The sector is in an odd position. We sort of made a higher high when we got to the $90 level, which would generally be good but we ended that day way off the highs and then followed up with a weak day. Generally, I would look at that as a failed breakout and a […]
May 15th Biotech Update
A strong start to the week, which is good as there is not a ton of news to be driving the move. We did end the week with some good news but it is a relatively quiet start and the move higher bodes well. I often like to see how the sector trades without news […]
May 11th Biotech Update
Can we make a little run to the $90 level on the XBI? We got some nice momentum and that seems a reasonable spot for a pause that refreshes but it has been a pretty strong move higher that could pause at any point. May has been a very strong month and we are close […]
April 14th Biotech Update
A sleepy week sort of flipped in one day with both drama and action. We have pushed right up to the $80 level in the XBI which could act as some resistance but it will be interesting to see if the strength of yesterday can push through. From the bullish perspective, the ideal scenario would […]
April 10th Biotech Update
Treading water? While it might not seem like it, the sector could be bouncing around support levels and perhaps even setting up a new range between $75 and $78. If that looks like a pretty tight range to you, I think you are right and the upper end might be closer to $80 and the […]
March 17th Biotech Update
Volatility continues as questions around banks both at home and abroad remain. The actions to support a number of banks has also been met with a lukewarm response. There were initially a positive reaction but that has seen tapered off as questions remain both on the individual banks, the banking system, the economy, and the […]
March 1st Biotech (and Energy) Update
Well, well, well. A lot happened in the neuro space where there was concerns that it would become significantly more restrictive but I think that is off the table. Is the sector in a better place? I think so as there are a set of broader overhangs that I think it has to work through. […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
It is a New Year and two paths diverge in the sector. One would be an unprecedented third year in a row of decline and the second would be the first up year after back to back declines. I am going to use the next couple days to delineate my predictions for 2023. LLY […]
December 29th Biotech Update (Prediction reviews)
We end the year hopefully on an up note but nothing has really changed about the sector. We are range bound and a drifting in the range. The length of time spent in this range really makes it into really strong support or resistance for the move. It makes me think that when we do […]
December 28th Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week but we remain in a range and rangebound. We are back at the bottom of that range and I do not see anything in the sector that should break us out one way or another. If anything, I think we start to drift a little higher as we […]
November 14th Biotech Update
We had a nice little rally to end the week and while I would like to say it was related to strong fundamentals, I think it was more macro related. It certainly helped that the sector has generally had a strong earnings season (as compared to something like tech) but I suspect that the market […]
August 3rd Biotech Update
We started the week at the bottom of the range and within three days we are at the top of the range. I find days like this a little tough to judge. Big positive moves like this make it feel like there is very strong momentum but when they smack against the top of a […]
August 1st Biotech Update
We have some more earnings this week but the lack of exciting launches to track make them a little less exciting. Of course, there could be some unexpected misses (see below) but I generally expect earnings to be more or less in than with expectations. The sector has been essentially rangebound the entire month […]
January 11th Biotech Update
I am a little surprised with the reversal yesterday. The lack of M&A and the news not being that great was setting the sector up to break to new lows. The fact that we were able to reverse is quite encouraging. Of course, we have all seen this picture before and we have routinely been […]
January 7th Biotech Update
We should be in the calm before the storm as I do not see a company releasing news today. If you were going to announce something to get eyeballs before the conference then you more likely PRed earlier in the week. Releasing something Friday afternoon (outside of something bad to bury the news) does not […]
January 6th Biotech Update
The sector is not having a good start to the year. I saw someone post a chart that compared the performance of the XBI pre-JPM to how it perform during and after JPM. It was really not a strong relationship but in the years where the XBI was red pre-JPM it tended to do poorly […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
2021 is finally over and 2022 enters with hopes of a better year but we all are probably scarred from the year that was 2021. JPM is coming and that brings with it hopes of M&A, positive guidance, and perhaps positive data. Last year it was not great and that ended up being a signal […]
November 4th Biotech Update
The sector has certainly strung a couple of good days together and it is probably in overbought territory as we approach the upper end of this long term range. The top of the range has been around the $137-$142 level and that seems like a pretty large ran for a top. Ideally we would want […]
October 13th Biotech Update
Well, this week is not a disaster and that is positive. We have not built any momentum to the upside but we also do not seem on the verge of breaking down. We are inching closer to a seasonally positive period for the sector and so treading water and forming a base is not bad. […]
September 24th Biotech Update
It really feels like the sector wants to continue the trend higher but the broader market is not going to let it. I think if the broader market sentiment were neutral, then the sector would be moving higher. I do not think the sector has a chance to move higher in the midst of a […]
