The market is going to bounce today and there are a number or proximate reasons. It could be the Stormy bottom. A dead cat, oversold bounce. A “maybe there will not be a trade war” bounce. Maybe a little of each or none of them. Bottoms on Fridays are a little rare, so the gap […]
March 23 Biotech Update
It seems like the market does not like 19th century economic policies, although I think it is likely more than simply the tariffs. The market has risen despite numerous political risks and now it seems to be more accurately reflecting the risks that arose the past 18 months. So it is not just the tariffs, […]
March 22 Biotech Update
Sector is down, although it is not clear if that is the sector or the prospects of a trade war with China that is bringing down the whole market. Between trade wars, the hawkish fed, and other potential macro issues, it seems that we might be entering into another period of macro trades affecting sector […]
March 21 Biotech Update
You would think the sector would have given us some more clarity by now but it still seems on the verge of breaking out or breaking down. The XBI could have put in a double top or is setting up a cup and handle pattern. Sentiment is not great as the reaction to Trump’s talk […]
Dave Trading – April 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
March 19 Biotech Update
The sector continues to struggle a little as we have a lack of leadership and the old leaders are faltering. This morning does not dissuade from this analysis but it is early and the broader market is weak as well. In any case, this week should provide enough data to know whether or not another […]
SRPT – Preparing For The CHMP Oral-Explanation
It was an intense week for SRPT’s investors, where the share price bounced from $74.36 (close Friday 03/09) to reach the high of $84.37 this week after the press release from Sarepta getting the green light from the FDA for Golo accelerated approval pathway (AA), and preparing to start the rolling NDA submission. Followed with […]
March 16 Biotech Update
The sector did not really have an encouraging day yesterday. Instead of broadening out the rally, the previous leaders slipped and nothing picked up the slack. There was a chance for the large caps to move the rally forward but they did not do so. Of course, no one should worry too much about a […]
March 15 Biotech Update
We might be seeing a little of the broadening rally that I talked about as the XBI seems to be modestly underperforming the IBB the past couple days. The move in the sector was mainly concentrated in the XBI (more heavily weighted towards the SMID) versus the IBB (more heavily weighted towards the large caps) […]
SRPT Was and Still The DMD Gene Therapy Leader
Today after the market close, Solid Biosciences (SLDB) announced it has received notification from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) that IGNITE DMD, its Phase I/II clinical trial for SGT-001 microdystrophin gene transfer in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), has been placed on Clinical Hold. The news sent SLDB share price down to $11.90 or […]
March 14 Biotech Update
The trend is your friend barring anything new in the sector. It seems like we at least want to test recent highs if not break through them, although the sector is at an odd position with both seemingly significantly over valued and undervalued stocks at the same time. This actually gives a nice tell for […]
Celldex: Quick Take
Celldex has struggled for a couple years now since its brain cancer drug Rintega failed in 2016. In Q2 this year, results from a pivotal study of the gpNMB antibody drug conjugate, Glembatumumab Vedotin, may change the company’s fate. Glembatumumab is being tested in women with triple negative breast cancer with >25% gpNMB expression. Patients […]
March 12 Biotech Update
An interesting start to the week thanks to the weekend news. I thought there would be a little more price action after the news but it is still early and perhaps this just signals how far PCSK9 has moved from investor interest. In any case, there are some interesting pin actions from the news. 1. […]
March 9 Biotech Update
The market is certainly providing a better backdrop and the sector is doing well in response. At this point the trend is your friend, although as I noted the other day there is some froth in certain portions of the market. 1. The big news coming is the REGN PCSK9 outcomes trial data this weekend. […]
March 8 Biotech Update
Some interesting news happening in the sector that might have some pin action more broadly. In general, it seems like the broader market is getting its legs, which is likely good for the sector as it has been doing well without additional M&A (which is very likely coming this year). 1. There was a healthcare […]
March 7 Biotech Update
Macro might be a little bit of a drag on the sector today but it seems to be doing well this week despite the lack of M&A and some macro headwinds. We at least go some interesting data today, which is the focus of this report. 1. ESPR announced positive data in the first of […]
March 5 Biotech Update
Not a ton of sector moving news to start the week but some big data sets. I will touch on one as it seems to have been an often discussed stock. 1. DERM missed. There seemed to be some worry that they would hit 3 of 4 on the endpoints but they missed them all. […]
March 2 Biotech Update
Between continued hawkish fed speak and a potential trade war, the market is going to have trouble getting its feet, which includes the sector. The market has been able to shake off a lot of issues the past year or so and perhaps this will be yet another wall of worry to climb but at […]
March 1 Biotech Update
Nothing that new to talk about but there is one missed opportunity that I want to highlight. It is a stock I talked about buying, thought about buying, almost bought, but did not buy. Despite missing on the move, it is still intriguing. 1. BGNE reported earnings last night. This stock has had a nice […]
February 28 Biotech Update
Last night was an interesting night (to put it kindly). One is more a stock reaction story and the other is an unknown-unknown story. Let us dive into these issues. 1. The easier of the two is TSRO. Revenues were basically in line with perhaps a small miss on Zejula (consensus of $46M versus actual […]
