We are also seeing the expected uptick in secondaries, which is later than usual as a result of the government shutdown. In any case, there is nothing particularly sector moving […]

January 15 Biotech Update

We are clearly not out of the woods for a correction but we should also remember that corrections can occur through price or time. In other words, most think of a correction as a retracement of a move higher and while that is most common, it can also occur through time where prices grind in […]

January 9 Biotech Update

The sector move seems to be losing some steam. This is not unexpected nor bad as these overbought conditions need to be reset. The real key going forward is not how much further this move can stretch higher but whether or not we can form a lower high. That will be absolutely key as a […]

January 8 Biotech Update

The sector is ripping higher the past couple days, which makes sense given the news flow. I thought the XBI could hit $80 and it did. This is an area of some resistance and the question is whether or not this momentum could actually carry it to the $85 area. Over the near term I […]

January 4 Biotech Update

The broader market is finally supportive of the sector and barring a reversal we should start to see a nice run up into JPM next week. At the very least I can see the XBI making it to $74 with a decent chance it break that next week and retests the $80 level. An inability […]

January 3 Biotech Update

Holy crap, BMY is buying CELG. This is one hell of a way to start the XLRN is aNew Year and JPM week. It is unfortunate for the sector that the broader markets are so weak otherwise this would likely have had a bigger positive impact. Hopefully the AAPL related weakness is fleeting and we […]

December 17 Biotech Update

It really is looking like we are entering a bear market and those sharp rallies that we have seen are simply the sharp counter trend rallies one sees in bear markets. I am not completely convinced that a bear market is coming but I think we are close. As long as the economy remains out […]

December 13 Biotech Update

Not a ton of news as the year closes down. It seems like the market wants to whiplash investors as we bounce around with no clear trends. It does not matter how strong or weak a day is as it seems to have no impact on trading the next day. We should be approaching a […]

April 24 Biotech Update

There is a decent amount of news flow today, which makes sense given that I have little time to cover it all this morning. I will try and go through the main news and touch on the most important aspects. Overall, it is not feeling like this earning season will be enough to change sentiment, […]

Dave Trading – May 2018

*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor.  Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide.  You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]

April 9 Biotech Update

I picked the wrong day to be out of the office. I thought the news will be in a lull before AACR picked up later this week. I guess I was wrong (on multiple fronts). The trading leading into AACR and during AACR will be key to the sector getting a more sustained move higher. […]