It looks like the market is in dangerous territory but barring some exogenous shock (perhaps war between Iran and Israel as a potential source of shock), it seems more like a long period of sideways trading. All rallies are being sold but the market has enough oversold conditions that it would be difficult to have […]
April 30 Biotech Update
I have a lot to catch up on this week but wanted to start this morning with a couple of points. We are going to be getting a lot of additional earnings this week and so far they have been a mixed bag. There are a couple of interesting points that have come out so […]
April 24 Biotech Update
There is a decent amount of news flow today, which makes sense given that I have little time to cover it all this morning. I will try and go through the main news and touch on the most important aspects. Overall, it is not feeling like this earning season will be enough to change sentiment, […]
Dave Trading – May 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
April 23 Biotech Update
Sort of a quite start to the week but it is Monday of the first week of earnings, so it is not completely surprising to see a slow start. Obviously news will pick up with the earnings this week and perhaps we get some news outside of earnings but that remains TBD. 1. PRTA announced […]
April 20 Biotech Update
It is all about deal making it appears. We are getting closer to the earnings but deals are happening and might be happening or not happening as the case may be. The sector remains in an odd spot where large caps need deals but they also seem reluctant to make deals, although they do take […]
April 19 Biotech Update
We are starting to enter into earnings season, which will pick up next week. This will obviously be driving price action and there is usually a little more risk/volatility in 1Q earnings given the donut whole. This happens every year and you would expect that people would understand by now but every year there is […]
What Do You Need To Know Ahead of Next Week – SRPT CHMP Oral-Explanation
The CHMP meeting will take place next week April 23-26, we have no idea what day exactly is SRPT meeting, (Update 04/23: today the CHMP published this week agenda and SRPT Oral-Explanation set on 04/24 at 8:00 EST) . Usually after the Oral-Explanation the CHMP will ask the applicant representatives to step out from the […]
April 18 Biotech Update
We certainly seem to be moving away from the macro concerns to more sector specific issues, which is good to finally see. Of course, we are only one news cycle away from the macro driving the sector again but for now it seems like the sector survived and seems to be doing well. 1. BPMC […]
April 16 Biotech Update
We had the Syrian strikes over the weekend and for all intents and purposes it was typically political theater, which makes it enough for all sides to declare victory and move on. Perhaps there will be further consequences in the future but for now it is unlikely to be a significant macro worry for the […]
April 13 Biotech Update
It is the calm before the storm and I hopefully mean the calm before the AACR and earnings season. We are not quite out of the woods yet on Syria but I think we are close. UN inspectors should be arriving Saturday to test for chemical weapons and I doubt the US would launch an […]
April 12 Biotech Update
I am still convinced that the biggest macro risk for the market remains Syria. While there remains a chance that there is ultimately no attack, it seems that the past couple days has been a buildup of assets around Syria to allow for a more robust campaign. The final decision has not been made but […]
April 11 Biotech Update
Yesterday we were higher so obviously the whiplash has to continue with a red day today. The proximate cause of the weakness is concerns over Syria with Trump’s early morning taunt of Russia. I am not sure how it will play out during the day but this could keep a lid on the market and […]
April 10 Biotech Update
I am rushed this morning but I wanted to put out a quick note. The market is still volatile with the Cohen search yesterday sending the market down and the potential relaxation of the trade war sending the markets higher. I want to highlight a third macro issue and that is Syria. It is a […]
April 9 Biotech Update
I picked the wrong day to be out of the office. I thought the news will be in a lull before AACR picked up later this week. I guess I was wrong (on multiple fronts). The trading leading into AACR and during AACR will be key to the sector getting a more sustained move higher. […]
April 5 Biotech Update
The sector finally got its bounce and took some of the beaten down large caps with it. The sector (and market more generally) needs to follow through on this move and I do not mean a couple more hours but days of consolidation. A little back filling is fine but we cannot have another one […]
April 4 Biotech Update
The market is a volatility machine. We went so long without any real volatility and now all we have a whiplash moves. In periods of these, the goal is to trade less (at least for those with a longer term view). Let the valuations come to you and do not worry about the swings. It […]
April 2 Biotech Update
Thursday was not a bad follow through for the sector. I am still not convinced that we are out of the forest quite yet but we are at least further away from the abyss that was staring at the sector earlier last week. This week looks to be quiet to start as there is not […]
March 29 Biotech Update
It has certainly been an interesting couple of days. It looked like the sector was toast Tuesday and then we end up not getting the follow through selling yesterday. Despite all of the whiplash trading, there really has not been a lot of net movement higher or lower. What I do find a little interesting […]
March 27 Biotech Update
We seemingly got our bounce yesterday. It was touch and go a little in the afternoon but the market ended strong. While the trading might simply be a reflection of a higher volatility market, it did not feel like a healthy market. This still feels like we could be trading in the respite before another […]
