November 4th Biotech Update

The sector remains volatile even as it seems to have emerged from the recent depression in the sector.  There will be periods of increase volatility and pullbacks but I still think we have emerged from the doldrums and the general movement going forward will be higher even if we do have some periods of negative […]

October 8th Biotech Update

Biotech sentiment is cautiously constructive: the XBI is up about 15% year-to-date which is outpacing the broader health sector.  While we have seen deals, the next stage would be the IPO window creaking open again—2025 has logged ~165 U.S. IPOs across sectors and fresh biopharma filings like BillionToOne point to improving risk appetite, even if […]

July 22nd Biotech Update

There has been a lot of movement in the market, but I would rather focus on the bigger picture and news that could really have larger implications.  I think M&A has picked up and will continue to be a story but that has not been the news recently.   SRPT has been the most dramatic […]

June 18th Biotech Update

I feel worried saying this but the sector is doing well at least when one looks at the chart.  This certainly does not mean that the headwinds and concerns are suddenly going away but bull markets are built on climbing a wall of worries and there are a lot of worries that could be climbed […]

June 16 Biotech Update

Despite all of the news in the market recently, we actually seem to be in a good place (at least as I look at the chart).  If you take a step back, we are around 20% higher since the panic lows and there can be what looks like trend higher.  There are higher highs and […]

April 21st Biotech Update

It has been a little wild in the sector in terms of news (MFN pricing executive order) but if you take a step back and look at the chart, it does not look nearly as bad as it sounded when the announcement happened.  Just imagine that you know nothing of the news and look at […]

March 20th Biotech Update

Are we bottoming and setting up a nice long base from which to start a bull market?  Perhaps.  It seems like investors are getting used to the uncertainty to an extend even if there has not been a lot that has been firmly resolved.  There has not been a government shut down.  RFK JR. has […]

January 28th Biotech Update

There has been some interesting news outside of the sector with a big hit to big tech that questions all of the massive investment in AI.  While a complete market collapse would not be good for the sector, I think an ignition of some risk into the Magnificent 7 stocks that leads to a decreased […]

January 14th Biotech Update

I am a little torn about the trading yesterday.  On the one hand, it looks like a washout low with a reversal, which is really good.  On the other hand, if we cannot continue that momentum and move significantly higher that might only be a small respite for another move lower later this month.  Remember […]

November 7th Biotech Update

We got a clear result from the election and it seems clear (at least initially) that the market approves.  I would not say that there is a clear breakout for the sector but we are at the area where one can start thinking that it is breaking out.  I still think RFK could be an […]

July 2nd Biotech Update

It was a good start to yesterday morning but we got weaker as the day went on.  I still think the sector is not in a bad position but I do not like to see the strength in the morning and weakness as the day went on.  It is only one day and the volume […]

June 26th Biotech Update

I should leave more often as the sector has done OK in my absence.  For good or ill, I am back and hopefully we can keep this strength and establish a more clear trend to the upside.  I think there is more work to be done but we are at least in a position in […]

May 10th Biotech Update

Not the best of weeks but also not the worst of weeks.  It would have been ideal to get some momentum to the upside but grinding volume at this level is not awful for the longer term.  Of course, if the next move is significantly lower then this ends up being a level of resistance […]

May 3rd Biotech Update

Well, the Fed was not a disaster for the sector and in many ways it worked out well (at least on Fed day).  This has generally been a decent week for the sector and while part of that is related to the fundamentals, I still think we are tied to interest rates and the lack […]

March 13th Biotech Update

Well, we are no longer hanging at the higher levels and my original thought that we would test the upper end of the previous range was correct.  We are getting close and perhaps the intraday low the other day was the test, but we are pretty close.  It is probably a reasonable time to be […]

March 1st Biotech Update

It has been a good week, but it has also been quite a quick run.  The recent weakness is not necessarily bad if we successfully back test the breakout.  The $94-$95 level on the XBI was the upper end of the range and was resistance.  We clearly busted above that level this week, but it […]

February 20th Biotech Update

We are very close to breaking out on the XBI.  One more very strong day or a couple days of strength would be enough.  I think the charts are not that overbought and so we have a decent chance to sustain the breakout but one could also look at the chart and see a clear […]

November 6th Biotech Update

Well, that was quite the week and end to the week.  Why the sudden strong end to the week on top of a good week?  The economy was weaker than expected.  We are not close to a recession, but the data came in weaker than expected, which means rates could have peaked and the rising […]

September 27th Biotech Update

Yesterday was a better day.  The market was weak and yet the sector outperformed.  That is quite the rare occasion.  It had been such a brutal month, there was bound to be a day in which the selling eased.  There was some news that could have driven the outperformance but was that simply an excuse […]