July 22nd Biotech Update

I am back and it is going to take a little bit of time for me to catch up and get a sense of what the sector has been doing.  It seems like I took vacation at the right time as I did not have to see the downtrend that appears to have developed.  When […]

July 9th Biotech Update

I would have thought the sector would have provided us with a more clear signal as to its next move but I look at the sector right now and see both upside and downside potential.   Clearly we broke below the recent lows and potentially ruined a clear uptrend but if we are able to set […]

June 14th Biotech Update

Well, we do not have any buyouts but there is some partnership news.  I am not sure that will be enough to juice the sector but it is likely enough to continue the momentum to the $140/$141 level in the XBI.  Assuming we make it there, there should be some sort of pause/pullback to reset […]

May 27th Biotech Update

I think this is going to sound like a broken record given the lack of news but I do think we should have some more after (during) ASCO next week (and the adu PDUFA) but until then we likely have not much as we are likely entering the summer doldrums.  In the summer news and […]

May 19th Biotech Update

We do not have a ton of news but it has picked up a little this week, which is nice.  It is also nice that the news has generally been positive (although not universally so).  It is nice to see that the positive news is being treated as such (having positive effects on stock prices) […]

May 13th Biotech Update

The sector has been doing pretty well the past couple of days and that is in light of the broader market being pretty bad.  That could be good sign and ideally we need to see that outperformance to continue on days in which the broader market is green.  Today could be the day to test […]

May 6th Biotech Update

Well, yesterday starting really good with PFE finally getting some love and the sector on decent footing but it certainly did not end well.  We are now at the recent lows with odds likely favoring breaking the lows and triggering another leg lower.  In some ways this is fundamentally and sentiment driven.  As I noted […]

May 5th Biotech Update

I guess that is my bad for writing on a Tuesday when I usually do not write.  The sector and market did not seem to like that at all, so my bad.  In all seriousness, that was certainly not a good day but actually might be good.  We now have a clear upside resistance level […]

May 4th Biotech Update

I usually do not have time to write on Tuesday but wanted to put out a quick note.  In general, we are still in a decision area with the sector.  We have broken the clear downtrend but are not out of the woods and have certainly not established a clear uptrend.  In any case, I […]

May 3rd Biotech Update

Have we broken the downtrend?  We are certainly in a much better position than before.  We have not made a lower low and we are above what was the previous lower high.  In other words, the clear downtrend is no longer that clear.  We have not established a new uptrend but we are in the […]

April 26th Biotech Update

An OK start to the week in terms of being green.  It looks like we have broken the lower high trends and it would be great to get confirmation of that this week and even make a push at $140 in the XBI.  I know it is easy to dump on the sector but honestly […]

April 19th Biotech Update

We remain in the same spot with the sector.  It has not really given us the clear signal but we really need to break above that $140 level to ensure that we have not made a clear lower high.  There is also another potential higher low being setup around $135.66 or so.  I am not […]

April 16th Biotech Update

Today is modestly important not that we are going to break above an important range or below one but continued momentum higher is sort of key.  We have had a good week so do far but if we stall at these levels it really looks like a clear trend line lower where yesterday has the […]

April 14th Biotech Update

I will try and make this quick today as we have strong storms and who knows if power will hold out.  Luckily there is not a ton of news but that does not mean we are not at an important point.  I am a little torn in how to see the sector.  We bounced and […]

April 8th Biotech Update

I spent some time this morning looking for something interesting to talk about and there really is not much.  The sector remains in a sort of zone of indecision and that has not changed.  We were a little closer to the downside level with some negative sentiment but we are higher today and I am […]

April 7th Biotech Update

We remain mired in the middle with nothing really to signal the ultimate resolution of this situation. I would simply remain focused on the fundamentals of companies and simply be aware that the broader sector will at some point clarify the next move.  I would be ready for a move higher or lower as I […]

April 5th Biotech Update

While it is possible that this week is decision week for the sector, I am not convinced that it has to be.  There is room above and below for it to tread water and not signal its next big move.  I see the $150 and $125 levels as the key ones to watch and the […]

March 31st Biotech Update

We are in an interesting spot.  Yesterday started bad but we reversed higher and that continued today.  It feels better with this bounce having a nice follow through.  What is interesting is that we made a lower low despite the reversal., so in reality we seem to have established a downtrend even though we had […]

March 24th Biotech Update

You probably got the sense that I was leaning towards the sector eventually signaling a new trend higher at some point.  Yesterday did not provide any comfort of confirmation of that lean.  I would not argue that yesterday indicates that we are going to break into new lows but it definitely raises that possibility.  It […]

March 11th Biotech (and Energy) Update

I think we are clearly in what sort of looks like a bottoming process but one that seems like it will be quite messy.  The sector continues to be unable to generate consistently strong days but at least yesterday ended up not being a disaster.  While continuation would have been great, it did not breakdown […]