August 3rd Biotech Update

We started the week at the bottom of the range and within three days we are at the top of the range.  I find days like this a little tough to judge.  Big positive moves like this make it feel like there is very strong momentum but when they smack against the top of a […]

August 1st Biotech Update

  We have some more earnings this week but the lack of exciting launches to track make them a little less exciting.  Of course, there could be some unexpected misses (see below) but I generally expect earnings to be more or less in than with expectations.  The sector has been essentially rangebound the entire month […]

January 11th Biotech Update

I am a little surprised with the reversal yesterday.  The lack of M&A and the news not being that great was setting the sector up to break to new lows.  The fact that we were able to reverse is quite encouraging.  Of course, we have all seen this picture before and we have routinely been […]

January 7th Biotech Update

We should be in the calm before the storm as I do not see a company releasing news today.  If you were going to announce something to get eyeballs before the conference then you more likely PRed earlier in the week.  Releasing something Friday afternoon (outside of something bad to bury the news) does not […]

January 6th Biotech Update

The sector is not having a good start to the year.  I saw someone post a chart that compared the performance of the XBI pre-JPM to how it perform during and after JPM.  It was really not a strong relationship but in the years where the XBI was red pre-JPM it tended to do poorly […]

January 3rd Biotech Update

2021 is finally over and 2022 enters with hopes of a better year but we all are probably scarred from the year that was 2021.  JPM is coming and that brings with it hopes of M&A, positive guidance, and perhaps positive data.  Last year it was not great and that ended up being a signal […]

November 4th Biotech Update

The sector has certainly strung a couple of good days together and it is probably in overbought territory as we approach the upper end of this long term range.  The top of the range has been around the $137-$142 level and that seems like a pretty large ran for a top. Ideally we would want […]

October 13th Biotech Update

Well, this week is not a disaster and that is positive.  We have not built any momentum to the upside but we also do not seem on the verge of breaking down.  We are inching closer to a seasonally positive period for the sector and so treading water and forming a base is not bad.  […]

September 24th Biotech Update

It really feels like the sector wants to continue the trend higher but the broader market is not going to let it.  I think if the broader market sentiment were neutral, then the sector would be moving higher.  I do not think the sector has a chance to move higher in the midst of a […]

June 15th Biotech Update

It looked like we could have gotten some momentum but it was not quite able to continue.  It was not stock specific but pretty broad based.  It is not as if it was a particularly bad day but that momentum that was building that I thought could get us to the $140-1 level on the […]

May 19th Biotech Update

We do not have a ton of news but it has picked up a little this week, which is nice.  It is also nice that the news has generally been positive (although not universally so).  It is nice to see that the positive news is being treated as such (having positive effects on stock prices) […]

May 6th Biotech Update

Well, yesterday starting really good with PFE finally getting some love and the sector on decent footing but it certainly did not end well.  We are now at the recent lows with odds likely favoring breaking the lows and triggering another leg lower.  In some ways this is fundamentally and sentiment driven.  As I noted […]

March 19th Biotech (and Energy) Update

Yesterday clearly did not instill a ton of confidence.  That being said we did not break any lows so the path of setting a higher low and establishing a new move higher is still possible.  The difference is that we are now closer to taking out the lows, which is not a comfortable position (especially […]

March 8th Biotech Update

I am not sure if the sector is trading on fundamentals anymore.  I do not mean that it is over- or under- valued but that the trading has been so extreme that I am not sure news matters.  Of course, as we attempt to rather this week starts with no M&A and a negative trial […]

January 13th Biotech Update

So I think JPM is a complete failure in terms of news.  It is obviously a dud in terms of M&A.  I do not remember the last time we had a JPM with zero mergers. There have been some with minor deals but it has been awhile since there have not been any.  This actually […]

January 8th Biotech Update

So the sector was doing well yesterday in the lead up to JPM and perhaps we get some early news today but the news yesterday was certainly not a good start and that might end up weighing on the sector (at least in the morning).  Hopefully this is not a signal as to the type […]

November 9th Biotech Update

We do not have merger Monday, so I suspect the market will be disappointed.  I joke of course as this is going to be a massive relief rally on the news of the PFE vaccine.  While there will certainly be a rally that raises almost everyone, there will likely be rotations out of COVID treatment […]

October 26th Biotech Update

A mixed start to the week with the broader market and sector lower on the open.  Nothing dramatic on either and nothing really meaningful in news flow, so a sort of drifting would not be unexpected.  I think it is safe to say that we are in the calm before the storm with earnings really […]