August 6th Biotech Update

The sector came close to getting above recent highs but seemed to touch them and then pullback.  It was not necessarily a bad day for the sector but also did not quite break the potential downtrend.  There seems to be some positive news last night and this morning, so perhaps that will be enough to […]

July 8th Biotech (and MLP) Update

We are getting some news as the week progresses but it still remains a little slow on the news.  I suspect that this continues as we have the start of earning season at the end of the month and so unless there is really noteworthy news companies are going to likely wait until earnings to […]

July 2nd Biotech Update

The news seems to have dried up as we head into the long weekend.  We had “positive” jobs data that seems to be sparking a rally.  While the data are good, it is also on the back of the expanded epidemic so it seems a little unsustainable as there have been repeated closings in the […]

June 26th Biotech Update

The sector remains strong with a green day yesterday as well as a relative outperformance to the broader market.  I guess COVID will not matter until it does but I remain worried that it is only a matter of time before case growth (and like deaths) become too high to ignore.  This morning we seem […]

June 22nd Biotech Update

The sector is trying to break out of its range to the upside.  Not only did it trade above the range on Friday but close above it.  The ultimate confirmation would be a run above the range and then come back and test of the old resistance for support.  So at this point I see […]

June 8th Biotech Update

An interesting start to the week in terms of news at least.  The sector remains mired in its range, which with the news over the weekend seems a little surprising.  My thought Sunday was that we would remain in the range but make a move to the higher end of the range as the news […]

May 26th Biotech Update

The week is off to an optimistic start and it is not clear to me the exact reason.  Perhaps it is more optimism about vaccines or a belief (hope) that the re-opening will not lead to a new spike in cases.  We do know that there seems to have been a massive increase in retail […]

May 15th Biotech Update

It seems a fight/indecision in the sector right now.  It remains right at the breakout level unable to move higher to confirm the breakout or move lower to reinforce the level as resistance.  It still seems to be doing modestly better than the broader markets but there seems clear indecision at this level and at […]

May 7th Biotech Update

Earnings continue and the themes are basically the same.  They are generally good if not better than expectations but they remain cautious for the rest of the year. The sector is certainly rebounding from the selling late last week but there seems to be this odd late day selling despite strength during most of the […]

February 14th Biotech Update

You remember how I believed that the sector was at a decision point and was unlikely to hang out close to the recent highs without breaking out or breaking down? Yes, I remember too and of course that is exactly what seems to have happened. While I remain surprised this happened, it does not change […]

January 29 Biotech Update

The sector and market seem to be trying to make a decision. There was a decent selloff and now the bounce. Is the bounce just resetting the short term oversold conditions for another leg lower or has the selloff provided the dip that the longer term trend higher needed. I am not sure either way […]

January 22 Biotech Update

I think the trading context for the near term is basically set. We have a potential macro scare with the Wuhan coronavirus, earnings, and the sector trading just below breakout levels. Lurking in the background is the democratic primaries, which could influence trading (Sanders and Warren bad for biotech, others good for biotech—or that is […]

December 16 Biotech Update

We have a decent news morning but I want to focus on three and can do so with a Western theme: the good, the bad, and the ugly. 1. The good: Clearly this is AMRN. We got an early Christmas present with an expanded label. They did not get the primary prevention but also seemed […]

December 13 Biotech Update

There is some news today so I will do a quick Friday note. 1. ATNX had their data and it showed a statistically significant OS improvement. We are getting a little sell the news for a couple of reasons. First, the stock had a good run into these data. Second, the data are not perfect. […]

December 3rd Biotech Update

The broader market backdrop is not nearly as positive with some China fears creeping into the market but the sector remains strong. I still think the stock reactions to ASH data this weekend will go a long way in signaling expectations and whether they have become extended. So for me I will be watching not […]

November 6 Biotech Update

We remain in what seems like the trend. Day three of the pullbacks tends to be when we restart the move higher but yesterday ended marginally green instead of red so it is not completely predictable. In any case, we are getting close to what should be the higher low and expect a reversal today […]

September 25th Biotech Update

I sound like a repeating record but the news have been pretty slow. I thought it was possible that the sector would break out higher but clearly that was not the case. It will be interesting to see how we respond today as we are now closer to some support. The market honestly seems a […]

September 24 Biotech Update

News remains slow but the macro remains in the background. There is a chance that China trade tensions ease (only before rising again) and Iran is fading into the memory (but this is not over yet). Unfortunately, the market is rallying a little but the sector seems stuck in the mud. It is a little […]

September 17 Biotech Update

So I was thinking that any response to the attacks on Saudi Arabia would happen sooner rather than later but I am no longer convinced that remains the case.  Clearly Saudi Arabia was taken by surprise and so it needs to tighten its defenses before escalating the situation (if they choose to escalate).  A kinetic […]