August 12th Biotech Update

I painted such a nice story yesterday with a setup that was going to move us higher into a long awaited uptrend and then the sector did what the sector has been doing all year.  I still think we are setup to get a bull market going but nothing is going to be easy for […]

July 7th Biotech Update

The broader market did not help yesterday but we certainly did not ruin the potential uptrend but we did nothing to confirm it either.  I think another decent sized down day today would be a problem but we have almost been straight down the past week so a snap back rally would not be a […]

July 6th Biotech Update

Hey, guess what?  A long weekend and still no deals.  We should not be surprised at this point but it remains disappointing.  I believe that most of us are at the acceptance level of the situation and no longer think that M&A is going to happen but it is not a situation that is sustainable.  […]

June 21st Biotech (and MLP) Update

We has some M&A to start the week but not in the sector.  Deals have been happening to a certain extent but they have been partnerships and not M&A.  Is that the wave of the future?  Buying private companies and partnerships when it is public.  That has been the pattern so far this year and […]

April 29th Biotech (and MLP) Update

There certainly seems to be a trend in earnings.  The impact of the pandemic is still being felt and if we think about it, the 1Q21 was basically peak cases in the third wave and so it should also mark the peak impact.  All that being said I suspect most investors are going to want […]

February 25th Biotech Update

We got what we needed to start a bounce in the sector but it has to be followed through today otherwise it is simply a bounce that reset oversold conditions, which allows for more downside.  We are at support levels that should be good enough to generate a little bounce (at least), so I lean […]

December 16th Biotech Update

Well, we have had two red days in a row after Monday’s move.  I noted that we should be setup for a rally into the end of the year and that anything other than that bodes poorly in the near term.  So is it time to call it and in the short term?  Not quite […]

December 10th Biotech Update

The sector is clearly doing well and there is some interesting news that perhaps bodes well heading into JPM and the end of the year.  We are not quite making news highs again today but the sector is feeling like it wants to and it really stands in stark contrast to the pandemic and economy.  […]

December 7th Biotech Update

So far we do not have an ASH selloff, which is nice to see.  I think in general we remain with some seasonal and broader market tailwinds and that should take us through JPM in January.  In fact, we are probably getting close to the M&A speculation time but remember that last year was actually […]

September 24th Biotech Update

We are not quite in trouble with the sector despite the recent sell off and pain.  Obviously the broader market is not helping but we have not broken below recent lows and still can reverse (needs to be soon) higher and make a higher high to start a new trend.  Of course, nothing is guaranteed […]

September 14th Biotech Update

We are back baby!  This is the M&A that the sector has been wanting.  If this cannot break the sector out of the downtrend and push it back to highs (if not higher) then not much else could.  The ideal scenario would be a push above the recent lower high today but we were pretty […]

June 17th Biotech Update

In a couple of days we are near the upper end of the range for the XBI.  There have been some spikes above this level and one to around $108 that marks the toppity top of the range but we are basically in a neutral space right now.  It is possible that momentum brings us […]

May 19th Biotech Update

What kills bulls runs in the sector?  News can but the floodgate of secondaries opening is also a sure why these end.  Yesterday saw the opening of the secondary window and while the first wave of secondaries does not always kill bull runs, it seems like we are at the beginning of the end.  We […]

May 1st Biotech Update

We finally get two days in a row of the same move but unfortunately it is down.  This is not completely surprising as it is completely reasonable that the sharp move higher in the market needs to pause and/or retrench a little.  Of course, the tension and worry will be whether or not this is […]

April 29th Biotech Update

Yesterday was a retracement day and seemed almost like a rotation out of what was working (biotech) into lagging sectors (banking).  Given the strength in the sector it should be able to handle the retracement before continuing the move higher.  The only worry is the XBI compared to the IBB.  The IBB had made new […]

March 3rd Biotech Update

I sure hope that yesterday was not the best that the bulls could do.  We need that bounce to continue for a couple of days and I suspect that will be the case.  There remains a window of opportunity to rally before we start seeing school and work closures in the US, which I believe […]

February 7th Biotech Update

The sector seems to be in an odd spot. Fundamentals look fine and the trading is not awful but the chart looks precarious. We might have 3 lower highs and 3 lower lows right now. It almost looks like a broadening top but that usually sees higher highs as well as lower lowers. The chart […]

February 5 Biotech Update

So the sell off last week seemed like the market looking for news to sell off on and today it seems the opposite. Corona virus fears continue to decline and we see a market rally and even oil is rallying today. I think market expectations are now that the epidemic will continue to grow in […]

January 17 Biotech Update

I suspect that the sector is setting up for a run at $100 on the XBI if not breaking above it. People expecting a JPM selloff on the lack of news (me included) were wrong and now the fear of missing out (FOMO) of a breakout to new highs might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The […]