The sector really is trading without a clear trend. Nothing that has happened this week has created a new trend but the range is narrowing, so I expect next week to provide more clarity as to the next move in the sector. A break below the lows this week likely triggers another leg lower otherwise […]
May 1 Biotech Update
The sector continues to lag. What I see as a little odd is that pharma appears to be outperforming biotech. If Medicare for All was going to collapse the US drug market, why would pharma be immune and be doing well? It is an odd disconnect and speaks to something else going on in the […]
April 30 Biotech Update
The sector remains in a rut. The market is doing well with the bio-pharma the clear laggard. While the mania over the medicare for all worry seems to have abated, the sector clearly did not bounce back. It stopped the free fall but we are still well below the pre-mania levels. So what can we […]
April 25th Biotech Update
Yesterday really ended up offering no real direction. We could not quite rally but we also did not quite collapse. Everything that I talked about yesterday about the trading of the sector also applies today given the lack of clarity. I do think it is telling that these large cap earnings are basically being greeted […]
February 7 Biotech Update
We start off a little weak this morning, which is not completely unexpected given that we are at the top end of the recent range. Obviously it would be nice to see a breakout above the range to start another leg higher but range bound trading after the recent run is not bad at this […]
January 29 Biotech Update
An interesting start to large cap earnings. The sector was weak yesterday and this could be the long awaited pullback (or another head fake). Ideally, the pullback bottoms out in the $73-$75 range on the XBI to form a higher low. While a retest of the recent low around $64 is not impossible it would […]
January 11 Biotech Update
Everyone continues to expect a pullback and yesterday looked like it would be the day that starts the correction but we ended up green again. This has been on the of the strongest JPM weeks I remember (at least from a price action perspective). Yesterday is another brick in the wall of the idea that […]
November 26 Biotech Update
After a nice long holiday break, I figured there might be some more news to start the week but apparently not. The sector is off to a good start but it seems macro driven in that it is simply following the broader markets higher. As long as the broader market remains positive, I suspect the […]
October 31 Biotech Update
Is the sector starting to bottom? It certainly does not feel like it as every gain is followed by more selling. No move higher seems to have any staying power. Positive starts to the day are sold by the end of the day. All that being said bottom and tops looks so clear in hindsight […]
October 29 Biotech Update
Surprisingly not any M&A (I say sarcastically). It is interesting, however, that there are some partnership deals and this makes me wonder if that is the new M&A. It is a relatively cheap way to get access to a particular asset with relatively lower risk especially if most of the biobucks are commercial. It is […]
October 17 Biotech Update
Yesterday was obviously a great day for the sector with everything higher and by a lot. It is not stunning to see some pullback from that move but if there is truly a reinvigorated sector, then you would want to see this red opening reverse into a green day to turn yesterday from a one-off […]
September 13th Biotech Update
We are finally getting a broad snap back rally but it needs to be more than a simple morning rally that is faded as the day goes along. If this rally is not built upon during the day, then odds are it simply reset the RSI and opened up a path to retest the bottom […]
August 24th biotech update
The snoozer of a week continues with the sector still chopping in its range. Perhaps next week we wake up a little but odds are we are stuck in this pattern until the fall conference season begins in September. 1. We will have some news this weekend with the PFE tafamidis data and while odds […]
August 22nd Biotech Update
Still not a ton of news and the sector moved higher with the market taking it a little further from the edge but still well within its range. I am still watching to see how the relatively performance in the sector plays out in that will we see large pharma continue to outperform followed by […]
August 13 Biotech Update
The chop continues and I suspect this week will be no different. There is not any news to start the week that would excite or disappoint, which means the previous trend (of no trend) is the path of least resistance. It is interesting that no one even talks about M&A anymore as that was supposed […]
August 2 Biotech Update
The sector continues to hold up in terms of price action relative to the broader market. If the market can at least stabilize, the sector has a good chance to eventually regain and perhaps break through recent highs. Obviously, all bets are off if the broader market collapses. My inclination is that the tech and […]
July 13 Biotech Update
While we are talking about small numbers and small difference, I would argue that it looks like large caps are finally starting to show some relative strength to SMID. I would argue that this is a better case to build a new breakout than one led by SMID as those moves are likely more driven […]
July 11 Biotech Update
Apparently my effect is now hitting the broader markets as they are pretty weak today. It could be more trade tensions with the Trump administration amping up the trade war rhetoric with China but I would not discount my impact. That being said I would not be looking for the sector to trade green in […]
April 12 Biotech Update
I am still convinced that the biggest macro risk for the market remains Syria. While there remains a chance that there is ultimately no attack, it seems that the past couple days has been a buildup of assets around Syria to allow for a more robust campaign. The final decision has not been made but […]
April 5 Biotech Update
The sector finally got its bounce and took some of the beaten down large caps with it. The sector (and market more generally) needs to follow through on this move and I do not mean a couple more hours but days of consolidation. A little back filling is fine but we cannot have another one […]
