The sector appears to have shrugged off (relatively speaking as to what could have happened) the recent Trump noise on the industry and likely for good reason. It is only a matter of time before the market learns that the President-elect is likely a lot more bark than bite and in the case of the […]
January 9 Biotech Update
I am getting ready to head out to JPM but I wanted to have a quick JPM note this morning. In general, the news has been a little slow as compared to expectations but certainly bullish. I will highlight a couple of the more important stories. 1. We have almost $6B in deals in one […]
January 5 Biotech Update
News is starting to pick up as we approach JPM. This should continue through the weekend. There has not really been anything dramatic today as these early birds tend to be companies that would be overwhelmed by the bigger announcements expected closer to JPM. All in all, the net-net of news this morning has been […]
January 4 Biotech Update
The year continues at two for two with another trial failure but so far the market is shrugging it off. It is not surprising as expectations build for JPM. Usually the Monday of JPM is filled with news but it has been creeping forward a little as some companies are releasing news the week before […]
November 14 Biotech Update
And we continue with the Trump effect in the sector. As I noted before this is going to be a longer term tailwind despite what people argue about the potential transitory nature. Yes, we will not go straight up and yes it is not 100% positive forever but this is a sector that has grossly […]
November 2 Biotech Update
Any selling we see today cannot really be blamed on sentiment or the elections as we had our first day (in my opinion) of fundamentally bad earnings. Up to this point, it seems that the earnings were in-line to better than expectations but certainly not perfect. This is not the case for the big earnings […]
October 25 Biotech Update
Earnings have started and so far nothing great but nothing horrible. In fact there were some notable misses but we may be at the point that misses will rally stocks given how low expectations have fallen. So not only do we need to pay attention to what the earnings say about the fundamentals of the […]
October 19 Biotech Update
There is really nothing to talk about today with a lack of news. I suspect we will be weak into the final debate and stretch run of the campaign. Recent polls are showing the potential of a wave election which would at the very least give the democrats the Senate with an increasing chance of […]
October 10 Biotech Update
It is a solid positive reaction to ESMO across the sector (with some notable exceptions). While there are number of potential topics, I want to focus on one as it has very broad implications that we need to watch not just in the near term but longer term. 1. BMY front line data were an […]
October 4 Biotech Update
Today is certainly a better start. It seems that the sector is trading to a certain extent on macro issues with the DB concerns leading to risk on versus risk off action. The sector will always be a victim to large risk off moves, so if the DB situation resolves I would not be surprised […]
September 28 Biotech Update
The sector continues to do well but there seems to be a bifurcation occurring where the SMID are outperforming the large caps. Usually when investors come back into a sector they start higher on the capital scale as those are typically cash flow positive, reasonable valuations, and a safer way to increase exposure. This does […]
September 23 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be quieting down a little and perhaps a little bit of consolidation of the recent move is in the cards. All in all, however, it seems like a productive week for the sector and confirms my base case that the likely path moving forward is higher (with the obvious pullbacks sprinkle […]
September 13 Biotech Update
I was a little late heading into the office this morning and had not been following the news and so I was a little surprised to see the market down so much. This is oddly schizophrenic on really little news. Down big on Friday on a rate hike tantrum (a little dramatic but understandable). Up […]
August 22 Biotech Update
The sector is doing well on the consummation of the long courtship of MDVN. I will be back with my commentary this week but am still not quite back to the usual routine. The kids still do not have school, so these will be shorter than usual this week but next week when everything is […]
August 8 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be struggling a little but it would not be stunning to see some underperformance and consolidation after the recent run. We continue to get earnings headlines but the vast majority of sector moving calls and earnings are passed. 1. EPZM reported earnings and there is nothing new in it, so it […]
August 5 Biotech Update
I was not going to write today but snuck into office with my kids in tow for a quick note on BMY. 1. This was a major surprise and critically important for BMY. ISI wrote that they believed the first line NSCLC market was $7B-$8B of the $12B 2021 opdivo estimates. That is pure speculation […]
August 3 Biotech Update
It is more of the same but we had a nice late day rumor yesterday that triggered a reversal higher. Outside of that rumor not much in the way of news. While these rumors tend to be a nice source of intraday moves, these are generally not sustainable as even if they are true, the […]
July 14 Biotech Update
The market continues to ramp higher but about halfway through yesterday the bottom fell out of the biotech sector and it has been struggling ever since despite the strength in the broader markets. It is not immediately clear what was the cause (seems temporally to correlate with Andrew Left noting that he is short VRX […]
June 10 Biotech Update
We are having a decent pullback yesterday and this morning. Many are still frustrated with the sector and are getting the feeling of “here we go again” but pullbacks happen in bull markets. This is not to say that we are in the midst of a new bio-bull market but that we should not run […]
June 6 Biotech Update
It’s the Monday after ASCO started and it is time to declare the winners and losers. Even when we have definitive data this is often a less than precise undertaking and this is especially the case this year when the data are early and incremental. So I will spend today talking about why the consensus […]
