I think we are clearly in the range given the news flow and the market reaction. It is not necessarily bad but I think one has to play the range until shown otherwise. This has been a pretty long time in the range and so the break out (up or down) should be pretty clear […]
December 8th Biotech Update
It was basically a flat day but certainly some movers beneath the surface. I think the relatively flat market did not reflect the large moves in some of the news. We seem to be ending the year with news and even more news. While not all of it has been good, there is enough good […]
December 2nd Biotech Update
We remain in a range, although there certainly seems to be a pattern with the larger caps outperforming. As I have noted many times, I suspect that if generalists are going to enter the sector they will first do it through the large caps and then down the capital structure to SMID. We need generalists […]
September 29th Biotech Update
As much as we had a good day early this week, the market looks really tenuous. I have seen some statistics about position that look quite bullish (i.e. investors are extremely under-invested) but I have also seen some statistics that show the interest rates have move very fast and the market needs to catch up […]
August 8th Biotech Update
A good start to the week and it should continue the momentum for the sector. While I think we still can move on the news, it is also the case that the sector has had a nice run recently. Nothing goes up (or down forever) and the longer the run, the better the news has […]
July 29th Biotech Update
I have had family in town that has changed my schedule and so it has been slow on the updates this week. There is growing optimism in the sector and I suspect that we could outperform the rest of the year. Maybe I am crazy but as long as the fundamentals do not crash in […]
May 10th Biotech Update
This should be it. The sector has been oversold and very stretched to the downside and was due for a bounce. Today we finally see some significant M&A and this should trigger a nice multi-day rally. If this deal cannot move the sector in a meaningful way when it is oversold then I do not […]
May 3rd Biotech Update
So we had a late day rally yesterday and I am not sure what to think about it. I sort of prefer the weak Monday and gap down Tuesday morning to reverse green sort of setups. It was nice to see the sector rally on what was a group of bad news but with […]
April 13th Biotech Update
We had a chance to build some nice momentum and yet we failed once again. To be fair the broader markets have not been that conducive so it is not as if this is a sector specific move but it is yet another disappointment in a long line of disappointments. The sector can still save […]
March 25th Biotech Update
Not much news this morning. The world is still here and while the stalemate continues in the Ukraine the lack of escalation probably keeps the market calm. There is still tremendous violence ongoing but at this point the market seems to have priced in the stalemate. I still think the stalemate breaks at some point […]
March 17th Biotech Update
The stalemate in Ukraine likely remains good for the market. I am not convinced that the stalemate can last for months but it is more likely a week or two hiatus. As long as it looks like escalation is not happening or at risk of happening then the market looks the other way. Of course, […]
March 16th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
Monday afternoon felt a little like the market was really setting up for another big leg down but since then it seems to have settled a little. This is the market we are going to be stuck with as Monday it looked almost as if China was going to start providing more aid to Russia […]
February 17th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
We are getting more of the same this morning with general weakness but some small pockets of outperformance. I suspect that if the broader market continues to weaken those pockets of strength will be less green and more not red as the general market. Today seems like the previous days only amplified to a certain […]
February 10th Biotech Update
The sector had been doing well but the inflation data this morning was worse than expected both year on year and month on month. This increases rate increase expectations and higher rates has been lowering the sector. At some point, however, one has to think that rate increases would be priced into the market. How […]
January 24th Biotech Update
Well, we have seen this show way too many times. The sector is absolutely bidless and while there does not seem to be panic per se there is an absolute indifference to the selling. To me it just looks like no interest whatsoever to buy the sector and no one remains in size that can […]
January 10th Biotech Update
Well, if you thought JPM 2021 was a disappointment you had not seen JPM 2022. While there can still be individual stock news I think the lack of any significant deals means that M&A is not going to be a theme in this conference. I guess the one advantage we have this year is that […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
2021 is finally over and 2022 enters with hopes of a better year but we all are probably scarred from the year that was 2021. JPM is coming and that brings with it hopes of M&A, positive guidance, and perhaps positive data. Last year it was not great and that ended up being a signal […]
December 13th Biotech Update
We finally got a merger Monday and this should boost the sector. So far the sector is doing well in a generally bad market environment and hope this continues. There are certainly some non-sector related risks to the market that would hit biotech but as long as they remain muted, we should be able to […]
December 8th Biotech Update
We finally had our bounce start but yesterday has to be the start. If we end up giving it back today that is not a good sign. Starting the morning red is OK but we need to close green and build on the momentum that was started yesterday. There is no reason that the bounce […]
December 6th Biotech Update
We started lower this morning which is not that bad. I think if we rallied off the start then we likely give it up but a dip to flush out the frustrated traders (and let us be honest that is all of us at this point) might clear the deck for a really rally later […]
