Nothing that new to talk about but there is one missed opportunity that I want to highlight. It is a stock I talked about buying, thought about buying, almost bought, but did not buy. Despite missing on the move, it is still intriguing. 1. BGNE reported earnings last night. This stock has had a nice […]
February 28 Biotech Update
Last night was an interesting night (to put it kindly). One is more a stock reaction story and the other is an unknown-unknown story. Let us dive into these issues. 1. The easier of the two is TSRO. Revenues were basically in line with perhaps a small miss on Zejula (consensus of $46M versus actual […]
February 27 Biotech Update
So still a relatively slow news week. There are a couple of interesting tidbits that came out the past day that are useful to highlight, although nothing that would be particularly thesis changing. 1. The CLVS numbers appeas to be around consensus, although there were a couple of price target lowerings as the ramp seems […]
February 26 Biotech Update
A slow start to the week, although the sector does not seem bothered by the lack of news or M&A to start the week. There is some additional earnings this week but outside of potential data coming for a couple stocks, there does not seem a lot of imminent thesis changing news. 1. Today is […]
February 23 Biotech Update
The market is looking a little shaky. It is not as if the selling is sending it down but every single spike in the past couple days has been sold. I see that as a lot of overhead supply of stock for sale, which is not great. On the plus side, the support below these […]
February 22 Biotech Update
A little pick up in the news flow but clearly the sector has been tied to the broader market in the immediate term. The spike in interest rates caused by the Fed minutes took the market and the sector down. While the direct impact of raising interest rates on the sector is minimal, it does […]
February 21 Biotech Update
There is not a lot of news to start the day, so this can be relatively quick. In general, it seems that the market is slowly getting back to a lower volatility period, which is not necessarily bad. The sector was doing well when volatility was lower, so expectations should be that would continue in […]
February 20 Biotech Update
There is some news to start the week but mainly some minor partnerships and some data. Not the large scale M&A that people always seem to hope for after a long weekend. It remains to be see whether the market forgives this pause in the M&A or whether these more minor events are enough to […]
February 16 Biotech Update
There has been some interesting news to end the week. The market seems to have recovered its footing a little and this includes the sector. There is still some work to be done to repair the damage of the sell off but so far so good. 1. NBIX has been interesting. I thought it would […]
Dave Trading – March 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
February 14 Biotech Update
It is a pretty active morning for news, so I will dive right into the events as they are pretty interesting. I am not convinced that these will be enough to break the sector out higher but they are all generally positive in the longer term. 1. The least interesting news was NBIX earnings that […]
February 13 Biotech Update
The market had a nice follow through yesterday, although for some reason I do not really trust this rally (yet). It would be nice to see a couple days of flat trading but clearly we are in a different regime with volatility this high. Expect more wild intra-day moves even on the days that end […]
February 12 Biotech Update
The rule of thumb is that markets never bottom on a Friday but we at least got a short term bottom as the market rallied into the close. Whether this was simply the bottom of a dead cat bounce or “the” bottom of this correction remains to be seen but given heavily oversold conditions, it […]
February 9 Biotech Update
The broader market looks heavy and it appears that if we end the day red that the weekly losses will be accelerating. Markets do not bottom on a Friday, so if we cannot have a real move higher today, then we will likely be lower again to start next week. We are obviously higher to […]
Sarepta Official Statement Regarding The UK Study Halt
This morning, EP Vantage reported a temporary UK study halt in dosing after “one serious adverse event that could possibly be related to the investigational drug product” but the halt was for the UK only and did not include any other clinical trial which include Belgium, Czechia, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. […]
February 7 Biotech Update
So it looks like we are going to be tied to the broader market for a little while. We are still in the middle of earnings (although most large caps have reported) but it seems unlikely that anything meaningful will be coming out in the near term that would drive meaningful relatively under or over […]
February 6 Biotech Update
There is not a ton of sector specific news but the broader markets are taking everything down. The XIV is closing, which might have unknown consequences. It is only a relatively small ETF but who knows if it will cause short covering and forced liquidation of other positions. It is possible that the collateral damage […]
February 5 Biotech Update
A rough start to the week for the market but we do have some important data from BMY that will be the focus of this note. 1. Overall this was a positive trial where the opdivo/Yervoy combo had a statistically significant PFS benefit over a chemo doublet in NSCLC with tumor mutation burdens (TMB) over […]
February 2 Biotech Update
It looks like the correction continues. Fundamental news does not seem to be matter a lot this week, which seems like typical price action during a correction. This does not seem sector specific and I doubt that it becomes anything more than a correction in a larger bull market but that does not mean it […]
January 31 Biotech Update
We had a nice little correction yesterday but while it was certainly a meaningful move compared to recent price action, it did not really remove any of the real fluff in the sector. That being said it could be enough to reset the “over bought” conditions and lead to a continuation of the rally. While […]
