November 30th Biotech Update

Are we setting up for the Santa rally?  It would be a nice way to end the year and perhaps kick off early next year with a strong JPM.  I think we are getting closer to the end of the rate hike cycle and if we think the market is typically 6 months ahead then […]

November 22nd Biotech Update

Not the greatest start to the week but I have a hard time reading too much into this week’s trading.  I did notice that large caps outperformed SMID and that has been my theme for a little bit.  I still think investors come back into biotech first through large caps and in some ways the […]

March 30th Biotech Update

The sector has had a good start to the week but we are not getting the big positive news that could really amp the move higher.  As I noted the idea scenario would be this positive momentum to coincide with some sector meaningful positive news but not yet.  This is not to say it is […]

March 17th Biotech Update

The stalemate in Ukraine likely remains good for the market.  I am not convinced that the stalemate can last for months but it is more likely a week or two hiatus.  As long as it looks like escalation is not happening or at risk of happening then the market looks the other way.  Of course, […]

December 21st Biotech Update

The sector is really trying to confuse me.  I thought the least likely scenario was going to be a green day for the sector and a red day for the market and the second least likely would be a red day for the sector and green for the market.  It seemed to me that they […]

August 4th Biotech Update

I have to say yesterday was pretty disappointing.  We finally get some M&A and while it is not massive it is in a hot therapeutic modality and the sector trades lower.  One would have thought that would have been enough to at least get a little rally if not something more meaningful.  Perhaps it is […]

February 25th Biotech Update

We got what we needed to start a bounce in the sector but it has to be followed through today otherwise it is simply a bounce that reset oversold conditions, which allows for more downside.  We are at support levels that should be good enough to generate a little bounce (at least), so I lean […]

November 2nd Biotech Update

This is the literal calm before the storm.  The election is tomorrow and the adu AdCom is Friday.  Plus, we still have a number earnings coming this week as well.  Even with all of that news the week starts off with basically nothing that meaningful so there is not much to say.  That is not […]

August 17th Biotech Update

Hopefully, it was not a sign that my week starting with stepping barefoot into a pile of what I knew was either dog vomit or diarrhea and then having to figure out which it was and then clean it up.  It did not get any better with TD Ameritrade being down.  So how the market […]

July 29th Biotech Update

It has been a little while but I am back and it seems like I have not missed a ton of news despite it being earning season.  The sector has more or less chugged along but seems a little heavy at this point.  It is not clear to me whether it is the sector or […]

May 26th Biotech Update

The week is off to an optimistic start and it is not clear to me the exact reason.  Perhaps it is more optimism about vaccines or a belief (hope) that the re-opening will not lead to a new spike in cases.  We do know that there seems to have been a massive increase in retail […]

April 29th Biotech Update

Yesterday was a retracement day and seemed almost like a rotation out of what was working (biotech) into lagging sectors (banking).  Given the strength in the sector it should be able to handle the retracement before continuing the move higher.  The only worry is the XBI compared to the IBB.  The IBB had made new […]

April 27th Biotech Update

A new week and it is off to a good start.  One debate I often have with myself is whether or not the bottom is in.  It is an important question but really unknowable at this point.  If HCQ or remdisivr or some other drug comes out as a reasonable treatment for COVID between now […]

December 10 Biotech Update

It seems like the sector might breakout and run yesterday morning but it came back to reality in the afternoon. While it would have been nice to see a run, the pullback does not change the trend. Perhaps we will now see a little weakness and pullback to higher lows (as had been the case) […]

May 3 Biotech Update

The sector really is trading without a clear trend. Nothing that has happened this week has created a new trend but the range is narrowing, so I expect next week to provide more clarity as to the next move in the sector. A break below the lows this week likely triggers another leg lower otherwise […]

February 21 Biotech Update

Resistance is acting like resistance. It looked early that we might be peaking above it but clearly that is not the case. These sort of false breakouts (and breakdowns) are killers in range bound markets as it can get one to trade too early. My mantra in these scenarios is that the sector will be […]

October 25 Biotech Update

Yesterday was brutal and there is really little to say about it as we are clearly in the middle of a massive correction if not outright bear market. I suspect that we are closer to the end than the beginning but that does not mean we could not see another 10% lower from these levels […]

March 12 Biotech Update

An interesting start to the week thanks to the weekend news. I thought there would be a little more price action after the news but it is still early and perhaps this just signals how far PCSK9 has moved from investor interest. In any case, there are some interesting pin actions from the news. 1. […]

January 30 Biotech Update

The sector remains strong. The market has weakened a little but the sector was still holding on. If the broader market weakness continues, it will eventually drag down the sector but that has not happened yet. Of course, a bit of a pullback is well overdue and will happen eventually but the trigger and timing […]